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Nigeria May Soon Be in Total Darkness — Egbin CEO

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Electricity - Investors King

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Egbin Power Plc, Mr. Dallas Peavey, Jr., in this interview with says the nation may be enveloped in darkness in the coming weeks due to a myriad of challenges in the power sector.

What do you think about the Nigerian power sector almost three years after it was privatised?

I think at this point, we have gone through so many stages. I think the issue here is liquidity. So many of the owners came and they were thinking that they were going to be reaping some sort of returns after the first three years. In reality, nobody realised that they would go through three years and lose money. Our parent company owns Egbin as well as Ikeja Electric. Having said that, we cover a lot of the areas in Nigeria out of our own pocket. We, as a private company, don’t expect to do that.

I think the government is coming up with a plan and working with us to ensure that we get paid and continue to generate power, and go from the current generation of less than 4,000 megawatts to 10,000 MW in the next five years. At least, that is what we are hoping to achieve. We have got a long way to go, but I think we can get there.

Aside from the liquidity challenge, what other issues are hampering the growth of the sector?

Fuel supply is also an issue. The second is transmission; the system is older than Egbin, which is 37 years old. The transmission system is older than that, and they have not done anything towards the revitalisation of the system. They are trying to push almost 5,000MW to the system and it is not capable of taking that. We have to work with the Transmission Company of Nigeria and the government, because it is still owned by the government, to work through those issues.

How is the current economic recession in the country affecting your operations?

We have not laid off anybody and we haven’t cut back on salaries. We haven’t cut back on the mainstay of our workforce simply because we are hoping that we can rectify the gas issues. We hope that the liquidity issues will be resolved with the government so that we can get back to generating 1,320MW, because Nigeria needs power.

Transmission is often regarded as the weakest link in the power value chain, do you think the government should give it out on concession basis, or totally privatise it?

I can only give my opinion, and I think typically the transmission system is weak and probably could have been privatised earlier simply because that is the weakest link and it takes the most investment. I think that Manitoba Hydro is gone away; now, the TCN is back in the hands of the government. I think the government needs to take a look at how they are going to fund the projects that are necessary to strengthen the transmission network; even when we generate our capacity of 1,320MW, we are not sure the system can take that. And we are looking at doubling the capacity of the plant in the next three years. How are they going to take that? The government has to take a hard look at that.

Over the past three years, we have seen capacity upgrade at Egbin, with the plant now having available capacity of 1,320MW; what plans do you have going forward?

We are going to continue to work to ensure that we maintain the 1,320MW, and we just completed the environmental impact assessment for our phase two so that we can double the capacity of Egbin. Our plan is to have up to 3,000MW capacity in the next three years.

Do you have any plans to diversify your sources of fuel for the plant?

We already are doing that. We are looking at using Low Pour Fuel Oil. We are looking at using liquefied natural gas. We are looking at several options so that we are not depending upon the Nigerian Gas Company, because of the constant attacks on the pipelines. Nigeria needs power, even if we have full capacity, the nation needs over 10,000MW today. So, what we need to do is to continue to work with our owners and partners so that we can get fuel, and then work with the TCN so that they can take the power and get it to the nation. Right now, we have got almost 820MW stranded capacity that the nation needs.

Normal generation in Egbin is about 1,320MW. Currently, we are doing about 425MW, only 30 per cent of what we should be generating simply because of gas. The other side that we are having an issue with is that the TCN cannot take the full amount of power that we can generate. Right now, the biggest issue is gas, and we don’t know what the future is going to bring to us in terms of gas supply.

On top of that, we are owed over N86bn by the Federal Government; we have been producing but we haven’t been paid for almost six months. The last amount of money that we got was about 16 per cent of the total bill for the power that we generated for the month.

What are the implications if the debt is not settled as soon as possible?

We can’t continue to operate simply because we don’t have the money to pay for materials. We don’t have the money to pay for repairs and we can’t continue to pay our employers simply because we are owed so much money. We have gone out to banks and different financial entities to borrow the money to continue to do maintenance. You know for banks, the limit is only so much and we have reached that limit.

How has the exchange rate crisis affected your operations?

When we bought the plant three years ago, the exchange rate was N156 to the dollar. Today, the bank rate is N310 to the dollar, double of what it was then. This plant was built 37 years ago by the Japanese. And to do replacement and repairs, the foreign exchange rate is double. So, where are you going to find that? We are being paid in naira, but almost everything that we pay for is in dollars. So, the exchange rate is significantly impacting our ability to continue to operate as well and we are looking to the government to assist us on that, to come up with the solution for us to do that. Also, the scarcity of the dollar to be able to buy these spare parts and continue to do maintenance is impacting us tremendously.

But we, as a private company, have continued to dig deep into our pocket, go to our sister and parent companies to borrow money that the banks can’t loan us to continue to operate. But even so, if we don’t get paid and if we don’t get gas, we can’t continue to generate.

In terms of building power plants, we have not seen a lot in the sector in the past few years, why is this so?

It is a challenge because it requires huge investment. You have to have the capital to come in and build the power plant. A power plant like Egbin will cost you $600 to $700 per megawatt to build and install. Where are you going to find that much money, you are talking about $1.7bn to build the plant? That is a lot of investment. When you are not getting paid and you are owed N86bn, it is hard to attract investors in that kind of marketplace.

The Central Bank of Nigeria recently gave out intervention funds to power firms, what has become of that?

They didn’t give it to us; what they paid to some of the generation companies was what they owed them. It wasn’t guarantees; it wasn’t financing; it wasn’t loans. It was simply the obligations that they owed us; but then, we haven’t got any money. We are still waiting for it.

What do you intend to achieve with the Egbin plant in the next five years?

If we can continue to progress and move forward, by addressing the fuel supply, transmission and the liquidity issues, again we are looking at generating up to 3,000MW in the next three years from this plant alone. Right now, we currently provide 35 per cent of the power in Nigeria. That is a big step. Nigeria needs it and all we do here is to generate power.

Power supply appears to have improved slightly with generation rising above 3,500MW from a record low of 1,400MW in May amid militant attacks on oil and gas facilities, what is responsible for this?

That is because we have had more rains, leading to increase in generation from the hydro power plants. But in the next few months, there won’t be any more rain and so the output from the hydro power plants will dissipate and we will be back to generating from Egbin, because it is the largest in sub-Saharan.

Are you worried about the current state of the power sector?

Absolutely, because everybody is working so hard to come with the resolution but we need the government’s help and support because we need the money that it owes.

If that is not done any time soon, what will happen?

Then it is going to be dark in Nigeria soon.

Do you think the core investors who acquired the power plants are doing enough in terms of investment?

I think they have invested. Again, they have gone three years without any return. Second is that they have invested a lot of capital to get to this point. Lastly, they have explored every means of financial support that they can get, whether from banks, financial entities, the World Bank, IFC and others; and in our case, from our parent company. Everybody runs out money sooner or later if they don’t get paid.

What is the current level of Egbin’s indebtedness to the banks?

Right now, it is about $325m; how do you continue to sustain that? You can’t pay the principal, so how can you pay the interest? It is a difficult situation. We had to continue to borrow money to do the repairs, to buy the materials for the replacement of the pumps, modules and transformers because this is a 37-year-old plant; the equipment that we have is 37 years old. It wasn’t maintained when we bought the plant and so we continued to overhaul each one of the six units. We had to modify everything to do the repairs. The equipment that we utilise in the plant is not manufactured in Nigeria or Africa; so we had to go back to Japan, Korea and US to buy these spare parts.

Right now, because of gas and transmission issues, we only have three of our six units running. Each one of our unit can produce 220MW. For a megawatt, that is about 100,000 people that it provides power for. We are helping to stabilise the national grid. If you notice, over the last six weeks, we haven’t had a grid failure or system collapse because of Egbin. Egbin is the sole reason there has not been a total system collapse in the nation, because we regulate everything coming to Lagos all the way to Abuja and farther North.

Are you satisfied with the current electricity tariff?

We are not satisfied with the tariff simply because it is not functioning the way it is supposed to. It is supposed to cover your costs; today, it is not covering our costs. We have a shortfall because the cost of gas, the transportation of that gas and the cost of operating are far above the Multi-Year Tariff Order II. The MYTO II was set up to cover those costs, but it is not doing that. We are not looking for returns on our investment yet; we are trying to continue to invest in Nigeria but we have to be paid the bills to do that.

Does it mean you are not making any profit since you acquired the plant?

We have never made a profit. We are owed N86bn and we have lost $300m in the last three years directly out of our pocket because we haven’t been paid and because we have invested that money and we have got no returns. We don’t expect the returns immediately, but at some point, every business has to be able to sustain itself with profits or returns on its investment.

When do you intend to start making profits?

We don’t know. Right now, we are just trying to survive and that is not going on very well. We are hoping and praying that it is going to get better.

What specific policy or action do you expect from the government?

We need the government to pay its bills. Everybody is blaming the distribution companies; the government needs to pay its bills.

How has Egbin Power affected its host communities in the last three years?

Today, we were able to put together a programme to offer scholarships to academically excellent students and students from the local regions that otherwise would not have the opportunity to attend schools like Powerfields. We think what this is going to do is that it is going to enrich the communities, Egbin and the nation.

It is part of our Corporate Social Responsibility but it is also different. The scholarship is for a full year per student. It will cater for all the expenses and costs in the full academic year, and if they continue on with the excellence of their academic programmes, they will benefit from the scholarship programme to the university level. We have probably spent at least N750m in the last three years on our CSR programme.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Fitch Ratings Raises Egypt’s Credit Outlook to Positive Amid $57 Billion Bailout

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Fitch Ratings has upgraded Egypt’s credit outlook to positive, reflecting growing confidence in the North African nation’s economic prospects following an international bailout of $57 billion.

The upgrade comes as Egypt secured a landmark bailout package to bolster its cash-strapped economy and provide much-needed relief amidst economic challenges exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the global pandemic.

Fitch affirmed Egypt’s credit rating at B-, positioning it six notches below investment grade. However, the shift in outlook to positive shows the country’s progress in addressing external financing risks and implementing crucial economic reforms.

The positive outlook follows Egypt’s recent agreements, including a $35 billion investment deal with the United Arab Emirates as well as additional support from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

According to Fitch Ratings, the reduction in near-term external financing risks can be attributed to the significant investment pledges from the UAE, coupled with Egypt’s adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and the implementation of monetary tightening measures.

These measures have enabled Egypt to navigate its foreign exchange challenges and mitigate the impact of years of managed currency policies.

The recent jumbo interest rate hike has also facilitated the devaluation of the Egyptian pound, addressing one of the country’s most pressing economic issues.

Egypt has faced mounting economic pressures in recent years, including foreign exchange shortages exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the region.

Challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and security threats in the Israel-Gaza region have further strained the country’s economic stability.

In response, Egyptian authorities have embarked on a series of reform efforts aimed at enhancing economic resilience and promoting private-sector growth.

These efforts include the sale of state-owned assets, curbing government spending, and reducing the influence of the military in the economy.

While Fitch Ratings’ positive outlook signals confidence in Egypt’s economic trajectory, other rating agencies have also expressed optimism.

S&P Global Ratings has assigned Egypt a B- rating with a positive outlook, while Moody’s Ratings assigns a Caa1 rating with a positive outlook.

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Fitch Ratings Lifts Nigeria’s Credit Outlook to Positive Amidst Reform Progress

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fitch Ratings - Investors King

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive, citing the country’s reform progress under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

This decision is a turning point for Africa’s largest economy and signals growing confidence in its economic trajectory.

The announcement comes six months after Fitch Ratings acknowledged the swift pace of reforms initiated since President Tinubu assumed office in May of the previous year.

According to Fitch, the positive outlook reflects the government’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at B-, underscoring its confidence in the country’s ability to navigate economic challenges and drive sustainable growth.

Previously, Fitch had expressed concerns about governance issues, security challenges, high inflation, and a heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.

However, the ratings agency expressed optimism that President Tinubu’s market-friendly reforms would address these challenges, paving the way for increased investment and economic growth.

President Tinubu’s administration has implemented a series of policy changes aimed at reducing subsidies on fuel and electricity while allowing for a more flexible exchange rate regime.

These measures, coupled with a significant depreciation of the Naira and savings from subsidy reductions, have bolstered the government’s fiscal position and attracted investor confidence.

Fitch Ratings highlighted that these reforms have led to a reduction in distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies.

As a result, sizable inflows have returned to Nigeria’s official foreign exchange market, providing further support for the economy.

Looking ahead, the Nigerian government aims to increase its tax-to-revenue ratio and reduce the ratio of revenue allocated to debt service.

Efforts to achieve these targets have been met with challenges, including a sharp increase in local interest rates to curb inflation and manage public debt.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s economic outlook appears promising, with Fitch Ratings’ positive credit outlook reflecting growing optimism among investors and stakeholders.

President Tinubu’s administration remains committed to implementing reforms that promote sustainable growth, foster investment, and enhance the country’s economic resilience.

As Nigeria continues on its path of reform and economic transformation, stakeholders are hopeful that the positive momentum signaled by Fitch Ratings will translate into tangible benefits for the country and its people.

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Seme Border Sees 90% Decline in Trade Activity Due to CFA Fluctuations

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The Seme Border, a vital trade link between Nigeria and its neighboring countries, has reported a 90% decline in trade activity due to the volatile fluctuations in the CFA franc against the Nigerian naira.

Licensed customs agents operating at the border have voiced concerns over the adverse impact of currency instability on cross-border trade.

In a conversation with the media in Lagos, Mr. Godon Ogonnanya, the Special Adviser to the President of the National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwarders, Seme Chapter, shed light on the drastic reduction in trade activities at the border post.

Ogonnanya explained the pivotal role of the CFA franc in facilitating trade transactions, saying the border’s bustling activities were closely tied to the relative strength of the CFA against the naira.

According to Ogonnanya, trade activities thrived at the Seme Border when the CFA franc was weaker compared to the naira.

However, the fluctuating nature of the CFA exchange rate has led to uncertainty and instability in trade transactions, causing a significant downturn in business operations at the border.

“The CFA rate is the reason activities are low here. In those days when the CFA was a little bit down, activities were much there but now that the rate has gone up, it is affecting the business,” Ogonnanya explained.

The unpredictability of the CFA exchange rate has added complexity to trade operations, with importers facing challenges in budgeting and planning due to sudden shifts in currency values.

Ogonnanya highlighted the cascading effects of currency fluctuations, wherein importers incur additional costs as the value of the CFA rises against the naira during the clearance process.

Despite the significant drop in trade activity, Ogonnanya expressed optimism that the situation would gradually improve at the border.

He attributed his optimism to the recent policy interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which have led to the stabilization of the naira and restored confidence among traders.

In addition to currency-related challenges, customs agents cited discrepancies in clearance procedures between Cotonou Port and the Seme Border as a contributing factor to the decline in trade.

Importers face additional costs and complexities in clearing goods at both locations, discouraging trade activities and leading to a substantial decrease in business volume.

The decline in trade activity at the Seme Border underscores the urgent need for policy measures to address currency volatility and streamline trade processes.

As stakeholders navigate these challenges, there is a collective call for collaborative efforts between government agencies and industry players to revive cross-border trade and foster economic growth in the region.

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