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Exchange Rate Unification not Happening Soon, Say Analysts

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  • Exchange Rate Unification not Happening Soon, Say Analysts

The possibility of having a single exchange rate for the naira is not likely to be achieved any time soon, analysts at FBN Quest, the research arm of FBN Holdings have said.

Nigeria has at least, four exchange rates, which include one for Muslim pilgrims going to Saudi Arabia, another for oil marketers, rate for foreign travel and school fees, in addition to the official market rate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has continually insisted that to ensure further stability in the foreign exchange market, Nigeria needed to unify her exchange rates. Nigeria had battled a currency crisis brought about by low oil prices, which tipped her economy into recession and created chronic dollar shortages.

According to a report released ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) July meeting slated for next week, FBN Quest analysts said although one member of the committee called for the apex bank to pursue exchange rate convergence at different market segments, the possibility of realising the goal is slim.

“On the naira exchange rate, one member called for the CBN to pursue the convergence of the different segments of the market. Such a trend is not evident on NAFEX or from the CBN’s rate for preferential transactions (N305) although it could be discerned from the rates at the CBN’s wholesale auctions. We still do not see the unification of rates anytime soon,” they said.

The report titled: ‘A restatement of Caution’, analysed the personal statements of MPC members released last week by the apex bank and gave their verdict.

“The CBN last week released the personal statements arising from the last meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in late May. Eight members of the committee voted for no change, and one for a hike in the policy rate of 50 basis points. We would have welcomed the start of easing but accept that the latest statements suggest otherwise. Their main concerns are that the macro-economy will be distorted by fiscal challenges and that the offshore portfolio community will rush for the door marked exit en masse,” the report stated.

On inflation, one member acknowledged that the policy rate was finally positive in real terms. Another noted that staff forecasts pointed to single-digit core inflation year-on-year in June.

“Those same forecasts see upward trending pressures in second half of 2018, which the committee explains in the context of fiscal developments: the late passage of the 2018 budget (signed off since the committee met), the expansionary nature of the N9.12 trillion budget, and the determination of the Federal Government of Nigeria to disburse undrawn capital releases from the 2017 budget before moving onto those projected for 2018. This is the single largest risk identified in the statements. Additionally, several members made the point that politicians generally inject cash into the economy ahead of Nigerian elections.

“In our view the MPC’s fears are overstated because projected FGN spending in 2018 is no more than eight per cent of forecast Gross Domestic Product, and, based on precedent and the late passage of the budget, is most unlikely to be released in full.As a broader point, we have examined the data for the run-up to the 2011 and 2015 elections, and have not found macro turmoil in the series for money supply, inflation and the public finances.”

One member was of the view that contractors should see the settlement of 40 per cent to 70 per cent of their arrears within the 2018 budget.

“Our expectation is that because of its stated concerns, the MPC will again make no change when it meets next week. Almost out of hope, however, we still see a rate cut by end-2018 and point to the statement in the communique that it would be prudent to analyse the national accounts for second in detail and assess the Federal Government of Nigeria’s fiscal stance once the 2018 budget had been approved before revising its own stance,”the report added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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APM Terminals in Talks with Government for Terminal Upgrade in Apapa

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APM Terminals is engaging in discussions with the government for a significant upgrade at its Apapa terminal.

Keith Svendsen, the Chief Executive Officer of APM Terminals, disclosed the company’s ambitious plans aimed at accommodating vessels with deep drafts and large ship-to-shore cranes.

The upgrade is part of APM Terminals’ long-term vision to bolster import and export opportunities in the country, create employment, and diversify local opportunities.

Svendsen emphasized the importance of fortifying existing port infrastructure, especially in Lagos, to manage increasing trade volumes effectively.

“While greenfield terminals like Lekki and later on Badagry would support economic growth in the long run, the more urgent requirement is in our view to upgrade the existing port infrastructure,” Svendsen commented.

The proposed upgrades seek to facilitate smoother operations, providing seamless connectivity through road, rail, and barge networks to mainline shipping.

Svendsen highlighted the unique position of the Apapa port in offering access to international markets for Nigerian importers and exporters, leveraging not only road but also rail and waterways, utilizing barges.

APM Terminals has been a pivotal player in Nigeria’s maritime sector for close to two decades. The company’s commitment to the nation’s economic growth is underscored by its proposed investment of over $500 million, subject to a long-term partnership with the government.

The Apapa terminal is a vital gateway for trade, handling a significant portion of Nigeria’s container traffic.

Furthermore, APM Terminals’ operations in Lagos and Onne collectively manage about half of the containers in Nigeria, demonstrating their pivotal role in the country’s logistics landscape.

The proposed upgrades signify APM Terminals’ dedication to supporting Nigeria’s economic reforms and attracting international investments.

The company has already invested over $600 million since its inception in Nigeria in 2006, directly employing approximately 2,500 Nigerians and indirectly contributing to employment for about 65,000 individuals.

“At APM Terminals, we believe strongly in the prospects for the Nigerian economy and the long-term opportunities that the current economic reforms and invitation for international investments will generate,” Svendsen affirmed.

As talks between APM Terminals and the government progress, stakeholders are optimistic about the positive impact of the proposed terminal upgrades on Nigeria’s maritime sector and overall economic development.

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Uber Rolls Out Flex Pay Feature: Daily Earnings for Nigerian Drivers

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Uber has rolled out a feature in Nigeria that promises to revolutionize the way drivers receive their earnings.

Dubbed “Flex Pay,” this innovative initiative allows Uber drivers across the country to access their earnings daily, a significant departure from the previous weekly payment system.

The announcement came during a recent media briefing led by Tope Akinwumi, Uber Nigeria’s country manager.

Akinwumi expressed the company’s commitment to supporting its drivers by introducing Flex Pay, which aims to help drivers meet their financial obligations more promptly and efficiently.

With Flex Pay, drivers now have the flexibility to access their earnings directly through their mobile wallets on a daily basis.

This move is poised to bring about a host of benefits for drivers, offering them greater financial stability and control over their finances.

In addition to the introduction of Flex Pay, Uber also unveiled a set of new features designed to enhance the driver experience on the platform.

One such feature is the ability for drivers to see upfront details about a trip request, including the destination and expected fare.

This added transparency empowers drivers to make more informed decisions about which trips to accept, ultimately improving their overall experience on the platform.

Speaking about the new features, Akinwumi emphasized Uber’s commitment to prioritizing the needs and feedback of its driver-partners.

He highlighted the company’s ongoing efforts to innovate and develop solutions that enhance the driver experience and ensure their satisfaction with the platform.

“We are constantly listening to feedback from our driver-partners and striving to provide them with the tools and support they need to succeed,” said Akinwumi.

“The introduction of Flex Pay and other new features is a testament to our commitment to empowering our driver-partners and enhancing their experience on the Uber platform.”

The implementation of Flex Pay marks a significant milestone for Uber in Nigeria, demonstrating the company’s dedication to driving positive change and innovation in the ride-hailing industry.

As drivers begin to benefit from daily earnings and increased transparency, Uber is poised to strengthen its position as a leading provider of flexible earning opportunities in the country.

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Exxon Mobil’s $1.28 Billion Asset Sale to Seplat Energy Set for Approval, Ending Two-Year Wait

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After a prolonged two-year wait, Exxon Mobil’s anticipated $1.28 billion asset sale to Seplat Energy is poised for approval by Nigeria’s oil regulator.

The deal, which has been in limbo since 2022, could finally see the light of day following recent communication from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Gbenga Komolafe, the chief of NUPRC, revealed to Reuters on Thursday that the regulatory body is on the verge of giving its consent to the transaction.

Komolafe disclosed that Exxon Mobil and Seplat Energy are scheduled to attend a pivotal meeting on Friday, during which they will discuss the final steps towards approval.

He expressed optimism, stating, “Subject to the outcome of the meeting, consent… could be given in less than two weeks from the date of the meeting.”

According to Komolafe, NUPRC will present the companies with two mutually exclusive options, the acceptance of which would pave the way for the deal’s approval.

While he didn’t delve into specifics, he emphasized that Nigerian law mandates provisions for decommissioning, host community development, and environmental remediation.

“We don’t want our nation to carry unwarranted financial burdens arising from the operations of the assets over time by the divesting entities,” Komolafe asserted, underscoring the importance of responsible asset management.

The $1.28 billion sale holds immense significance for Nigeria’s oil industry, which has faced challenges stemming from underinvestment and security concerns in recent years.

With oil majors like Shell and TotalEnergies divesting from onshore shallow water operations due to security issues, regulatory approval of the Exxon-Seplat deal could inject much-needed capital into the sector.

Analysts view the impending approval as a potential catalyst for improved oil output in Nigeria. Moreover, it could serve as a positive signal to investors, paving the way for similar deals in the future.

The regulatory clearance of Shell’s asset sale to Renaissance in January has further bolstered expectations regarding the viability of such transactions.

As Nigeria looks to revitalize its oil sector and attract investment, the imminent approval of Exxon Mobil’s asset sale to Seplat Energy marks a significant milestone, bringing an end to a prolonged period of uncertainty and setting the stage for renewed growth and stability in the country’s vital energy industry.

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