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Monetary Policy’ll Keep Economic Variables Neutral in 2019 – Sigma

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Interbank rate
  • Monetary Policy’ll Keep Economic Variables Neutral in 2019 – Sigma

To keep economic variables in a neutral state, monetary policy will be needed to deliver an economic policy that will respond to the developing external environment in 2019, according a report by Sigma Pensions.

The Chief Investment Officer, Sigma Pension, Mr Pabina Yinkere, stated this in a report on ‘Nigeria 2019 Outlook: Election downtime, tight monetary policy, drive subdued growth outlook’.

He stated, “The Nigerian economy faces another round of oil-induced pressure over 2019. However, focus is likely to be on the elections and less on economics. In a bid to keep economic variables in a neutral state, monetary policy will shoulder the burden of delivering an economic policy response to the developing external environment and will tilt towards a contractionary stance.

“We think fiscal policy response will likely be delayed until much later in the year, whichever way the elections go. Given likely foreign reservation towards naira assets in general, our investment strategy prioritises a focus on assets with high correlation to interest rates over most of 2019.”

After a period of strength, it stated that the rapid sell-off in crude oil in November and December 2018 amid a testy political climate was driving a cautious outlook regarding Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment in 2019.

“In our view, the investment landscape for the year will be shaped by relatively lower oil prices, the pace of monetary policy normalisation in developed markets; and the 2019 general elections in February.

For much of 2018, it added, Nigeria’s financial markets struggled under the weight of heightened political risk ahead of the 2019 polls.

Also, it added, a fresh concern over crude oil prices in a less accommodative global financial environment presented headwinds to the domestic investment landscape.

“In 2019, we note that Nigeria’s large dependence on crude oil for foreign exchange reserves and fiscal revenues, positions it poorly in a soft crude oil price environment, which we envisage over the year.

“The implications of a less supportive current account balance for key economic variables are central in our thoughts around the macroeconomy, policy responses and asset price movements.”

According to the report, there will be a less supportive oil price and external environment over 2019.

He stated, “The central point from our review of the global macroeconomic environment is that in contrast to 2018 when stronger oil prices underpinned a favourable external balance for Nigeria, the reverse is likely to be the case in 2019.

“We adopt a pessimistic view on oil amid a growing supply-demand imbalance reflecting a mix of rising US Shale oil production and subdued global economic growth and its implications for oil consumption.

“Accordingly, we think any OPEC rebalancing will struggle to clear a building over-supply picture and expect the benchmark Brent crude oil prices to average between $55-60/bbl (2018 average: $71.7/bbl). Given the large role of oil in Nigeria’s exports, our cynicism about oil prices feed through to a weaker view on the current account balance in 2019.

On the global front, he said, “We think US monetary policy will continue on the path of normalisation and envisage further rise in US bond yields curbing the quantum of foreign portfolio inflows to emerging/frontier markets.

“Overall, the balance of payments is likely to present headwinds to Nigeria’s economic performance in 2019 and in particular the exchange rate.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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