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Forex Weekly Outlook August 1 – 5

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Dollar

Global risks and financial markets’ volatility increased after Janet Yellen led FOMC held rates unchanged on Wednesday, citing global uncertainty and inconsistency in the economic figures. The situation was further compounded by the Bank of Japan decision to keep widely speculated policy rate unchanged but increased exchange traded funds by $26 billion a year.

Last week was packed with mixed economic report, the US economy expanded at a 1.2 percent rate in the second quarter of the year, falling below 2.6 percent forecast by economists. While Unemployment claims rose 14,000 to 266,000 in the week ending 22 July, but housing sector remains moderate with a solid consumer confidence.

Overall, the US economic outlook remains mixed, one because the Fed said risks to the US economy had reduced but policy makers need more time to assess Brexit possible impacts on global economics. Two, if the risks to the US economy has subsided while leaving rates unchanged?, although the Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that the Fed will raise borrowing costs gradually, but the financial markets already priced out that possibility this year and interpreted the comments as less hawkish, sending the US dollar down against most of its counterparts on Friday. This week, I will be looking at GBPJPY, AUDUSD, and USDJPY.

GBPJPY

The UK economy is enmeshed in a negative perception after the Britons exit the European Union, even though post-Brexit effect is yet to crystallize, investors and businesses are already making adjustments to their investments and holding back on long term plans to avoid being caught up in potential recession. Although, the GDP rose more than expected in the second quarter of the year, the data were collected prior to Brexit. While few data collated ‘post-Brexit’ have shown signs of slowdown in consumer spending that has been supporting the economy since oil glut started.

GBPJPYDaily

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On the other hand, the yen continued to gain after the Bank of Japan limited stimulus expansion to manage investors’ overzealous activities that could daunt whatever confidence is left of the economy. Technically, the GBPJPY has been on a downward trend since 25 June 2015, but with the yen renewed gain below 135.95 price level, the GBPJPY might have started continuation that will open up 129.86 support level. As long as price remains below 135.95 resistance level, I remain bearish on this pair with 129.86 as target.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar is overpriced and has forced the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider additional rate cuts to pressure costs and boost consumer prices. Currently, traders have priced in 25 basis points cut to 1.5 percent record low against RBA monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

AUDUSDDaily

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The Aussie dollar has gained around 528 pips since May 24 to peak at 76.71 cents against the dollar. If the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent. The AUDUSD pair is expected to plunge below ascending channel started in May as shown above. A sustained break of 0.7505 support level should attract enough sell orders to force 0.7379 first target, and 0.7143 second target in the days to come. So I remain bearish on AUDUSD.

USDJPY

Since both the Fed and Bank of Japan failed to impress investors this pair has lost over 363 pips. As long as 104.25 resistance level holds. I am bearish on this pair with 99.16 as the target.

USDJPYDaily

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CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Forex

CBN Raises Customs Forex from N381/US$1 to N404.97/US$

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Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers

The Central Bank of Nigeria has raised the Naira exchange rate for cargo clearance from N381/US$1 to N404.97/US$1.

This was confirmed by Uche Ejesieme, the Public Relations Officer (PRO), Tin Can Island Customs Command.

The PRO explained that it was not the customs job description to raise the foreign exchange rate but that of the central bank.

The N24 difference has been implemented on the customs system managed by Web Fontaine.

Commenting on the situation, Kayode Farinto, the Vice President of the Association of Nigerian Licensed Customs Agents, said the increase would further escalate inflation on import goods and hurt consumers’ buying power given the present economic situation.

An importer, Gboyega Adebari, who was shocked at the decision said stakeholders will be greatly affected by the decision.

According to him, “When we went to assess a job this morning, we were told that the exchange rate has been increased, though we have been expecting it, but we don’t expect that it would be so sudden. The implication of this on cargo clearance is that cost of clearance would increase by N24 difference.

“The cargoes that already enroute Nigeria would also be affected, the jobs that we want to clear this morning were affected.

“When you go back to the importer and request for money, they will tell you there is no notification of increase from customs, so the freight forwarders are the ones that would bear the additional cost.”

Naira plunged to N502 against the United States Dollar at the parallel market on Wednesday and traded at N715 to a British Pound and N605 against the European common currency, Euro.

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Naira

Naira Hits N502 Against U.S Dollar at the Black Market

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Naira - Investors King

Persistent dollar scarcity amid devaluation and economic uncertainties plunged the Nigerian Naira to N502 per U.S Dollar at the parallel market, popularly known as the black market.

The local currency traded at N715 to a British Pound and N605 to a Euro on Wednesday morning.

At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate Fixing Methodology (NAFEX), the Naira opened at N411.15 to a United States Dollar before dropping to as low as N421.96 and eventually closing at N411.5.

The Central Bank of Nigeria had adopted the NAFEX rate as the nation’s official rate when it became clear that the apex can no long sustain Naira’s fixed-rate amid dwindling foreign reserves and weak revenue generation.

The NAFEX rate, popularly known as the Investors and Exporters Forex Window, was quoted as N410.15 to a United States Dollar on Tuesday, June 8, 2021 on the central bank’s official website.

The apex bank decision to devalue the Naira despite the ongoing economic challenges in Africa’s largest economy was because of the pressure from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, demanding the federal government to allow forces of demand and supply to determine the naira exchange rate against pegged Naira-USD rate.

However, with the Federal Government looking for approval from the two multilateral institutions for fresh loans, it became necessary to enforce those demands before new loan applications could be approved.

The World Bank raised Nigeria’s growth rate from 1.1 percent to 1.8 percent in 2021, saying a series of structural reforms and market-determined exchange rates will help boost economic activities.

Also, oil prices were projected to remain high in the near term.

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South African Reserve Bank Imposes Administrative Sanctions on Authorised Dealer in Foreign Exchange with Limited Authority

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South African Rand - Investors King

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has imposed administrative sanctions on Master Currency (Pty) Limited, an Authorised Dealer in foreign exchange with limited authority (ADLA).

Authorised Dealers in foreign exchange (commercial banks) and ADLAs are persons authorised by the SARB to deal in foreign exchange transactions and are regulated accordingly. ADLAs include bureaux de change and are authorised to deal only in certain limited, designated foreign exchange transactions, including travel-related transactions.

The Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001 (FIC Act) mandates the SARB to ensure that ADLAs have adequate controls in place to combat acts of money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Flowing from these responsibilities, the SARB inspects ADLAs to assess whether they  have  appropriate measures in place,as required by the FIC Act.

The administrative sanctions were imposed after the SARB conducted inspections at Master Currency (Pty) Limited, in terms of the FIC Act. The inspections found weaknesses in the control measures the ADLA, Master Currency (Pty) Limited, had in place to control anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism.

It should be noted that the administrative sanctions were imposed because of certain weaknesses that were detected in the ADLA’s control measures which inhibited the ADLA from proactively detecting financial crime, and not because it was found to have facilitated transactions involving money laundering or the financing of terrorism.

The administrative sanctions imposed are as follows:

  • a financial penalty of R100 000 in terms of section 45C(3)(e) of the FIC Act, for failing to provide ongoing training to employees to comply with the provisions of such Act in terms of section 43 thereof; and
  •  a directive in terms of section 45C(3)(c) of the FIC Act, to provide the requisite refresher training at all branches, and to submit confirmation and evidence that such training has been conducted and will continue to be conducted on an annual basis.

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