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Uncertainty Over N4.314tr Revenue from Marginal Fields

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  • Uncertainty Over N4.314tr Revenue from Marginal Fields

The nation’s plan to earn additional $14.100 billion (N4.314 trillion) from 300 million barrels of crude oil is uncertain as licensed marginal fields are unable to engage in meaningful exploration and production activities 13 years after.

The country targets daily earnings of $4.23 million (N1.29 billion) from an average of 90,000 barrels of oil per day. Experts say that 18 of the marginal fields with an average capacity of 5,000 bpd each could produce 90,000 bpd of crude oil.

This leakage is a major loss to the economy as the revenue would have been used to plug budget deficits and provide infrastructure that would boost national development.

Data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) indicate that the Federal Government has 200 fields classified as marginal by operators due to low-ranking in investment portfolio and/or remoteness to existing facilities.

According to the NNPC, of the 200 fields, 24 granted licences by the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) have an estimated reserve of about 300 million barrels of crude. Of the 30 marginal fields awarded by the government since 2004, only 12 are active. It was learnt that18 of these licences have been classified as non-producing and require the farmees to relinquish the assets (having had the opportunity of a licence renewal after the initial five years duration expired).

The marginal fields awarded cumulatively produce around 2.6 per cent of daily oil production and 2.5 per cent of the estimated 4,000 MMscf gas productions in the country, due largely to the inability of indigenous firms to fully monetise the assets.

The producing wells, according to the latest statistics from the DPR, are Egbaoma Oil Mining Licence (OML) 38 belonging to Platform Petroleum; Ebendo OML 56 belonging to Energia Limited; OML 56 Omusati, Pillar Oil Limited; OML 56 Ebok, Oriental Energy; OML 54 Ogbelle, Niger Delta Petroleum Limited; and OML 56 Umusadege, Midwestern Oil and Gas.

Others are OML 90 Ajapa, Brittania-U Nigeria Limited; OML 16 Ibigwe, Walter Smith Petroleum Oil Limited; OML 13 Uquo, Frontier Oil Limited; Universal Energy and Network Exploration and Production.

DPR listed some of the non-producing marginal fields to include Oil Mining Licences (OML) 54, Omerelu oil field operated by Niger Delta Petroleum Limited; Otakikpo OML 11, Green Energy International; Ubima OML 17, All Grace Energy; Okwok OML 67, Oriental Energy; Amoji OML 56, Chorus Energy; Ekeh OML 88, Mavido Exploration and Production; and Oriri OML 88, Goland Petroleum.

Others are Ke OML 54, Del Sigma Limited; Dawes Island OML 54, Eurafric Energy; Ogedeh OML 90, Bicta Energy System; Akepo OML 90, Sogenal Limited; Ororo OML 95, Guarantee Petroleum; and Asaramatoru OML 11, Prime Energy Limited.

The discovery of one of the non-producing fields, Okwok, was made by a joint venture between NNPC and Mobil Producing Nigeria, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil.

According to the latest estimates, Okwok contains more than 70 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves. The stock tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) is estimated to be 225 million barrels of oil.

Akepo Field (OML 90’s) total proven reserves are estimated at 81 million barrels. The probable reserves are estimated at 410 million barrels and possible reserves at 1.243 billion barrels.

Asaramatoru marginal field is an onshore field in Rivers State with Shell/NNPC and JV partners as leaseholder. The field is estimated to contain a recoverable reserve of 28 mbbl of oil and 2.7 bscf of associated gas. Stubb Creek field is estimated to contain 20 mmbbl oil and 450 bscf of gas (proven and probable reserves). Ekeh oil field owned by Movido Exploration and Production has a reserve base of 25 million barrels and is yet to take off.

Also, Otakikpo marginal oil field operated by Green Energy International has an estimated 56.75 million barrels of oil (mmbbl), with an additional 70 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas reserves.

Ogedeh Field (OML 90) is an oil and gas field located in the shallow water offshore Niger Delta. It is fully covered by 3D seismic, and the technical analysis indicates that the Ogedeh licence area holds hydrocarbon prospective resources likely to be in the range of 10 to 25 million barrels of oil, with gas reserves in the order of 25 BCF.

On the issue of idle marginal field, President of Nigeria Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), Abiodun Adesanya, said that International Oil Companies (IOCs) made these discoveries. “Later they did not meet the threshold of their corporate size and therefore they keep them idle. But that might change somebody else’s life and so opportunity should be given to such a person,” he said.

According to Adesanya, some of the fields are idle because the funding is not in place to develop them, especially the government’s part of the funding. “Even though government has come up with a plan to let each project go out to the capital market to raise funds for itself, it is a good idea, but you have a backlog from the higher valued ones until you trickle down,” he said.

Also, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Energia Limited, Felix Valentine Amieyeofori, said that there was the need to structure a marginal field company to look like an exploration and production company.

“There are lots of co-ventures and partnership issues. There are technology and experience gaps, and rather than use local or foreign experts, some of the marginal fields’ operators still resort to the use of the trial and error method of restructuring.”

On the issue of finance, Amieyeofori, noted: “Some of us who have been in production, we are trying to tell them the different models of financing. It does not have to be the banks.

“There are service companies that are ready to finance marginal field companies and then get paid on production. There are people that are off takers who can give money to develop these fields and there is a guarantee to lift up the crude.”

The Chairman of Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria, Bank Anthony Okoroafor, stated that Nigeria’s target of increasing our crude oil reserves to 40 billion barrels and production to four million barrels per day could only be achieved when we invest in explorations and developments. “New blocks should be given out for people to explore. We should conduct blocks and marginal bid rounds so people will explore and share with government; incentivise people to come and explore new areas; new bid rounds under laws that are friendly to investors,” he added.

Meanwhile, the NNPC has said it saves about $3billion annually from the reduction of crude oil operation costs since 2015.

The corporation also drove the cost of crude oil production down from $78 dollars per barrel as at August 2015 to $23 per barrel representing 70.5% reduction.

The Group General Manager of National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NAPIMS), a unit of NNPC, Dafe Sejebor, disclosed this during the inauguration of the anti-corruption committee of the unit.

Sejebor said NAPIMS arrived at the figure after looking at the difference between the $78 and $23 which represents the old and new costs of production in relation to the present daily average production in the country.

“If you knock down your cost of production from $78 per barrel to $23, take the difference and multiply by the average daily production, you will discover that we are saving a minimum of $3billion in the upstream for both Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) and Joint Ventures (JVs),” he said.

The GGM disclosed that the target was to bring the cost of production to between $17 and $19 for onshore and offshore production.

He commended the Federal Government for its support to the NNPC management in tackling the challenges in the petroleum industry, especially the cash call exit agreement signed in 2016 and the reduction of contracting circle from three years to six months.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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Gold

Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Steady as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope, Red Sea Attacks Persist

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Amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts, oil prices remained relatively stable as hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas emerged, while attacks in the Red Sea continued to escalate.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw a modest rise of 27 cents to $88.67 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 30 cents to $82.93 a barrel.

The optimism stems from negotiations between Israel and Hamas with talks in Cairo aiming to broker a potential ceasefire.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis persist, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, emphasized the importance of a concrete agreement to drive market sentiment, stating that the oil market awaits a finalized deal between the conflicting parties.

Meanwhile, investor focus remains on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review, particularly in light of persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for any rate adjustments have been pushed out due to stubborn inflation, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and impacting oil demand.

Concerns over demand also weigh on sentiment, with ANZ analysts noting a decline in premiums for diesel and heating oil compared to crude oil, signaling subdued demand prospects.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and market dynamics evolve, observers closely monitor developments in both the Middle East and global economic policies for their potential impact on oil prices and market stability.

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