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Green Shoots in the Non-oil Economy – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Non oil

The latest national accounts released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that GDP grew by 4.0% y/y in Q3 ’21 compared with 5.0% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21.

This growth can be partly attributed to positive base effects, steady progress in stemming the spread of the coronavirus and resumption of economic/business activity. The oil economy contracted by -10.7% y/y in Q3 ‘21 compared with a contraction of -12.7% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21. Meanwhile, the non-oil economy grew by 5.4% y/y compared with 6.7% y/y recorded in Q2 ‘21.

In our chart, we highlight the top seven performing sectors in the non-oil economy, among those accounting for at least 1% of GDP.

The best performer was the finance and insurance sector which posted a growth rate of 23.2% y/y compared with a contraction of -2.5% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21. Meanwhile, within the sector, the financial institutions segment grew by 25.5% y/y compared with a contraction of -4.5% y/y in Q2 ‘21. This healthy improvement is also reflected in the strong performance of tier 1 banks as seen in their respective Q3 ’21 earnings report.

The second-best performer was the transportation and storage sector which grew by 20.6% y/y compared to 76.8% y/y posted in Q2 ’21. The sector contributed 1.0% to GDP. The major drivers of the sector were rail transport segment (59.9% y/y) and air transport segment (33.3% y/y). This was largely due to positive base effects and improvements in air and rail passenger traffic as global economies lifted lockdown measures. Road transport, which makes up 79% of the entire sector, grew by 21.1% y/y.

The trade sector grew by 11.9% y/y in Q3 ‘21 compared with 22.5% y/y recorded in the previous sector. The sector contributed 14.9% to GDP. We suspect that the release of pentup demand, particularly for consumers within the middle-income bracket may have supported trade activities.

The information and communications sector grew by 9.7% y/y in Q3 ’21 compared with 5.6% recorded in Q2 ‘21. Its major contributor, telecommunications, posted a growth rate of 10.9% y/y compared with 5.9% y/y recorded in the previous quarter. This expansion is mainly due to an increase in demand for voice, data, and digital services.

Additionally, entertainment via streaming services has picked up significantly and contributed to the segment’s growth.

The manufacturing sector grew by 4.3% y/y in Q3 ’21 compared with 3.5% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21. The sector contributed 9.0% to total GDP. Growth was significant in the chemical and pharmaceutical products segment (10.0% y/y), due to sustained demand for pharmaceutical products by the health sector. Its largest segment, food, beverages, and tobacco grew by 6.1% y/y, and the cement segment expanded by 5.7% y/y in Q3 ’21.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to impact domestic manufacturing positively. However, to maximise the benefits of the agreement, local manufacturers need to significantly improve their service delivery and product standards.

The construction and real estate sectors grew by 4.1% y/y and 2.3% y/y in Q3 ’21 respectively. The growth registered in both sectors could be attributed to development activities on the back of recommencement of delayed projects which were paused due to the slowdown triggered by the pandemic. The World Bank has estimated that Nigeria would need to invest USD3trn in infrastructure to reduce the infrastructure deficit in the country.

Based on the FGN’s 2022 budget proposal, N5.4trn (USD12.9bn) has been earmarked for capital expenditure. From this allocation, N1.5trn has been set aside for expenses on infrastructure. This includes provisions for works and housing, power, transport, water resources and aviation.

Looking ahead, we expect growth of 1.5% y/y in Q4 ’21

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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