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Fixing Nigeria’s Dilapidated Oil Pipelines

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  • Fixing Nigeria’s Dilapidated Oil Pipelines

The outcome of a study commissioned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to determine the operational status of the country’s network of petroleum products pipeline it manages and how it can become commercially viable to the country was recently obtained by Investors King.

The report indicated that the lines are mostly broken-down and would need to be replaced or fixed with $12 billion and $1.1 billion respectively.

Initiated to amongst other objectives, come up with an intervention plan to transform government-owned downstream oil pipelines into a proper business with incentives to attract private sector participation, the study showed there was an urgent need to refurbish and get Nigeria’s oil pipelines to work economically and optimally.

Current Condition of NNPC’s Pipelines

The outcome of the study stated that product losses from vandalism on pipelines owned by the NNPC, as well as costs incurred by the corporation to repair them when broken have been enormous, and suggested they be segmented for either privatisation or commercialisation.

To buttress its findings, a September 2018 edition of the monthly operations and financial report of the NNPC, had explained that products theft and vandalism have continued to destroy value and put NNPC at disadvantaged competitive position.

The NNPC operations report had stated that between September 2017 and September 2018, a total of 1,883 vandalised points were recorded on the pipelines of the corporation.

Similarly, the corporation stated in another of its monthly reports that between January and December 2017, a total of 1120 vandalised points were recorded on its pipeline, thus indicating that theft of products and vandalism of its downstream assets have continued to affect negatively its value addition to the country’s oil and gas industry.

Findings of the Study

Though the extensive upstream crude oil pipelines owned by oil producing companies and downstream gas pipelines were excluded in its study, it however captured all of the existing products lines of the NNPC, but could not exactly state how well they are positioned to operate.

For instance, it stated that: “The exact mechanical condition of the network is unknown, and it would cost more than $12 billion to replace the entire network today, and more than $1.1 billion to repair and inspect it comprehensively.”

Furthermore, the study highlighted that that: “The pipeline network is a worthy investment that is currently vastly underutilised due to a myriad of problems.”

According to it, the Pipelines and Products Marketing Company (PPMC), a subsidiary of the NNPC, which manages the lines have been unable to make the most of the pipeline network, which traverses the country, and consists of 4,315 kilometres of multi-product pipelines and 701 kilometres of crude oil pipelines.

“The pipelines are operated by Products and Pipelines Marketing Company (PPMC), and are utilised to transport crude oil from Warri to the Kaduna refinery, and to transport refined products (i.e. premium motor spirit (PMS), automotive gas oil (AGO), dual purpose kerosene (DPK), and aviation turbine kerosene (ATK)) nationwide.

“The key challenges identified with PPMC operations of the pipelines under exclusive government ownership comprise, refinery operations: low availability of the refineries results in sub-optimal utilisation of the pipelines; security, pipelines vandalism, and theft of products: this is well entrenched in Nigeria; product pricing and downstream market regulations: these stifle private sector participation in the value chain, and related losses have been estimated at up to $15 billion per annum; poverty and chronic underdevelopment: this is partly responsible for the chronic incidences of vandalism and theft of products,” the outcome of the study explained.

It stated that while Nigeria faces challenges in its pipelines, pipeline transportation business has however been thriving in many countries, particularly the United States, thus indicating the country has remained largely behind in the modern approach to petroleum products distribution.

Nigeria, it noted still relies on expensive road tankers to take products across her length and breadth.

Way Forward

In its recommendation, the study stated that deregulating the downstream sector, and privatising or commercialising all its value chain such as the refineries; pipelines network; pumping stations; and product storage depots, would ensure that the sector operates in a sustainable manner, such that market realities will keep its long-term viability.

It equally did a comparative study of pipeline commercialisation models for possible adoption, along with policy recommendations developed for commercialisation with guidelines for implementation of the recommendations.

According to it: “For efficient management and to encourage competition, the products pipelines can be divided into three sections: The Western, Eastern, and Northern sub-networks. Additionally, the upstream segment for supply of crude oil to the Kaduna refinery can be managed as a dedicated crude oil sub-network.”

It however warned that before the commercialisation proposal is accepted for implementation, the country must endeavour to fix first its refineries and ensure they work well.

“Subsequent to their privatisation/commercialisation, fix/repair the four inland refineries and ensure they operate at optimum availabilities. If this is not achieved, it is unlikely that private investors will show a keen interest in acquiring/managing the pipeline network,” it explained.

Continuing on the actions to be taken, it said splitting the lines into segments could then be the next action to be implemented. It warned the government to avoid repeating the mistakes it reportedly made in the 2013 power sector privatisation exercise which perhaps included not getting the market governance processes right before launching out the market.

“Split the pipelines network into the indicated four segment sub-networks, i.e. Western, Eastern, Northern and Crude Oil, and privatise/commercialise each as distinct companies.

“Avoid the pitfalls associated with the privatisation of PHCN (Power Holding Company of Nigeria) assets in the electricity supply sector. Generate employment for the general public and the host communities via the pipelines privatisation/commercialisation process,” it stated.

Turning to pipeline vandalism, the study stated that its severity was higher in the south than in the north, and that there is a ‘market’ for both crude and refinery products tapped from the pipelines.

It equally questioned the capacity of the PPMC to secure the lines, saying: “Responsibility for pipelines rests with PPMC. However, it appears that PPMC do not have a unit capable of managing the entire spectrum of pipeline operations, particularly those related to technical maintenance.

“Even basic security surveillance of the pipeline RoW is severely compromised. The opportunities that these technical and security-related operations offer to engage the communities on the pipeline RoW – and thereby improve government presence therein – are not maximised. Instead, only a token effort is made.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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