The pound looks set to extend its decline next week, when traders and economists predict the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years.
Sterling, which posted its third consecutive monthly drop against the dollar in July, has weakened versus all of its 31 major peers in the past three months. Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union, along with recent economic data which underscored the ensuing setback to consumer confidence and business activity, have boosted speculation that the BOE will loosen monetary policy on Aug. 4.
All but two of the 46 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast policy makers led by Governor Mark Carney will cut the key interest rate from a record-low 0.5 percent. While the median estimate in a separate survey was for the BOE to maintain its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($498 billion), the highest forecast of 525 billion pounds underlined the uncertainty over the extent of the BOE’s stimulus measures. The central bank will also release its quarterly Inflation Report.
“I think it’s a done deal that we’re going to get easing next week, but the question is just how aggressive,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “If we get a package of measures and not just a rate cut it will reinforce the weakening trend for the pound.”
The pound slid 0.3 percent this month to $1.3272 as of 5 p.m. London time Friday, having tumbled almost 9 percent in the previous two months. It dropped to a 31-year low of $1.2798 on July 6. Sterling weakened for a second month versus the euro, losing 0.9 percent to 84.16 pence.
Hardman said the U.K. currency was likely to end the year at $1.24, a level last seen in 1985.
BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale shifted from his usually hawkish stance this week and supported immediate stimulus, boosting speculation the central bank will ease policy. Swaps signaled a 100 percent chance of a rate cut next week.
With such odds priced in, there is a risk policy measures fall short of what markets are predicting. The BOE voted 8-1 to refrain from any action this month, which prompted the pound to rally to its highest level in two weeks against the dollar.
‘Shock and Awe’
With traders bracing for the BOE to ease policy next week, Hardman said “it is a higher hurdle for them to out-dove current market expectations” and that could “help to potentially dampen the negative pound reaction.”
Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London, said the BOE may need to do more than the market is predicting to impact heavily on the currency.
“To be more bearish than what is factored, I would suggest a 40 basis-point cut and 50 billion pounds further on the QE front,” Jones said. “That would take it to beyond expectations and should provide a bit of an element of shock and awe. That would probably be the upper limits of what we could expect in terms of further measures.”
Naira Plunges to N621 at Black Market
The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure at the unregulated parallel market popularly known as the black market on Tuesday.
The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure at the unregulated parallel market popularly known as the black market on Tuesday. The Naira exchanged at N621 to a United States Dollar amid persistent foreign exchange scarcity.
At the Investors and Exporters’ forex window, the local currency dropped to N425.75 against the United States Dollar after opening the day at N422.25/US$1 on Monday. Forex traders in that segment of the forex market transacted $47.56 million in value and volume, Investors King reports.
However, Naira improved slightly against the U.S Dollar at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forex section. Naira exchange rate to dollar improved marginally from N415.86/US$ to N415.8.
Against the Pounds Sterling, the Nigerian Naira declined in value to N505.6544 from N500.6539. Similarly, against the European common currency, the local currency dipped slightly in value from N434.0331 to N434.7605.
Oil prices dropped by $6 on Tuesday as concerns over the global recession containing demand outweighed supply concerns.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, declined by $6.65 to $106.85 a barrel while the U.S. West Texas Crude Oil lost $5.65 to $102.78 a barrel.
“Oil is still struggling to break out from its current recessionary malaise as the market pivots away from inflation to economic despair,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management wrote.
Crude oil remains an important commodity for the Nigerian economy given its nature as a mono-product economy. Africa’s largest economy relies on crude oil revenue to service its economy and sustain its currency value against its global counterparts.
However, the inability to prop up crude oil production despite the increase in oil prices continued to hurt Nigeria’s foreign reserves and the availability of dollars in the economy. Hence, the Nigerian Naira is presently trading at a record low of N621 to a United States Dollar.
Cryptocurrency Exchange Rates
Global economic uncertainty ahead of the projected recession continues to dictate the performance of the cryptocurrency space in recent weeks.
Bitcoin extended its decline by 2.37% in the last 24 hours to $19,387.33 per coin. ETH, a token of the Ethereum protocol, lost 3.09% of its value to $1,079 a coin.
Meanwhile, Meta, formerly known as Facebook, has suspended its cryptocurrency project called Libra. Celsius, a cryptocurrency lender, has paused withdrawals and announced plans to cut 150 jobs.
Cryptocurrency space market value dropped from over $2.5 trillion at its peak to about $900 million presently. The huge decline forced several players to cut losses and halt capital inflow into the cryptocurrency space.
Dollar to Naira Today Wednesday, 29 June 2022
The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30.
The dollar to naira exchange rate today Wednesday, 29 June 2022 remained largely unchanged at the Investors and Exporters forex window and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s section of foreign exchange.
The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30. Forex traders transacted 206.65 million dollars at the official Investors and Exporters window on Tuesday.
In the CBN forex section, U.S. Dollar was sold at N415.6 by the apex bank to authorised dealers, slightly better than N415.64 it exchanged on Monday.
Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira appreciated from N509.824 to N508.53. However, against the Euro common currency, the value of the Naira dropped from N433.05 on Monday to N439.5 on Tuesday.
Dollar to Naira Black Market Exchange Rate
Forex scarcity continued to drag on the Naira value in the unregulated foreign exchange market popularly known as the black market.
On Wednesday, the Naira was exchanged at N614 for a United States Dollar on the black market. Representing another decline of N7 from N607 it was sold two weeks ago.
According to traders in that section of forex, rising demand amid a chronic scarcity is responsible for the wide foreign exchange rate of the local currency and could worsen if developed economies plunge into recession as widely projected.
Inflow into emerging economies like Nigeria will drop, hence impeding the apex bank’s ability to service the economy.
Crude oil extended its gains for four consecutive days on Wednesday after it became obvious that OPEC and its allies will not be able to meet their targets as projected.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, appreciated to $120 a barrel on Wednesday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose from $99.33 per barrel a week ago to $112.37 per barrel.
According to Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA, said “A surprise drop by US API Crude Inventories by 3.8 million barrels helped the bullish momentum, with markets ignoring the rise in refined product stocks. Disruptions to Libyan and Ecuadorian production were supportive, but the Macron’s remarks yesterday around Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s limited production capacity seems to have been the main driver.”
Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate, June 21, 2022
The Naira was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.
The Nigerian Naira remained largely flat against its global counterparts at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) section of foreign exchange on Tuesday.
The local currency was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.
The Euro common currency was the exception as the Naira declined by N1.308 from N437.4937 on Monday to N438.8017 Tuesday.
CBN Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Buying and Selling Rates
It is important to note that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rates are the rates the apex bank sells and buys from Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).
How Much is a Dollar to Naira in Black Market Today?
However, in the unregulated black market. The Naira remained weak against the United States Dollar and other global currencies. In Lagos and Abuja, the Nigerian Naira was exchanged at N610 to a United States Dollar, while at Ibadan it was sold at N605.
Operators are buying at N580 per US$1.
|Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN)||Black Market Exchange Rate Today|
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, traded at $109 per barrel on Tuesday as the expected surge in summer demand outweighs supply concerns. However, a global recession could force prices at some point this year.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA, in a note to Investors King said “Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing.”
The unregulated cryptocurrency space remained largely in the red. However, Bitcoin, the world’s most dominant digital asset, pared losses to $21,258.31, representing an increase of 4.66%.
ETH, the token of the Ethereum protocol, appreciated by 3.80% to $1,158.30 a coin. Similarly, BNB inched higher by 3.52% to $224.16 a coin.
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