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Despite Huge Gas Reserves, Power Plants Suffer Shortages

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  • Despite Huge Gas Reserves, Power Plants Suffer Shortages

Over the years, many of the nation’s gas-fired power plants which are responsible for over 70 per cent of the energy being generated continue to suffer gas shortages.

Nigeria has around 181 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves plus much more in undiscovered gas resources. But despite having the largest gas reserves in Africa, only about 25 per cent of those reserves are being produced or are under development.

The country currently has around 7,000 megawatts of installed electricity generation capacity but less than 5,000MW is often in operation. Total electricity generation stood at 3,659.60MW as of 6am on September 25, the latest data from the Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing showed.

The nation has three hydropower plants and 24 gas-fired plants.

National gas production stood at 241.63 billion cubic feet in April, translating to an average daily production of 8.054 billion standard cubic feet per day, representing 1.34 per cent decrease compared to March statistics, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s latest monthly report.

The corporation said the daily average natural gas supply to gas power plants was at 835.27mmscfd, equivalent to power generation of 3,283MW.

It said, “Out of the 242.16Bcf of gas supplied in April, a total of 144.16Bcf of gas was commercialised comprising of 39.71Bcf and 104.45Bcf for the domestic and export market respectively.

“This implies that 59.53 per cent of the average daily gas produced was commercialised while the balance of 40.47 per cent was re-injected, used as upstream fuel gas or flared. Gas flare rate was 9.52 per cent for the month under review i.e. 769mmscfd compared with average gas flare rate of 10.24 per cent i.e. 810.03mmscfd for the period March 2017 to March 2018.”

The President, Nigerian Gas Association, Mr Dada Thomas, said last week that turning natural gas into a profit-making venture required huge investments in infrastructure that would address the five component areas of gas availability, gas affordability, deliverability, funding and the legal and regulatory framework.

He said, “Even with obvious challenges, companies are making significant strategic investments in gas pipelines and production to power Independent Power Plants and industrial customers and it is estimated that about 1,000 megawatts of the IPP capacity is presently idle due to a lack of gas delivery.

“As the market moves towards the concept of ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ and the government continues to make the investment environment more attractive, the country has massive prospects.”

The Group Chief Executive Officer, Oando Plc, Mr Wale Tinubu, said gas development in Nigeria had been stunted by the slow development of the market and the difficulty in accessing long-term, low-interest capital needed to undertake the massive projects that can ensure delivery of gas to all parts of the country.

“Gas development is closely tied to infrastructure development – or the lack of it. Gas infrastructure is a high-cost, low-margin business. It has a high barrier of entry and requires deep technical and terrain knowledge and experience to succeed,” he said in an interview with The Oil & Gas Year.

Tinubu said, “We believe the private sector is best positioned to fill the huge gap that remains in gas infrastructure investments, and Axxela remains at the forefront of championing progress in the expansion of natural gas supply to the nation.”

The Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, Nestoil Limited, Dr Ernest Azudialu-Obiejesi, at an industry event earlier in September, called on the Federal Government to increase the construction of gas pipeline in order to enhance access to natural gas supply by power-generating stations and other areas where gas is needed.

Azudialu-Obiejesi, who spoke at the second edition of the Nigerian International Pipeline Technology and Security Conference in Abuja, said, “Nigeria, with its abundant reserves of petroleum and gas, stands on the threshold of its own industrial revolution. To kick-start this industrialisation, we must not only extract these resources in the most efficient manner, but also refine and deliver them efficiently, and in a secure and cost-effective manner.”

In May, the Group Managing Director, NNPC, Dr Maikanti Baru, said the country was expecting over $25bn worth of investments in the gas sector.

He also stated that policies that would put an end to the flaring of gas had been developed by the corporation, adding that gas flaring in Nigeria had reduced significantly from 25 per cent to 10 per cent in the last decade.

Concerned about the volume of gas being flared in the country, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, said last week that any oil firm that could not end gas flaring ought not to be producing.

Kachikwu stated, “Government wants to end flare; oil companies still give lots of reasons why flare cannot be ended. Bottom line is cash call and money. But the reality is that whether or not we deal with cash call issues, it is not an optional agenda. It is a compulsive immediate agenda. It is destructive to the populace; it is intolerable in developed countries and it should not be tolerable here either.

“Any oil company that cannot find a way to end its flare ought not to be producing. And I have said to the DPR that beginning from next year, we are going to get quite frantic about this. For companies that cannot meet with extended periods, the issue is not how much you pay in terms of fines for flaring; the issue is that you will not produce. We need to begin to look at foreclosing of licences. It is that urgent.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Marking Steepest Weekly Decline in Three Months

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Amidst concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the potential timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, oil prices record its sharpest weekly decline in three months.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, settled 71 cents lower to close at $82.96 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 84 cents, or 1.06% to end the week at $78.11 a barrel.

The primary driver behind this decline was investor apprehension regarding the impact of sustained borrowing costs on the U.S. economy, the world’s foremost oil consumer. These concerns were amplified after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels this week.

Throughout the week, Brent experienced a decline of over 7%, while WTI dropped by 6.8%.

The slowdown in U.S. job growth, revealed in April’s data, coupled with a cooling annual wage gain, intensified expectations among traders for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank.

Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics, noted that while the economy is experiencing a slight deceleration, the data presents a pathway for the Fed to enact at least one rate cut this year.

The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged this week, despite acknowledging elevated inflation levels, has prompted a reassessment of the anticipated timing for potential rate cuts, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Higher interest rates typically exert downward pressure on economic activity and can dampen oil demand.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second consecutive week, reaching the lowest count since January 2022, as reported by Baker Hughes.

The oil and gas rig count fell by eight to 605, with the number of oil rigs dropping by seven to 499, the most significant weekly decline since November 2023.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat eased as discussions for a temporary ceasefire progress with international mediators.

Looking ahead, the next meeting of OPEC+ oil producers is scheduled for June 1, where the group may consider extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June if global oil demand fails to pick up.

In light of these developments, money managers reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week leading up to April 30, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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Gold

Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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