Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook May 16 – 20

Published

8 years ago

May 15, 2016

Forex Weekly Outlook May 16 – 20

Last week, the US released mixed economic data. As mixed as the figures are, the US dollar gained momentum and attracted buyers based on FED’s rate expectations and the possibility of BOJ intervening in the yen recent gains. Why I am not convinced that non-farm payrolls 160,000 jobs added in April and 294,000 surged in unemployment benefits are good enough to raise rates, I am compelled to lean towards dollar new found strength this week. So I will be looking at NZDUSD, USDCAD and GBPJPY this week.

NZDUSD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Graeme Wheeler said last week that risks to the financial stability outlook have increased in the past six months, and this he attributed to lower dairy prices due to increase in global dairy supplies. He also mentioned imbalances in the housing market, while the report wasn’t entirely bad. The poor retail sales 0.8 percent released on Friday was, same with core retail sales that dropped from 1.3 percent to 1 percent.

Click to enlarge

Now, looking at the chart, NZDUSD established ascending channel of January 20th was first broken on May 9th, but the pair pullback on 11th, to retest trendline at 0.6847. Forming an evening star after NZ poor retail sales and better than expected US retail sales reports. This gives us a 232-pips sell opportunity from 0.6847 new resistance level.

This week I am bearish on NZDUSD with 0.6609 as the target, while keeping an eye on Global Dairy Trade and Producer Price Index data due on Tuesday in New Zealand.

USDCAD

As always loonie trend is straight forward, directly proportion to increase in oil prices. But with Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Larence Schembri, saying nothing in particular in the last central bank financial stability report, we will have to find that loophole ourselves. Canada GDP plunged 0.1 percent last month from 0.6 percent gained in the previous month, adding this to trade deficit that surged from 2.5B to 3.4 billion in March. It is obvious all is not well with the Canadian economy as exports is weak.

Click to enlarge

Looking at the chart, immediately the trade balance data came out on the 4th of May, USDCAD closed above trendline for the first time since January 20. And has since established a support at 1.2849, with a pinbar closed on Thursday and bullish daily candlestick on Friday, giving us a morning star pattern, a buying opportunity.

This week I remain bullish on this pair with 1.3142 as my target.

GBPJPY

This is another pair I have been following for a while, first because of the uncertainty created by the European Union and British June 23 referendum vote, second, because I am in tune with BOJ policies and I think GBPJPY has been oversold since the yen starts its gain and currently trading at 3-year low.

After breaking out of the downward trend on April 22, the pair has been unable to sustain 161.71 price level, hence, lost around 600 pips. While buying might not be okay now if you are not looking at long-term, so is selling because of uncertainty surrounding BOJ monetary policy and poor economic data released from the UK last week. Another reason is a possible change in Bank of Japan monetary policy has the potential to trigger a massive buy.

Click to enlarge

From the chart, price retest trendline after break-out and has since been trading above 154.39 support level, as long as this support level holds, I remain bullish on GBPJPY and if referendum came out positive or BOJ make monetary policy changes by adding additional stimulus. I will be looking to buy for 161.71 as first target and 169.21 as second, but until then leave comments and lets interact.

What do you think?

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,380 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

Published

1 day ago

May 3, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,380
Selling Rate: ₦1,370

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,350
Selling Rate: N1,340

Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.