Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook June 12-16

Published

7 years ago

June 11, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook June 12-16

The uncertainty in the global financial markets weighed on the foreign exchange outlook amid a series of political uprising across top financial nations. While the diverse policies formulated to aid economic growth towards Central Banks’ target have not been outright effective, the data from the U.S, Euro-area, Japan, etc remain solid, even as commodity dipped across the board.

EURUSD

The euro single currency has gained about 7 percent against the U.S dollar this year, however, the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi on Thursday lower inflation forecast to 1.6 percent through 2019, while revising upward the economic growth rate and maintaining the same size of bond-buying program. This indicates that the apex bank has no exit strategy for QE yet, especially after confirming there is still downside risk to growth—which further creates mixed outlook of the Euro single currency.

Again, while the US dollar has been battered by the US political uncertainty, the recent economic data remained moderately strong. Also, the FBI James Comey testimony did little to nothing to alter the US dollar strength. But the weak job data and slow wage recorded in May are likely to prevent the Federal Open Market Committee from raising rates on Thursday.

Technically, it is unlikely this pair will break the 8 months high recorded at 1.1299 price level after ECB mixed economic outlook of the Euro that prompts sell-off of this pair. Therefore, I will be looking to sell this pair below the 1.1190 levels that double as the 20-day moving average for 1.1117 targets, and expect a sustained break to attract enough sellers to sustain the selloff towards target 2 as shown above.

GBPJPY

The Pound Sterling plunged after Theresa May’s Conservative Party failed to secure 326 seats needed to form a majority government on June 8. Pushing risks exposure and market uncertainty to a new height after economic data showed consumer spending that contributes 70 percent of the economy and housing prices declined.

On the other hand, the Japanese Yen continued to gain from strong economic growth and relatively stable politics. Even though, the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Japan is far from meeting its inflation target of 2 percent, the haven currency is like to continue to gain against the Pound ahead of Brexit talk and U.K political uncertainty.

Since I first mentioned this pair sell potential last week, it has dropped 187 pips, however, that is below our first target of 134.90. Therefore, this week I remained bearish on this pair for two reasons: One, the last week candlestick closed below the 20-day moving average, and further validated the pound sell-off. Two, the politics in the U.K and poor fundamental will plunge long term investment that will gradually hurt earnings and job creation. Eventually, weak business confidence and high consumer prices will hurt domestic demand and the Pound strengths.

Accordingly, I will be looking to add to my sell order below the ascending channel at 139.33 for 134.90 take profit this week.

USDJPY

Please note that after our first target was hit on USDJPY last week. The pair rebounded to 110 price levels. Therefore, this week I will be standing aside to better monitor price action.

Up Next

Pound Extends Drop as U.K. Political Chaos Adds to Brexit Stress

Don't Miss

Kuroda Says Japan Still a ‘Long Way’ From Meeting Inflation Goal

Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Comments

Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,380 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

Published

14 hours ago

May 3, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,380
Selling Rate: ₦1,370

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,350
Selling Rate: N1,340

Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.