Connect with us

Forex

Pound Set to Extend Decline as Investors Anticipate BOE Rate Cut

Published

on

160624_INV_PoundBrexit

The pound looks set to extend its decline next week, when traders and economists predict the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years.

Sterling, which posted its third consecutive monthly drop against the dollar in July, has weakened versus all of its 31 major peers in the past three months. Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union, along with recent economic data which underscored the ensuing setback to consumer confidence and business activity, have boosted speculation that the BOE will loosen monetary policy on Aug. 4.

All but two of the 46 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast policy makers led by Governor Mark Carney will cut the key interest rate from a record-low 0.5 percent. While the median estimate in a separate survey was for the BOE to maintain its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($498 billion), the highest forecast of 525 billion pounds underlined the uncertainty over the extent of the BOE’s stimulus measures. The central bank will also release its quarterly Inflation Report.

“I think it’s a done deal that we’re going to get easing next week, but the question is just how aggressive,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “If we get a package of measures and not just a rate cut it will reinforce the weakening trend for the pound.”

Monthly Declines

The pound slid 0.3 percent this month to $1.3272 as of 5 p.m. London time Friday, having tumbled almost 9 percent in the previous two months. It dropped to a 31-year low of $1.2798 on July 6. Sterling weakened for a second month versus the euro, losing 0.9 percent to 84.16 pence.

Hardman said the U.K. currency was likely to end the year at $1.24, a level last seen in 1985.

BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale shifted from his usually hawkish stance this week and supported immediate stimulus, boosting speculation the central bank will ease policy. Swaps signaled a 100 percent chance of a rate cut next week.
With such odds priced in, there is a risk policy measures fall short of what markets are predicting. The BOE voted 8-1 to refrain from any action this month, which prompted the pound to rally to its highest level in two weeks against the dollar.

‘Shock and Awe’

With traders bracing for the BOE to ease policy next week, Hardman said “it is a higher hurdle for them to out-dove current market expectations” and that could “help to potentially dampen the negative pound reaction.”

Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London, said the BOE may need to do more than the market is predicting to impact heavily on the currency.

“To be more bearish than what is factored, I would suggest a 40 basis-point cut and 50 billion pounds further on the QE front,” Jones said. “That would take it to beyond expectations and should provide a bit of an element of shock and awe. That would probably be the upper limits of what we could expect in terms of further measures.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Friday, September 17, 2021

Published

on

Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Friday as it plunged to N570 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N770 and N655 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N565, N775 and N655 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/09/2021 560/570* 763/770* 647/655* 70/75 430/440 310/330
16/09/2021 560/570 763/770 647/655 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/09/2021 555/565 760/775 640/655
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
9/16/2021 US DOLLAR 409.57 410.07 410.57
9/16/2021 POUNDS STERLING 566.763 567.4549 568.1468
9/16/2021 EURO 482.0229 482.6114 483.1998
9/16/2021 SWISS FRANC 442.6827 443.2231 443.7635
9/16/2021 YEN 3.7434 3.748 3.7526
9/16/2021 CFA 0.7191 0.7291 0.7391
9/16/2021 WAUA 583.3071 584.0192 584.7313
9/16/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 63.5338 63.6118 63.6898
9/16/2021 RIYAL 109.2012 109.3345 109.4678
9/16/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 28.3101 28.3446 28.3792

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

Continue Reading

Forex

CBN Goes After Abokifx, Freezes Bank Accounts for Publishing Black Market Rates

Published

on

Abokifx - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks to freeze all the bank accounts associated with AbokiFX and its owner, Oniwinde Olusegun Adedotun, for publishing foreign exchange rates other than the rates determined by the CBN.

The apex bank had warned publishers to desist from publishing forex rates determined by the unregulated parallel market, popularly known as the black market, where speculators and hoarders largely manipulate the nation’s foreign exchange rates as seen in recent weeks.

In an email to publishers by the NGN Project, presumably acting on behalf of the CBN, the organisation had quoted section 11 sub-section 1(c) and 2 (a,b) of the National Economic Intelligence Committee Act of 2004 that stated “it shall be an offence for any person, association of individuals or body corporate (whether public or private) to publish or cause to be published exchange and interest rates other than the rates determined by the Bank from time to time.”

The Act stipulated N100,000 fine or imprisonment for a term of two years or both for individual and N500,000 fine and suspension or revocation of certificate of registration or cerificate of incorporation for association or individuals or corporate body.

This was after the central bank halted the sale of forex to bureau de change operators after accusing them of aiding the activities of criminals at the unregulated black market and been a channel for illicit financial flow. The move, which resulted in chronic forex scarcity and all time high foreign exchange rate, has forced the apex bank to go after publishers in effort to discourage people from patronising the black market and to force Nigerians to reject the unreasonable exchange rate of N567 to a United States Dollar and approach their banks for N412 to N415 per US Dollars.

Despite covid-19 challenges and limited forex generation, the apex bank has continued to support the Nigerian Naira and go after forex manipulators.

The NGN Project had described AbokiFX.com and its owner has criminals ‘committing crimes against the Nigerian state’. See the email CBN sent to publishers below.

 

Continue Reading

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Thursday, September 16, 2021

Published

on

Naira - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Thursday as it plunged to N570 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N770 and N655 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N555, N765 and N645 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 560/570 763/770 647/655 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

 

Continue Reading




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending