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Naira Comes Under Pressure, Reserves Drop to $47.75bn

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Naira - Investors King
  • Naira Comes Under Pressure, Reserves Drop to $47.75bn

The naira has come under pressure against the United States’ dollar in recent days, falling to 366 to the greenback on the parallel market.

The pressure followed the decline in the nation’s foreign exchange reserves for the first time in eight months.

The media reported on May 17 that the external reserves slipped to $47.793bn on May 14 from $47.865bn on Thursday, May 10, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The reserves, which fell further to $47.784bn on May 16, rose to $47.799bn on May 18, but dropped to $47.754bn on May 21, the latest CBN data showed. The reserves figures had not been updated as of the time of filing this report on Tuesday.

“Naira depreciates to a seven-month low of N366/$ on speculative demand. Naira weakness could stoke imported inflation,” analysts at Financial Derivatives Company Limited, headed by Bismarck Rewane, a foremost economist, said in their latest economic bulletin.

Ecobank Capital, in its Middle Africa Market Weekly Update, said depreciation pressures on the naira could emerge with rising risk-averse sentiment on emerging and frontier markets.

“The exchange rate depreciated slightly at the Investors & Exporters window at N361.6/$ and depreciated a bit more at the parallel market at N366/$. Turnover at the IE window rose 13.2 per cent from the prior week to $1.1bn,” they added.

The Chief Executive Officer, Cowry Assets Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said, “Clearly, we have seen some pressure, and it is partly occasioned by the reversal of capital flow. I think what is happening is that foreign portfolio investors are not reinvesting their matured instruments; rather they are converting to dollar to take it out.

“The drop in the reserves is coming from the outflow. The level of inflow is less than the current level of outflow. Once you see currency on the currency, it will manifest in the reserves. This is what we are seeing now that the reserves have seen two weeks of consecutive decline, which was the first in a very long time.”

He said the pressure would continue in the short- to medium-term because “it was also partly associated with the heightened political uncertainty principally coming from the challenges that the ruling party had with their congresses.”

“Until after elections, I do not imagine that the concerns of foreign portfolio investors would have been assuaged,” Chukwu added.

Reuters reported last Thursday that the naira was seen under pressure as portfolio investors continued to exit local treasuries due to lower yields.

It said trade was thin by midday last Thursday as most wanted to buy the dollar, with little supply, adding that the naira last traded at 362.50 for investors on Wednesday, last week.

Yields on Nigeria’s treasuries have fallen to around 12 per cent from as high as 18 per cent a year ago after the government repaid maturing bills rather than roll them over as it has done in the past. The outflow by investors has also been worsened by interest rate rises in the United States.

“A rise in the FX rate might compensate for the drop in yields and that could attract investors back again,” one trader said of the naira.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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