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2018 Budget: FG Records N1.1tn Deficit in Eight Months

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  • 2018 Budget: FG Records N1.1tn Deficit in Eight Months

Between January and August, the Federal Government recorded a fiscal deficit of N1.14tn in its operations, figures obtained from the Budget Office of the Federation have revealed.

The 2018 budget which was signed by President Muhammadu Buhari had a total spending of N9.1tn made up of N2.87tn for capital expenditure, N3.51tn for recurrent (non-debt) expenditure while N2.01tn was projected to be spent on debt servicing.

The N9.1tn budget was expected to be financed from N2.99tn to be generated from oil revenue, N31.25bn from Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas dividend while N1.17bn is expected to be realised through revenue from minerals and mining.

To fund the budget, the Federal Government had planned to generate N658.55bn from Companies Income Tax; N207.51bn from Value Added Tax; N324.86bn from Customs while N57.87bn was expected to come from federation account levies.

The government was expected to raise N847.95bn through independent revenue from its agencies, while tax amnesty income, signature bonus and unspent balance from previous years were to provide N87.84bn, N114.3bn and N250bn respectively

Details of the performance of the 2018 budget which was captured in the 2019 Budget Call Circular showed that as of the end of August, the Federal Government’s actual revenue was N2.48tn.

The budget circular, which was signed by the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, noted that the N2.48tn actual revenue represented about 52 per cent of the N4.78tn pro-rata budget.

It attributed the shortfall of 48 per to the underperformance of both oil and non-oil revenue sources.

The circular said, “The shortfall in Companies Income Tax collections may be partly due to seasonal factors as most companies remit their income taxes during the second half of the year.

“The slow recovery in economic activities that drive consumption and the lingering security issues contributed to the underperformance of other non-oil revenue sources like Value Added Tax.

“The delay in the implementation of other revenue initiatives like the restructuring of

JV (Joint Venture) oil assets and tighter performance management of Government Owned Enterprises further explain the weak non-oil revenue performance.”

In terms of expenditure, it said out of the total appropriation of N9.12trn, the sum of N3.64tn had been spent between January and August.

This, according to the document, represents a shortfall of about N2.44tn over the prorated expenditure sum of N6.08tn for January to August.

A breakdown of the N3.64tn showed that a total amount of N1.83tn had been released for non-debt recurrent expenditure for the payment of salaries, pensions, and overheads among others.

It said, “Releases for capital expenditure only commenced after the 2018 budget was signed into law on June 20, 2018.

“Revenue shortfalls and the need to meet non-discretionary recurrent spending such as payment of salaries and debt service further affected the level of capital expenditure in the period.

“A total of N486.29bn was released by October 17, 2018 for capital projects.

“In effect, a deficit of N1.14tn was incurred as at end of August 2018, which is about 58 per cent of the budgeted deficit for the full year.”

Similarly, the document stated that the sum of N1.54tn had been released to cover debt service obligations during the eight months period.

It said the N3.64tn released during the eight months period excluded the N486.29bn which was released to agencies of government on October 17for the execution of capital projects.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

CBN Worries as Nigeria’s Economic Activities Decline

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has expressed deep worries over the ongoing decline in economic activities within the nation.

The disclosure came from the CBN’s Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Bala Moh’d Bello, who highlighted the grim economic landscape in his personal statement following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

According to Bello, the country’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted sharply to 39.2 index points in February 2024 from 48.5 index points recorded in the previous month. This substantial drop underscores the challenging economic environment Nigeria currently faces.

The persistent contraction in economic activity, which has endured for eight consecutive months, has been primarily attributed to various factors including exchange rate pressures, soaring inflation, security challenges, and other significant headwinds.

Bello emphasized the urgent need for well-calibrated policy decisions aimed at ensuring price stability to prevent further stifling of economic activities and avoid derailing output performance. Despite sustained increases in the monetary policy rate, inflationary pressures continue to mount, posing a significant challenge.

Inflation rates surged to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in the previous month, with both food and core inflation witnessing a notable uptick.

Bello attributed this alarming rise in inflation to elevated production costs, lingering security challenges, and ongoing exchange rate pressures.

The situation further escalated in March, with inflation soaring to an alarming 33.22 per cent, prompting urgent calls for coordinated efforts to address the burgeoning crisis.

The adverse effects of high inflation on citizens’ purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall output performance cannot be overstated.

While acknowledging the commendable efforts of the Federal Government in tackling food insecurity through initiatives such as releasing grains from strategic reserves, distributing seeds and fertilizers, and supporting dry season farming, Bello stressed the need for decisive action to curb the soaring inflation rate.

It’s worth noting that the MPC had recently raised the country’s interest rate to 24.75 per cent in March, reflecting the urgency and seriousness with which the CBN is approaching the economic challenges facing Nigeria.

As the nation grapples with a multitude of economic woes, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and security concerns, the CBN’s vigilance and proactive measures become increasingly crucial in navigating these turbulent times and steering the economy towards stability and growth.

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Economy

Sub-Saharan Africa to Double Nickel, Triple Cobalt, and Tenfold Lithium by 2050, says IMF

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In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global market for critical minerals.

The IMF forecasts a significant uptick in the production of essential minerals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium in the region by the year 2050.

According to the report titled ‘Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth,’ Sub-Saharan Africa stands to double its nickel production, triple its cobalt output, and witness a tenfold increase in lithium extraction over the next three decades.

This surge is attributed to the global transition towards clean energy, which is driving the demand for these minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies.

The IMF projects that the revenues generated from the extraction of key minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, could exceed $16 trillion over the next 25 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to capture over 10 percent of these revenues, potentially leading to a GDP increase of 12 percent or more by 2050.

The report underscores the transformative potential of this mineral wealth, emphasizing that if managed effectively, it could catalyze economic growth and development across the region.

With Sub-Saharan Africa holding about 30 percent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, the IMF highlights the opportunity for the region to become a major player in the global supply chain for these essential resources.

Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are already significant contributors to global mineral production. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half of the world’s proven reserves.

Other countries like South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Mali also possess significant reserves of critical minerals.

However, the report also raises concerns about the need for local processing of these minerals to capture more value and create higher-skilled jobs within the region.

While raw mineral exports contribute to revenue, processing these minerals locally could significantly increase their value and contribute to sustainable development.

The IMF calls for policymakers to focus on developing local processing industries to maximize the economic benefits of the region’s mineral wealth.

By diversifying economies and moving up the value chain, countries can reduce their vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and enhance their resilience to external shocks.

The report concludes by advocating for regional collaboration and integration to create a more attractive market for investment in mineral processing industries.

By working together across borders, Sub-Saharan African countries can unlock the full potential of their critical mineral wealth and pave the way for sustainable economic growth and development.

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Economy

Lagos, Abuja to Host Public Engagements on Proposed Tax Policy Changes

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The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has announced a series of public engagements to discuss proposed tax policy changes.

Scheduled to kick off in Lagos on Thursday followed by Abuja on May 6, these sessions will help shape Nigeria’s tax structure.

Led by Chairman Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to gather insights and perspectives from stakeholders across sectors.

The focal point of these engagements is to solicit feedback on revisions to the National Tax Policy and potential amendments to tax laws and administration practices.

The significance of these public dialogues cannot be overstated. As Nigeria endeavors to fortify its economy and enhance revenue collection mechanisms, citizen input is paramount.

The engagement process underscores a commitment to democratic governance and collaborative policymaking, recognizing that tax reforms affect every facet of society.

The proposed changes are rooted in a strategic vision to stimulate economic growth while ensuring fairness and efficiency in tax administration. By harnessing diverse viewpoints, the committee seeks to craft policies that are not only robust but also reflective of the needs and aspirations of Nigerians.

Addressing the press, Chairman Taiwo Oyedele highlighted the importance of these consultations in refining the nation’s tax architecture.

He said the committee’s mandate is informed by insights gleaned from previous engagements and consultations.

The evolving nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape necessitates agility and responsiveness in policymaking, traits that these engagements seek to cultivate.

The public engagements will provide a platform for stakeholders to articulate their perspectives, concerns, and recommendations regarding tax reforms.

Participants from various sectors, including business, academia, civil society, and government agencies, are expected to contribute to robust discussions aimed at charting a path forward for Nigeria’s fiscal policy.

As the first leg of the engagements unfolds in Lagos, followed by Abuja, anticipation is high for constructive dialogue and meaningful outcomes.

The success of these engagements hinges on active participation and genuine collaboration among stakeholders, underscoring the collective responsibility to shape Nigeria’s fiscal future.

In an era marked by economic challenges and global uncertainty, proactive and inclusive policymaking is paramount.

The forthcoming public engagements represent a tangible step towards fostering transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement in Nigeria’s tax reform process.

By harnessing the collective wisdom of its citizens, Nigeria can forge a tax regime that propels sustainable economic development and fosters shared prosperity for all.

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