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FG’s Non-oil Revenue Rises by 28.7% to N322.93bn

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Zambian economy
  • FG’s Non-oil Revenue Rises by 28.7% to N322.93bn

The federal government’s non-oil revenue increased by 28.7 per cent to N322.93 billion in April, higher than the N251.01 billion recorded the previous month.

But at N322.93 billion or 40.6 per cent of total revenue, the non-oil revenue was below the provisional monthly budget estimate of N466.91 billion by 30.8 per cent.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed this in its monthly economic report for April 2019, posted on its website.

But it explained that the lower collection relative to the provisional monthly budget estimate was due to the shortfalls in corporate tax, VAT, Federal Government of Nigeria Independent Revenue and Education Tax.

According to the report, at N795.31 billion, the estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in April 2019, fell below the provisional monthly budget estimate of N1.107 trillion by 28.2 per cent.

However, it exceeded the receipt of N767.90 billion in the preceding month by 3.6 per cent. The decrease, relative to the provisional monthly budget estimate, was attributed to a shortfall in both oil and non-oil revenue.

Also, oil receipts, at N472.38 billion or 59.4 per cent of total revenue, was below both the provisional monthly budget estimate and the preceding month’s receipt of N516.88 by 26.2 per cent and 8.6 per cent, respectively.

The fall in oil revenue relative to the provisional monthly budget estimate was attributed to the shut-ins and short-downs at some NNPC terminals due to technical issues, leakages and maintenance.
“Of the total N616.21 billion retained revenue in the Federation Account, the sums of N88.49 billion, N67.82 billion and N24.72 billion were transferred to the VAT Pool Account, the federal government independent revenue and ‘Others’ respectively, leaving a balance of N435.18 billion for distribution to the three tiers of government,” the report said.

Of this amount, the federal government received N208.39 billion, while the state and local governments got N105.70 billion and N81.49 billion, respectively.
The balance of N39.59 billion was shared among the oil producing states as 13 per cent Derivation Fund.

Similarly, from the N88.49 billion transferred to the VAT Pool Account, the federal government received N13.27 billion, while the state and local governments received N44.25 billion and N30.97 billion, respectively.

“The external sector performance remained stable in the review month. The average price of crude oil rose from $68.11 per barrel in March 2019 to US$73.08 per barrel in April 2019 due to OPEC-led supply cuts, geopolitical tensions in Libya and Venezuela, and the US sanctions on Iran.

“Notwithstanding, aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the CBN, at $5.25 billion, showed a decline of 32.4 per cent below the level in the preceding period of 2019, but contrasted with the growth of 23.8 per cent at the end of the corresponding period of 2018. The fall in aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the CBN, relative to the preceding month’s level, was attributed, largely, to the decrease in non- oil receipts.

“Aggregate outflow of foreign exchange from the Bank fell by 6.7 per cent below the level at the end of the preceding month to $4.90 billion in April 2019. It, however, indicated 42.5 per cent increase over the level at the end of the corresponding period of 2018. The development, relative to end-April 2019, reflected, mainly, the 13.2 per cent decline in ‘Interbank Utilisation,” the report stated.

Furthermore, the overall, foreign exchange flows through the Bank in the month of April 2019, resulted in a net inflow of $0.35 billion, compared with $2.51 billion and $0.80 billion in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.

According to the report, at N31.696 trillion, aggregate credit to the domestic economy, on month-on-month basis, grew by 3.9 per cent at the end of the review month, compared with the increase of 6.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.

The development reflected, mainly, the 11.4 per cent rise in net claims on the federal government. Over the level at end- December 2018, net domestic credit grew by 15 per cent at the end of the review period, compared with the growth of 10.7 per cent and 5.3 per cent at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development was due to the increase of 59.1 per cent and 5.5 per cent in net claims on the federal government and claims on the private sector, respectively.

“Net claims on the federal government, on month-on-month basis, rose by 21.8 per cent to N7,741.3 billion at end-March 2019, compared with the increase of 11.4 per cent and 7.3 per cent at the end of February 2019 and March 2018, respectively.

“The development was due to the increase of 74.0 per cent in the banking systems holding of government securities in the review month. Relative to the level at end- December 2018, net claims on the federal government grew by 59.1 per cent at the end of the review period, compared with the increase of 30.6 per cent and 35.5 per cent at end of February 2019 and March 2018, respectively,” it added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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