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Facebook Shares Tumble on Lower Engagement Announcement

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  • Facebook Shares Tumble on Lower Engagement Announcement

Facebook Inc. said it’s making major changes to its flagship social network, shifting users’ news feeds back toward posts from friends and family and away from businesses and media outlets — a transition that is likely to mean people spend less time on the site. The shares tumbled the most in more than a year.

In a post Thursday, Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said community feedback has shown that public content has been “crowding out the personal moments that lead us to connect more with each other.” The goal of the product teams will be to help Facebook’s more than 2 billion monthly users find content that will lead to more meaningful social interactions, he said.

Facebook and companies from Twitter Inc. to Apple Inc. have been confronting a mounting public backlash against technology and social media, as the public grapples with a constantly connected life in which they are exposed to fake or biased news, cyber bullying and even internet addiction. Zuckerberg’s vision for Facebook has always been a platform for giving people a voice and a place to make meaningful connections, though he spent much of last year on the defensive.

“By making these changes, I expect the time people spend on Facebook and some measures of engagement will go down,” Zuckerberg wrote. “But I also expect the time you do spend on Facebook will be more valuable. And if we do the right thing, I believe that will be good for our community and our business over the long term too.”

Facebook’s shares fell as much as 5.5 percent, the most since November 2016, to $177.40. They were trading down 4.1 percent at 9:45 a.m. in New York.

Last week, Zuckerberg said his resolution for 2018 was to “fix” the social network he co-founded. His vow followed a year that saw Facebook come under sharp criticism for contributing to a climate of extreme political polarization, the distribution of fake news and escalating privacy concerns. Last year, lawmakers berated Facebook, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Twitter for failing to prevent Russian manipulation on their platforms during the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

“This is recognition of the issues they’ve faced with toxic content,” said Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group. “People are frustrated with the Russia revelations and fake news and have taken it into their own hands and stopped engaging.”

The Menlo Park, California-based company has kept revenue growing by consistently selling more advertising in its news feed, striking partnerships with media companies to distribute their stories, and including more video postings, which draw higher ad rates. Facebook’s latest changes don’t impact ads — only business and media-oriented content posted by pages and other people, according to a person familiar with the matter.

European Union competition chief Margrethe Vestager said Friday that allowing advertisers to tailor political content to personal tastes on social media such as Facebook is a danger to democracy, according to interview in Vienna’s Der Standard newspaper.

In a note earlier this week, Wieser reported Nielsen data showing that in September — the most recent month for which this data is available — core Facebook consumption failed to grow year-over-year for a second consecutive month.

“Facebook is already experiencing declines in consumption and the company is responding with these changes today,” Wieser said. “Good on Facebook — they are doing the right thing, long-term. It may not be good for the business in the short term.”

Facebook’s popularity and user growth have skyrocketed since its founding in 2004, when it was a sort of online scrapbook and bulletin board for college students. In the company’s early years, the news feed was a scrolling update about the personal activities of friends and family members. Months before the company went public in 2012, Facebook started featuring “sponsored story” ads in users’ feeds, and it rolled out mobile advertising that same year. Since then, annual sales have soared from $5.1 billion to an estimated $40.2 billion last year — and the news feed has become increasingly crowded with advertisements and posts from brands and publications.

The changes promised aren’t entirely new — Facebook has been shifting the content on its news feed toward posts from friends and family and away from brands and publications for more than a year. With the latest change, Facebook’s algorithm will prioritize posts that spark back-and-forth discussion or inspire people to share and react. That means posts like a friend asking for advice, recommendations for a trip or an article that prompts interaction, according to a post by Facebook’s head of news feed, Adam Mosseri.

A large part of brands and media companies’ strategies is to post articles and videos from their pages to engage consumers — items that aren’t considered “meaningful interactions” between people. Downplaying those posts from brands and businesses may put revenue at risk, said James Cakmak, an analyst at Monness Crespi Hardt & Co.

“There will be less opportunity to expose Facebook users to brands,” Cakmak said. “But those opportunities to get in front of users will be that much more impactful if it’s more selective.”

Though the shift back to personal interaction may not mean fewer paid marketing spots in users’ feeds, any drop in engagement and attention may still translate to fewer ad dollars. Travis Parker Martin is the co-founder of Bootkik, a Calgary-based startup that attributes the majority of its growth to its Facebook presence. More than 90 percent of the education startup’s marketing budget has been spent on Facebook ads. Given Thursday’s announcement, Martin said he plans to significantly decrease that.

“Only a few weeks ago, we decided that we might be better served growing our presence on YouTube. We were frustrated that the returns were diminishing on Facebook.” Martin said. “This confirms that we will have to pursue other channels.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Steady as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope, Red Sea Attacks Persist

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Amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts, oil prices remained relatively stable as hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas emerged, while attacks in the Red Sea continued to escalate.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw a modest rise of 27 cents to $88.67 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 30 cents to $82.93 a barrel.

The optimism stems from negotiations between Israel and Hamas with talks in Cairo aiming to broker a potential ceasefire.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis persist, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, emphasized the importance of a concrete agreement to drive market sentiment, stating that the oil market awaits a finalized deal between the conflicting parties.

Meanwhile, investor focus remains on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review, particularly in light of persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for any rate adjustments have been pushed out due to stubborn inflation, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and impacting oil demand.

Concerns over demand also weigh on sentiment, with ANZ analysts noting a decline in premiums for diesel and heating oil compared to crude oil, signaling subdued demand prospects.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and market dynamics evolve, observers closely monitor developments in both the Middle East and global economic policies for their potential impact on oil prices and market stability.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Sink 1% as Israel-Hamas Talks in Cairo Ease Middle East Tensions

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices declined on Monday, shedding 1% of their value as Israel-Hamas peace negotiations in Cairo alleviated fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

The easing tensions coupled with U.S. inflation data contributed to the subdued market sentiment and erased gains made earlier.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by as much as 1.09% to 8.52 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell by 0.99% to $83.02 a barrel.

The initiation of talks to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas played a pivotal role in moderating geopolitical concerns, according to analysts.

A delegation from Hamas was set to engage in peace discussions in Cairo on Monday, as confirmed by a Hamas official to Reuters.

Also, statements from the White House indicated that Israel had agreed to address U.S. concerns regarding the potential humanitarian impacts of the proposed invasion.

Market observers also underscored the significance of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review on May 1.

Anticipation of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee added to investor nervousness, particularly in light of Friday’s data revealing a 2.7% rise in U.S. inflation over the previous 12 months, surpassing the Fed’s 2% target.

This heightened inflationary pressure reduced the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts, which are typically seen as stimulative for economic growth and oil demand.

Independent market analysts highlighted the role of the strengthening U.S. dollar in exacerbating the downward pressure on oil prices, as higher interest rates tend to attract capital flows and bolster the dollar’s value, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Moreover, concerns about weakening demand surfaced with China’s industrial profit growth slowing down in March, as reported by official data. This trend signaled potential challenges for oil consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.

However, amidst the current market dynamics, optimism persists regarding potential upside in oil prices. Analysts noted that improvements in U.S. inventory data and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) could reverse the downward trend.

Also, previous gains in oil prices, fueled by concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, indicate the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the region.

Despite these fluctuations, the market appeared to brush aside potential disruptions to supply resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries over the weekend. The attack temporarily halted operations at the Slavyansk refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to a plant executive.

As oil markets navigate through geopolitical tensions and economic indicators, the outcome of ongoing negotiations and future data releases will likely shape the trajectory of oil prices in the coming days.

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Commodities

Cocoa Fever Sweeps Market: Prices Set to Break $15,000 per Ton Barrier

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Cocoa

The cocoa market is experiencing an unprecedented surge with prices poised to shatter the $15,000 per ton barrier.

The cocoa industry, already reeling from supply shortages and production declines in key regions, is now facing a frenzy of speculative trading and bullish forecasts.

At the recent World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed unanimous confidence in the continuation of the cocoa rally.

According to their predictions, New York futures could trade above $15,000 a ton before the year’s end, marking yet another milestone in the relentless ascent of cocoa prices.

The surge in cocoa prices has been fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.

Shortages of cocoa beans have left buyers scrambling for supplies and willing to pay exorbitant premiums, exacerbating the market tightness.

To cope with the supply crunch, Ivory Coast and Ghana have resorted to rolling over contracts totaling around 400,000 tons of cocoa, further exacerbating the scarcity.

Traders are increasingly turning to cocoa stocks held in exchanges in London and New York, despite concerns about their quality, as the shortage of high-quality beans intensifies.

Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, noted that quality considerations have taken a backseat for most processors amid the supply crunch, leading them to accept cocoa from exchanges despite its perceived inferiority.

This shift in dynamics is expected to further deplete stocks and provide additional support to cocoa prices.

The cocoa rally has already seen prices surge by about 160% this year, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark in New York.

This meteoric rise has put significant pressure on traders and chocolate makers, who are grappling with rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market.

Despite the challenges posed by soaring cocoa prices, stakeholders across the value chain have demonstrated a willingness to absorb the cost increases.

Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, noted that the market has been able to pass on price increases from chocolate makers to consumers, highlighting the resilience of the cocoa industry.

However, concerns linger about the eventual impact of the price surge on consumers, with some chocolate makers still covered for supplies.

According to Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, the full effects of the price increase may take six months to a year to materialize, posing a potential future challenge for consumers.

As the cocoa market continues to navigate uncharted territory all eyes remain on the unfolding developments, with traders, analysts, and industry stakeholders bracing for further volatility and potential record-breaking price levels in the days ahead.

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