Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook July 18 – 22

Published

8 years ago

July 17, 2016

The US economy substantiated June’s 287,000 payrolls with a solid consumer spending last week, although inflation remains unchanged at 0.2 percent. There were evidences that an increase in the cost of living cause by surging energy prices will pressure costs in the second half of the year. But with unemployment claims at 254,000 and industrial production rising from -0.3 percent to 0.6 percent, it is right to say the US economy is reasonably improving.

While it is wrong to downplay global risk, it is also nimble to note that Brexit effect in itself is yet to materialize, but that the financial markets are being driven by speculators, this is one of the reasons why the U.K. monetary policy committee held rates at 0.5 percent to assess the situation up until they believed Brexit would have crystallized.

Last week, the world‘s third largest economy, Japan also hinted at stimulus expansion and it’s plans to aid domestic consumption by weakening the yen to boost exports. The market is currently pricing in that possibility as it can be seen in yen pairs. This week, EURUSD, AUD, and USDCAD top the list for me.

EURUSD

This particular pair has remained relatively stagnant after three attempts to break 1.1185 resistance level and sustain the upward trend started in October 2015. But with the US labor market rebounded — couple with solid consumer spending that erased all Euro-single currency gains against the US dollar last week. The US dollar may finally be heading to 1.0714 support level underscored three weeks ago.

Click to enlarge

This week I remain bearish on EURUSD as long as 1.1090 resistance level holds.

AUDUSD

In June, Australia added 7,900 jobs down from 19,200 recorded in the previous month. While this is not entirely bad, the continuous gain of Aussie dollar is, especially after Glenn Steven’s comment on the danger of a strong Aussie dollar on the economy. Nevertheless, China’s lackluster economic data further compounded the prospect of the currency after yearly inflation drop to 1.9 percent and trade surplus plunged from 325bn to 311bn. It is only a matter of time before the Aussie economy reflects drop in China’s imports. This I believe will prompt the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points, if not for anything but to halt surging currency and enhance its exports.

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The US dollar on the other hand has rebounded tremendously, following weak 38,000 jobs reported in May and has since boosted consumer spending with little to zero Brexit effect. This week I am bearish on Aussie dollar, because one, the upward trend started in May has been contained below 0.7700 price level and currently I don’t think the Aussie dollar is attractive enough to break 0.76690 resistance level. If the 0.7484 support level (below 20-day moving average) is breached, it should pave way for 0.7379 and sustained break should open up 0.7143.

USDCAD

The Canadian economy is weighed on by weak manufacturing sector, but the Bank of Canada left interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent on Wednesday, downplaying the effect of Brexit on the economy even though manufacturing sector is yet to pick up.

Click to enlarge

From the Chart, this pair has failed to break 1.3142 resistance level after four attempts, but established a sort of range between 1.2849 support level and 1.3142. This week, I am bullish on USDCAD with 1.3142 as the target, a sustainable break should open up 1.3387.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,380 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

Published

12 hours ago

May 3, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,380
Selling Rate: ₦1,370

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

22 hours ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,350
Selling Rate: N1,340

Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.