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Fuel Crisis Looms over Non-Supply of Crude to Oil Traders, Forex Challenges

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Barely four months after the federal government adjusted the pump price of petrol upwards from N86.50 to N145 per litre to stabilise product importation and distribution, oil traders have raised concern over likely scarcity of the product.

The fear expressed by the marketers stemmed from the alleged inability of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to supply crude to some oil traders and refineries in exchange for refined products, under the Direct Sales-Direct Purchase (DSDP) contractual arrangements initiated with some selected oil traders and foreign refineries some months ago.

The marketers were also alarmed by the increasing challenges facing them in accessing foreign exchange, and threatened that they might abandon petrol importation in the hands of only the NNPC, potentially plunging the country into another energy crisis.

They warned that the pegging of the pump price at N145 was based on N285 exchange rate and that the depreciation of the Naira in the inter-bank market to an average of N315 has created a huge gap left to be filled. Warning that it was not feasible for the price to remain at N145 with the current FX reality.

But the Group Managing Director of NNPC, Dr. Maikanti Baru has dismissed the fear of possible scarcity, saying that the corporation has continued to meet its obligations to marketers and foreign refineries in the areas of foreign exchange allocation and supply of crude oil under its DSDP contracts with the oil traders.

While the marketers alleged that the corporation has defaulted in the supply of crude oil to the foreign refineries, Baru dismissed this claim, revealing that NNPC currently accounts for 90 per cent of petrol imported into the country and has 1.3 billion litres of petrol in reserves “and is not about to let the country go through another crisis of scarcity”.

Following the controversy, which trailed the NNPC’s Offshore Processing Arrangement (OPA, the corporation had adopted the DSDP framework under which it provides crude to selected traders and refineries in return for petroleum products in full and extra margins, unlike the OPA.

DSDP also eliminates all the cost elements of middlemen and gives NNPC the latitude to take control of sales and purchase of crude oil transaction with its partners.

But sources close to the marketers said the corporation had defaulted in the supply of crude oil to the foreign refineries, thus threatening the steady supply of petroleum products in the country.

According to them, lack of crude oil due to the attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta, has hampered the corporation’s ability to meet its contractual obligations under the DSDP.

The marketers said that since the programme started, the NNPC had not been able to supply crude oil to the oil traders.

“The militants stopped almost all the onshore production and because of this, NNPC has no crude to supply to the traders. The oil traders supplied petrol initially but stopped when the NNPC was not bringing crude. The traders had to stop because they did not want a repeat of the 2008/2009 crisis when they were indebted to the tune of over $3 billion due to NNPC’s inability to meet obligations. Fresh crisis is looming.”

Having lost over 70 per cent onshore and shallow water production to militant attacks, the NNPC can no longer access the 445,000 barrels per day allocation to the refineries, which is used to service the corporation’s DSDP agreement.

With the loss of production from the traditional terrains, the country’s oil revenue is currently derived solely from deep offshore production where the NNPC has Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) arrangement with some international oil companies (IOCs).

The deep offshore fields sustaining Nigeria’s crude oil production include: Shell’s 225,000 barrels per day capacity Bonga field; Chevron’s 250,000 barrels per day capacity Agbami field; Total’s 185,000 bpd Akpo and 180,000 bpd Usan deepwater fields; as well as ExxonMobil’s 190,000 barrels per day Erha field.

Also Total’s 200,000 bpd Egina deepwater field being developed at the cost of $16 billion will start production in 2017 after the $3.3 billion Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) vessel arrives the country in March or April 2017.

However, some of the five producing fields have not attained their nameplate production capacity.

Baru however in a telephone chat yesterday said there was no looming scarcity.

On the issue of alleged non-supply of crude to the traders, Baru said “at the moment, we have been giving them and I have also done a tender as a backup in case I have any issue.”

“So, there is no cause for alarm,” he added.

Also speaking on the foreign exchange challenges, Baru stated that NNPC has been assisting some of the marketers with proven financial capacity to pay for foreign exchange provided by International Oil Companies (IOCs).

“The criteria is important because we could give some of them the foreign exchange, but they may not have the capacity to pay for it. We checked with their banks to confirm that they have the financial capacity because we don’t want a situation where we give them the forex and its diverted or they can’t pay for it. So we carry out a thorough evaluation. We have NNPC, Central Bank and also PPPRA representatives on the committee that evaluates them on the basis of capacity to perform.

“And once we are satisfied on that basis, we now give them forex. To say there is no forex, I don’t think it is correct. At the moment as I am talking to you, I have over 1.3 billion litres and that is more than enough for this September. We have sufficient quantities and not in any scarcity. And we also have direct sales, direct purchase where I give them crude oil and they bring in petrol for me or any product that I choose to bring in,” Baru explained.

But some marketers who faulted Baru’s claim, alleged that the challenges of accessing foreign exchange has also hampered their ability to import petrol, thus threatening product availability.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Steady as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope, Red Sea Attacks Persist

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Amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts, oil prices remained relatively stable as hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas emerged, while attacks in the Red Sea continued to escalate.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw a modest rise of 27 cents to $88.67 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 30 cents to $82.93 a barrel.

The optimism stems from negotiations between Israel and Hamas with talks in Cairo aiming to broker a potential ceasefire.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis persist, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, emphasized the importance of a concrete agreement to drive market sentiment, stating that the oil market awaits a finalized deal between the conflicting parties.

Meanwhile, investor focus remains on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review, particularly in light of persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for any rate adjustments have been pushed out due to stubborn inflation, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and impacting oil demand.

Concerns over demand also weigh on sentiment, with ANZ analysts noting a decline in premiums for diesel and heating oil compared to crude oil, signaling subdued demand prospects.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and market dynamics evolve, observers closely monitor developments in both the Middle East and global economic policies for their potential impact on oil prices and market stability.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Sink 1% as Israel-Hamas Talks in Cairo Ease Middle East Tensions

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices declined on Monday, shedding 1% of their value as Israel-Hamas peace negotiations in Cairo alleviated fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

The easing tensions coupled with U.S. inflation data contributed to the subdued market sentiment and erased gains made earlier.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by as much as 1.09% to 8.52 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell by 0.99% to $83.02 a barrel.

The initiation of talks to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas played a pivotal role in moderating geopolitical concerns, according to analysts.

A delegation from Hamas was set to engage in peace discussions in Cairo on Monday, as confirmed by a Hamas official to Reuters.

Also, statements from the White House indicated that Israel had agreed to address U.S. concerns regarding the potential humanitarian impacts of the proposed invasion.

Market observers also underscored the significance of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review on May 1.

Anticipation of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee added to investor nervousness, particularly in light of Friday’s data revealing a 2.7% rise in U.S. inflation over the previous 12 months, surpassing the Fed’s 2% target.

This heightened inflationary pressure reduced the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts, which are typically seen as stimulative for economic growth and oil demand.

Independent market analysts highlighted the role of the strengthening U.S. dollar in exacerbating the downward pressure on oil prices, as higher interest rates tend to attract capital flows and bolster the dollar’s value, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Moreover, concerns about weakening demand surfaced with China’s industrial profit growth slowing down in March, as reported by official data. This trend signaled potential challenges for oil consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.

However, amidst the current market dynamics, optimism persists regarding potential upside in oil prices. Analysts noted that improvements in U.S. inventory data and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) could reverse the downward trend.

Also, previous gains in oil prices, fueled by concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, indicate the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the region.

Despite these fluctuations, the market appeared to brush aside potential disruptions to supply resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries over the weekend. The attack temporarily halted operations at the Slavyansk refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to a plant executive.

As oil markets navigate through geopolitical tensions and economic indicators, the outcome of ongoing negotiations and future data releases will likely shape the trajectory of oil prices in the coming days.

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Cocoa Fever Sweeps Market: Prices Set to Break $15,000 per Ton Barrier

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Cocoa

The cocoa market is experiencing an unprecedented surge with prices poised to shatter the $15,000 per ton barrier.

The cocoa industry, already reeling from supply shortages and production declines in key regions, is now facing a frenzy of speculative trading and bullish forecasts.

At the recent World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed unanimous confidence in the continuation of the cocoa rally.

According to their predictions, New York futures could trade above $15,000 a ton before the year’s end, marking yet another milestone in the relentless ascent of cocoa prices.

The surge in cocoa prices has been fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.

Shortages of cocoa beans have left buyers scrambling for supplies and willing to pay exorbitant premiums, exacerbating the market tightness.

To cope with the supply crunch, Ivory Coast and Ghana have resorted to rolling over contracts totaling around 400,000 tons of cocoa, further exacerbating the scarcity.

Traders are increasingly turning to cocoa stocks held in exchanges in London and New York, despite concerns about their quality, as the shortage of high-quality beans intensifies.

Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, noted that quality considerations have taken a backseat for most processors amid the supply crunch, leading them to accept cocoa from exchanges despite its perceived inferiority.

This shift in dynamics is expected to further deplete stocks and provide additional support to cocoa prices.

The cocoa rally has already seen prices surge by about 160% this year, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark in New York.

This meteoric rise has put significant pressure on traders and chocolate makers, who are grappling with rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market.

Despite the challenges posed by soaring cocoa prices, stakeholders across the value chain have demonstrated a willingness to absorb the cost increases.

Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, noted that the market has been able to pass on price increases from chocolate makers to consumers, highlighting the resilience of the cocoa industry.

However, concerns linger about the eventual impact of the price surge on consumers, with some chocolate makers still covered for supplies.

According to Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, the full effects of the price increase may take six months to a year to materialize, posing a potential future challenge for consumers.

As the cocoa market continues to navigate uncharted territory all eyes remain on the unfolding developments, with traders, analysts, and industry stakeholders bracing for further volatility and potential record-breaking price levels in the days ahead.

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