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Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook June 27 – July 1

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Euro currency

Global financial markets were thrown into turmoil after the U.K. exit the world’s biggest market, the European Union. Pushing the pound to over 30-year low against the US dollar as investors scramble for haven assets.

The risk was further compounded by the decision of Prime Minister David Cameron and the British representative to the European Union Jonathan Hill to resign following Brexit. It is yet unknown when the UK will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and get on with the exit process, which could take between 2 to 5 years, but the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney in his post-Brexit statement said the apex bank has prepared for this day and as such has made provision for about 600 billion pounds to support the UK financial system and strengthens businesses to create jobs and enhance growth going forward.

On the other hand, the American labor market rebounded last week after May’s weaker than expected non-farm payroll, the unemployment claims improved by 18,000 to 259,000, which suggest moderate growth in the second quarter of the year. Although there were weakness in the housing and manufacturing sectors, but was overshadowed by the increase in demand for the US dollars due to Brexit.

On BOJ, the continuous rush for haven assets has compounded Japan’s situation, while Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso has repeatedly said the yen move is one sided,  I don’t think G7 and G20 will give BOJ go ahead to intervene in the yen’s gains, considering global Risks.

This week, US first quarter final GDP, US consumer confidence index, US crude oil inventories, UK current account, Canada monthly GDP, US unemployment claims and purchasing Manager indexes (China, US, UK) are key economic factors to look out for. Here are my forex weekly pick EURUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY.

EURUSD

EURUSDWeekly

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For the past two weeks I have been bearish on EURUSD but the global uncertainties weigh upon it, hence, the pullback before last week bearish confirmation. As long as price remains below 1.1338, I am bearish on EURUSD but with entry around 1.1090, that double as our target two weeks ago and also a price continuation below the channel. Target for the week will be 1.0714, while keeping an eye on global growth as things unfold in coming days.

AUDJPY

AUDJPYWeekly

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The same two weeks ago I made mention of AUDJPY pair, although our target was hit at 75.83. The pair still holds considerable sell potential of around 272 pips. I remain bearish on AUDJPY as long as 78.15 resistance level holds, with 73.54 as the target.

NZDJPY

NZDJPYDaily

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After failing to sustain a break of the downward trendline started since last year. The pair has finally given in to Brexit pressure reach over 4-year low on Friday. This week, as long as 73.90 resistance level first established in 2008 hold. I am bearish on this pair with 69.94 as the target.

This should be traded with great caution as high volatility is expected across the board this week as investors try to decipher both ECB and BOE direction going forward. All take profit targets were hit last week.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,350 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

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New Naira notes

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,380
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,370

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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on

New Naira Notes

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,350
  • Selling Rate: N1,340

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Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

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yen

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.

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