Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook August 1 – 5

Published

8 years ago

July 31, 2016

Global risks and financial markets’ volatility increased after Janet Yellen led FOMC held rates unchanged on Wednesday, citing global uncertainty and inconsistency in the economic figures. The situation was further compounded by the Bank of Japan decision to keep widely speculated policy rate unchanged but increased exchange traded funds by $26 billion a year.

Last week was packed with mixed economic report, the US economy expanded at a 1.2 percent rate in the second quarter of the year, falling below 2.6 percent forecast by economists. While Unemployment claims rose 14,000 to 266,000 in the week ending 22 July, but housing sector remains moderate with a solid consumer confidence.

Overall, the US economic outlook remains mixed, one because the Fed said risks to the US economy had reduced but policy makers need more time to assess Brexit possible impacts on global economics. Two, if the risks to the US economy has subsided while leaving rates unchanged?, although the Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that the Fed will raise borrowing costs gradually, but the financial markets already priced out that possibility this year and interpreted the comments as less hawkish, sending the US dollar down against most of its counterparts on Friday. This week, I will be looking at GBPJPY, AUDUSD, and USDJPY.

GBPJPY

The UK economy is enmeshed in a negative perception after the Britons exit the European Union, even though post-Brexit effect is yet to crystallize, investors and businesses are already making adjustments to their investments and holding back on long term plans to avoid being caught up in potential recession. Although, the GDP rose more than expected in the second quarter of the year, the data were collected prior to Brexit. While few data collated ‘post-Brexit’ have shown signs of slowdown in consumer spending that has been supporting the economy since oil glut started.

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On the other hand, the yen continued to gain after the Bank of Japan limited stimulus expansion to manage investors’ overzealous activities that could daunt whatever confidence is left of the economy. Technically, the GBPJPY has been on a downward trend since 25 June 2015, but with the yen renewed gain below 135.95 price level, the GBPJPY might have started continuation that will open up 129.86 support level. As long as price remains below 135.95 resistance level, I remain bearish on this pair with 129.86 as target.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar is overpriced and has forced the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider additional rate cuts to pressure costs and boost consumer prices. Currently, traders have priced in 25 basis points cut to 1.5 percent record low against RBA monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

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The Aussie dollar has gained around 528 pips since May 24 to peak at 76.71 cents against the dollar. If the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent. The AUDUSD pair is expected to plunge below ascending channel started in May as shown above. A sustained break of 0.7505 support level should attract enough sell orders to force 0.7379 first target, and 0.7143 second target in the days to come. So I remain bearish on AUDUSD.

USDJPY

Since both the Fed and Bank of Japan failed to impress investors this pair has lost over 363 pips. As long as 104.25 resistance level holds. I am bearish on this pair with 99.16 as the target.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,380 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

Published

18 hours ago

May 3, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,380
Selling Rate: ₦1,370

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,350
Selling Rate: N1,340

Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.