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IMF Puts Global Cost of Bribery at $2tn Annually

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IMF director Christine Lagarde
  • IMF Puts Global Cost of Bribery at $2tn Annually

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that the annual cost of bribery — just one sub-set of corruption — to be between $1.5 and $2trillion.

This, the Fund estimated to be about two per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

It argued that the costs represent the tip of the iceberg, saying the long-term impacts are much deeper.

The Managing Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said this in a presentation titled: ‘Addressing Corruption with Clarity,’ at the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, on Monday.

It is believed that bribery and corruption is one of the factors that have hindered growth in a lot of African countries, including Nigeria.

However, Lagarde, pointed out that in order to tackle corruption, there was the need to acknowledge the problem plainly and measure its impact accurately.

“We all know that corruption is a complex problem often involving multiple actors who operate in the shadows.

“Consider just one example — a bribe in the extractive industries. Yes, a local official may demand a bribe, or a government ministry may turn a blind eye, but what about the company who proffers the money? Surely, it participates in the illicit transaction.

“After all, for every bribe accepted, one must be offered. For this reason, as we assist our members in fighting public corruption, we also are committed to looking at transnational private actors who influence public officials.

“Private actors may help generate corruption through direct means such as bribery, but they also can facilitate corruption through indirect means, such as money laundering and tax evasion,” she explained.

According to her, the case of the “Panama Papers,” underscored the pernicious way corruption can quietly spread across borders.

She noted the growing consensus among members that corruption remains a macro-critical issue in many countries.

“It has become clear that systemic corruption undermines the ability of states to deliver inclusive growth and lift people out of poverty.

“It is a corrosive force that eviscerates the vitality of business and stunts a country’s economic potential.

“Think of a government spending taxpayer money on a glamorous, but unnecessary new convention centre, whose ulterior purpose is to generate kick-backs.

“A year after construction begins, it turns out that funds in the social service coffers are somehow no longer available for their original beneficiaries.

“Over time, the money diverted from education or health care perpetuates inequality, and limits the possibility of better paying jobs and a better life,” she said.

According to her, as this type of corruption becomes institutionalised, distrust in government grows and poisons the ability of a nation to attract foreign direct investment. The result is a negative feedback loop from which it is difficult to break free, she added.

She added: “Millennials feel this reality acutely. A recent survey of global youth revealed that young people identify corruption, not jobs, not lack of education, as the most pressing concern in their own countries.

“There is wisdom in this insight — since corruption is a root cause of many of the economic injustices young men and women experience every day.

“Young people also understand another truth; corruption is not limited to one kind of country or economy — it can impact every nation. From embezzlement, to nepotism, to terrorist financing, corruption’s nefarious tentacles can take on different forms depending on the environment where it incubates.”

Lagarde further said tackling corruption has long been a part of IMF work.

She disclosed that last month, the IMF Executive Board took stock of the fund’s progress and committed to confronting the problem even more directly moving forward.

She said the Board agreed that members would benefit from an increase in granular policy advice, and a candid, even-handed assessment of the economic impact of corruption.

“To achieve this goal, new methodologies are needed to better quantify and analyse the problem. That is why I am pleased that today’s event marks the launch of two new anti-corruption research initiatives led by Brookings, the World Bank, the IFC, and their partners.

“Since corruption is often hidden and difficult to measure, new policies can take years to become effective. Meanwhile, some governments are reluctant to even engage on the issue because they see corruption as a political, and not an economic problem. But that is no reason to stop pressing forward.

“I believe the IMF can only be true to its mandate if we speak about corruption with clarity and offer all the tools at our disposal to help our members,” she added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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Crude Oil

Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Concerns and Saudi Supply Signals

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Crude oil

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday on renewed concerns in the Middle East and signals from Saudi Arabia regarding its crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, surged by 51 cents to $83.47 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 53 cents to $78.64 a barrel.

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hamas has amplified fears of a widening conflict in the key oil-producing region, prompting investors to closely monitor developments.

Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza have been underway, but prospects for a deal appeared slim as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The uncertainty surrounding the conflict was further exacerbated on Monday when Israel’s military called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation, sparking concerns of a potential ground assault.

Analysts warned that such developments risk derailing ceasefire negotiations and reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June.

This move signaled the kingdom’s anticipation of strong demand during the summer months and contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

The uptick in prices comes after both Brent and WTI crude futures posted their steepest weekly losses in three months last week, reflecting concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, with most of the long positions in oil cleared last week, analysts suggest that the risks are skewed towards a rebound in prices in the early part of this week, particularly for WTI prices towards the $80 mark.

Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest crude importer, services activity remained in expansionary territory for the 16th consecutive month, signaling a sustained economic recovery.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term.

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices.

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