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Winners Rise Among Cairo Stocks as Egypt Starts to Cut Rates

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  • Winners Rise Among Cairo Stocks as Egypt Starts to Cut Rates

Cairo-traded stocks ranging from real-estate to consumer-focused companies, industrials and banks are set to outperform local and emerging-market peers as interest rates drop, analysts and investors predict.

After the Egyptian central bank cut its key rate from a record level last week, investors are likely to scour the stock market to replace returns from high-yielding deposits. Companies will benefit from access to cheaper credit in the Arab world’s most-populous country.

Cairo’s benchmark EGX 30 index has advanced 1.7 percent following the central bank’s 100 basis point reduction in its key rate to 17.75 percent on Feb. 15, the first cut since the currency was floated in November 2016. Since then, the equities gauge has soared more than 70 percent.

Last week’s decision may be the first of several rate reductions as inflation slows, a cycle that will benefit companies “across the board,” says Mohamed Ebeid, joint chief executive officer at the investment bank division of EFG-Hermes Holding SAE. Industrial companies with investment plans will now start putting them into action, said Ahmed Abou El Saad, chairman at Rasmala Egypt Asset Management SAE in Cairo.

Banks

Egyptian lenders are likely to maintain high profit levels as an expected pick up in fees and commissions generated by increased lending offsets a gradual narrowing in the interest margins that have boosted earnings, according to Monsef Morsy, head of financials at the research arm of CI Capital Holding SAE in Cairo.

“This is a sign of the shift in monetary policy in Egypt, which is positive for banks,” Morsy said. “We should expect to see throughout 2018 and 2019 a pick up in loan volumes in working capital financing to the corporate segment, and then we should start to see a pick up in capex lending by the first quarter of 2019, when a further decline in rates and more stability in exchange rates are in place.”

Real Estate

Falling rates mean lower borrowing costs for developers and they have “a direct impact on profitability,” according to Tarek Abdel-Rahman, joint CEO of Palm Hills Developments SAE. It’s also likely that, as keeping cash on deposit becomes less appealing, funds will head to what has proved the favorite investment for Egyptians historically: real estate.

“The cycle of easing is starting and so you would find more cash outside the banking sector,” Abdel-Rahman said by phone from Cairo. “There will be more inflows in the real economy in general, and real estate will take a good portion of it.”

Consumer Stocks

While one cut in interest rates may not be enough for producers to resume expansion plans stalled by high borrowing costs, a cycle of reductions by the central bank would inject optimism into a sector hit hard by the plunge in the value of the pound.

“Cutting the interest by one percent isn’t a game changer, but it is positive to show that the cutting trend has begun,” said Ashraf Sharif, vice chairman and managing director of cheesemaker Obour Land for Food Industries. “When there is a decent fall in borrowing costs, it will help enhance our performance.” Lower rates for deposits will increase liquidity and purchasing power, “which will help create a recovery in the market,” he said.

Industrials

“There are companies that are extremely leveraged and they’ll be able to get refinancing at lower levels,” said Abou El Saad of Rasmala Egypt Asset Management. “Companies working with heavy industries that have strong capex plans will see this is as a catalyst to start putting their growth and expansion plans into action.”

Abou El Saad favors companies “going for expansion” within the industrial and petrochemical universe, because the rate cuts “won’t be a one time event. It actually will boost these companies for years, rather than just a momentum-driven jump.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Tinubu’s Government to Convert Fuel Stations to CNG Outlets for Cheaper, Cleaner Energy

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, has revealed President Bola Tinubu’s plans to convert fuel stations into Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) outlets to provide Nigerians with an affordable alternative to petrol.

In a statement on Wednesday, while addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, Ekpo confirmed that the President intends to expand the use of CNG across the country.

The minister emphasized that CNG is here to stay and urged Nigerians to embrace the initiative, adding that it is safe, cheaper, and environmentally friendly.

He said, “We are well aware that the President set up a Presidential Committee on the CNG to drive the CNG project. It is left for us to inform the general public that CNG has come to stay, and we have to follow that route because CNG is safe, cheaper, and protects the environment.

“It is important to note that when you are using CNG, you save a lot of money, a litre of fuel can go for N1000, but you get CNG at N200 per litre, which saves you N800.

“With the passion of Mr President, the push that he has given to us, we’ll try to drive the CNG programme to reach the nooks and crannies of this country.

“We have to take advantage of the natural resources, gas, that God has endowed us with.

“What we produce in our country is more than enough for us to use for CNG; and of course, you know, we are exporting to so many other countries.”

This development follows a recent CNG vehicle explosion at the NIPCO CNG station on Eyean, Auchi Road, Edo State, which resulted in multiple injuries and damage to vehicles in the vicinity.

Fortunately, no deaths were recorded.

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Crude Oil

Large US Crude Inventories Weaken Oil Prices

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Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed that US crude inventories rose as traders continued to consider the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, shed $1.08, or 1.42 per cent to settle at $74.96 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped by 97 cents, or 1.35 per cent to $70.77.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week to October 18.

The inventory change followed an American Petroleum Institute (API) estimate of a build totalling 1.64 million barrels for the reported period. It also compared with a draw of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week, as reported by the EIA last Thursday.

In petrol, the American authority estimated an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the week to October 18, with production averaging 10 million barrels daily.

This compared with an inventory decline of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week when petrol production averaged 9.3 million barrels daily.

Market analysts noted that the crude inventory build is due to the recent hurricane in the US which curtailed production in the largest oil producer in the world.

Pressure also came as the US dollar index rose to its highest point in late July.

A strong US Dollar can hurt demand for oil, which is priced in the American currency, as it makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market also continued to monitor developments and concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East.

On Wednesday, there was no tangible outcome from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest visit to Israel.

Israel continues to pound both Gaza and Lebanon, and most recently it killed the next in line to the top spot at Hezbollah, Hashem Safieddine, sparking expectations of retaliation.

Mr Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy air strikes carried out by Israel on a Lebanese port city Tyre showed that there is no calm in sight.

Market participants expect the conflict to go on longer and have taken advantage of the events unfolding to price longer.

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Gold

Gold Continues Gains Amid Political Uncertainty in the US

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gold bars - Investors King

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

Gold continues to reap historic gains today, touching $2,758 per ounce for the first time.

Gold’s rise comes amid heightened political uncertainty, driven by the approaching U.S. presidential election and the tightening poll results between the candidates. The absence of any near prospect for a ceasefire on any of the Middle East’s raging fronts also keeps the yellow metal’s appeal high.

While gold’s continued rise despite the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields seems to reinforce the hypothesis that this rise is driven by increasing uncertainty rather than hope for lower interest rates.

With less than two weeks to go until the presidential election, we see no clear lead for either candidate over the other. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is 1.7 percentage points ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the average of the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight.

This closeness in the polls may reduce bets on risky assets, which may be volatile sharply after the results are announced, and at the same time, it may boost demand for safe assets.

During the previous two sessions, the largest physical gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), attracted net positive inflows of about $580 million, while the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded about $82 million in inflows during the same period.

However, Wall Street does not seem to share the same views. The Wall Street Journal talked about the increasing bets by hedge funds on the possibility of a Donald Trump victory. Some are betting on further strengthening of the dollar as Trump imposes tariffs and reignites trade wars.

This will fuel inflation, which in turn is reflected in the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which reflect expectations of future interest rate hikes.

This in turn may be a negative factor that pressures gold to curb its gains, but in contrast, the International Monetary Fund sees high uncertainty about the future. The trade war and tariffs would disrupt global supply chains and hinder growth in the medium term.

Further, in the Middle East, we have seen increasing talk from the US administration about pushing for a ceasefire, especially with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel. However, I do not believe that this will lead to any tangible progress towards stopping the war on any of the regional fronts.

Egypt has presented a small proposal for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. However, this proposal does not seem to lead to anything, especially since the far-right ministers in Israel are opposing it, according to what Israeli officials told Axios earlier this week.

This is regarding a temporary ceasefire, while reaching an agreement for a permanent ceasefire and ending the war will be even more difficult. Hamas also may not accept the return of the hostages unless the war stops, according to The New York Times.

As for Lebanon, Israel has sent to US the conditions for ending its war there, which are believed to be unacceptable to Lebanon because they constitute a violation of sovereignty, according to Axios as well. The conditions include granting Israel the freedom to carry out military operations inside Lebanon.

In addition, Nicholas Kristof says in an opinion piece in The New York Times that he is skeptical about capitalizing on the “opportunity” to stop the war after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar due to the lack of significant pressure from the US administration on Israel. He also believes that the momentum around this opportunity may fade in the coming days as the escalation worsens if Israel attacks Iran, prompting the latter to carry out a counter-response.

Instead of seeking to reach an agreement to stop the war, we see growing momentum inside Israel for the idea of ​​resettling the Gaza Strip, which contradicts any peace efforts. The Wall Street Journal mentioned further promote for this idea by members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, which describes itself as liberal, and this comes in conjunction with the escalating rhetoric of the extreme religious right about resettlement.

Accordingly, I believe that the increasing talk about the hope that a calm is approaching in this regional war is exaggerated and it will diminish with the coming rounds of escalation.

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