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N19tn Debt: NESG, Utomi, Rewane, Others Call for Caution

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  • NESG, Utomi, Rewane, Others Call for Caution

Economic and financial experts have raised the alarm over the nation’s rising debt burden, calling on the Federal Government to spend more on capital expenditure and exercise care in its quest for more borrowing.

The experts, who spoke in separate interviews with our correspondents on Tuesday, reacted to the N7.1tn increase in the nation’s total debt in two years to N19.16tn as of March 2017.

A professor of Political Economy and management expert, Pat Utomi, said, “A country is not different from a household, more or less generally, in terms of how it manages its finances. So, if your personal debt profile is going up at that rate, will you be comfortable?

“However, there are times that you need to spend your way, literally speaking, out of a challenge of output; recession being one of those. But I think that even at that, you need a certain level of care to make sure that you don’t get into an unsustainable debt scenario.”

Utomi expressed hope that the government would be more careful even if the recession required spending.

“My big worry is that the impact of the borrowing may not be reflected on output, in the sense that if we get into a double whammy where our debt balloons, but we don’t have the necessary stimulation of production, especially when our consumption is very external in its orientation, we need be very careful to watch all of those,” he added.

The Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said it was wrong for the government to be mainly borrowing to support recurrent expenditure.

He said, “We need to move away from debts for recurrent expenditure to debts for capital expenditure, which is projects-specific. The debt level itself is not dangerous, but the debt service level – the debt burden – is very high.

“We are using 66 per cent of our independent revenue to pay interest. So, interest rates must come down substantially, or else, we are in trouble.”

The Board Chairman, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, a private sector think tank and policy advocacy group, Mr. Kyari Bukar, said the amount of debt should not be a cause for concern considering the low debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio of the country.

“What one needs to pay attention to is the debt service amount versus the capital expenditure of the budget. The debt servicing and the ability to service the debts are the key areas of concerns that we should pay attention to,” he said.

The 2017 Appropriation Bill, which was passed into law by the National Assembly recently, provided N1.84tn for debt servicing compared to the N2.17tn provided for capital expenditure for all sectors of the economy.

“The kind of debt I will like to see happen is the debt where the money that is borrowed goes into productive sectors such as investment in railways, health care, education and other critical infrastructure. However, if we borrow to pay salaries, it starts to become a problem,” Bukar added.

A professor of Economics at the Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago Iwoye, Sheriffdeen Tella, said, “It is not healthy to continue to increase our debts. In fact, the growth in the last two years has been quite alarming, and so there is a need for us to slow down on it. It is not the debt itself that is important, but the interest rates that you pay on such debt and the usage of the debt.

“If the government is going to spend more, as people have advised, the normal thing is that when you have a problem of depression, you go into expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The expansionary fiscal policy, which is government spending more, must be based on the budget.

“When we say government should spend more, the budget must be approved early enough; and so, when the government is spending on time, even if it is not much, the economy will expand on the basis of that.”

Some other stakeholders called for the appropriate utilisation of the N7.1tn borrowed by the Federal Government and the 36 states of the federation in the last two years.

The Managing Director, SHI-Logistics Limited, Dr. Mike Omotosho, said the increasing debt meant that the burden of servicing it would increase.

Doubting the correct use of borrowed funds, Omotosho said it was wrong for the government to use debt to finance routine government expenses.

He stated, “First, if we compare the percentage of our debt to our Gross Domestic Product, it is foolhardy to think we will not feel the negative effects on the long run.

“Borrowing in itself is not the main problem but what we spent the money on. In the last two years, I doubt if we have spent up to N2.5tn on infrastructure and other key policies that can help the economy and the people.”

He added, “This means that over 60 per cent of the debt has gone into recurrent expenditure. There is no way the nation will not pay for this pretty soon. We had N6tn budget in 2016 and about N2.4tn, representing about 40 per cent, went into debt servicing. Now, that the debt profile has jumped up, imagine what will go into debt servicing.

“Our policymakers hardly consider the negative impact of debt when they go on a borrowing spree. I would have preferred we take the right way out of our quagmire rather than a decoy easy way that is filled with traps.”

An associate professor of Finance at the Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Uche Uwaleke, said there was no problem if the government utilised the loans to finance projects that would pay back the monies borrowed.

However, he added, if the funds were utilised to fund consumption, then the government had succeeded in mortgaging the future of the nation.

Uwaleke said, “A country like Nigeria with huge infrastructure deficit will have to borrow if it must develop at a fast pace.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Fitch Ratings Raises Egypt’s Credit Outlook to Positive Amid $57 Billion Bailout

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Fitch Ratings has upgraded Egypt’s credit outlook to positive, reflecting growing confidence in the North African nation’s economic prospects following an international bailout of $57 billion.

The upgrade comes as Egypt secured a landmark bailout package to bolster its cash-strapped economy and provide much-needed relief amidst economic challenges exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the global pandemic.

Fitch affirmed Egypt’s credit rating at B-, positioning it six notches below investment grade. However, the shift in outlook to positive shows the country’s progress in addressing external financing risks and implementing crucial economic reforms.

The positive outlook follows Egypt’s recent agreements, including a $35 billion investment deal with the United Arab Emirates as well as additional support from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

According to Fitch Ratings, the reduction in near-term external financing risks can be attributed to the significant investment pledges from the UAE, coupled with Egypt’s adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and the implementation of monetary tightening measures.

These measures have enabled Egypt to navigate its foreign exchange challenges and mitigate the impact of years of managed currency policies.

The recent jumbo interest rate hike has also facilitated the devaluation of the Egyptian pound, addressing one of the country’s most pressing economic issues.

Egypt has faced mounting economic pressures in recent years, including foreign exchange shortages exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the region.

Challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and security threats in the Israel-Gaza region have further strained the country’s economic stability.

In response, Egyptian authorities have embarked on a series of reform efforts aimed at enhancing economic resilience and promoting private-sector growth.

These efforts include the sale of state-owned assets, curbing government spending, and reducing the influence of the military in the economy.

While Fitch Ratings’ positive outlook signals confidence in Egypt’s economic trajectory, other rating agencies have also expressed optimism.

S&P Global Ratings has assigned Egypt a B- rating with a positive outlook, while Moody’s Ratings assigns a Caa1 rating with a positive outlook.

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Fitch Ratings Lifts Nigeria’s Credit Outlook to Positive Amidst Reform Progress

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Fitch Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive, citing the country’s reform progress under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

This decision is a turning point for Africa’s largest economy and signals growing confidence in its economic trajectory.

The announcement comes six months after Fitch Ratings acknowledged the swift pace of reforms initiated since President Tinubu assumed office in May of the previous year.

According to Fitch, the positive outlook reflects the government’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at B-, underscoring its confidence in the country’s ability to navigate economic challenges and drive sustainable growth.

Previously, Fitch had expressed concerns about governance issues, security challenges, high inflation, and a heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.

However, the ratings agency expressed optimism that President Tinubu’s market-friendly reforms would address these challenges, paving the way for increased investment and economic growth.

President Tinubu’s administration has implemented a series of policy changes aimed at reducing subsidies on fuel and electricity while allowing for a more flexible exchange rate regime.

These measures, coupled with a significant depreciation of the Naira and savings from subsidy reductions, have bolstered the government’s fiscal position and attracted investor confidence.

Fitch Ratings highlighted that these reforms have led to a reduction in distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies.

As a result, sizable inflows have returned to Nigeria’s official foreign exchange market, providing further support for the economy.

Looking ahead, the Nigerian government aims to increase its tax-to-revenue ratio and reduce the ratio of revenue allocated to debt service.

Efforts to achieve these targets have been met with challenges, including a sharp increase in local interest rates to curb inflation and manage public debt.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s economic outlook appears promising, with Fitch Ratings’ positive credit outlook reflecting growing optimism among investors and stakeholders.

President Tinubu’s administration remains committed to implementing reforms that promote sustainable growth, foster investment, and enhance the country’s economic resilience.

As Nigeria continues on its path of reform and economic transformation, stakeholders are hopeful that the positive momentum signaled by Fitch Ratings will translate into tangible benefits for the country and its people.

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Seme Border Sees 90% Decline in Trade Activity Due to CFA Fluctuations

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The Seme Border, a vital trade link between Nigeria and its neighboring countries, has reported a 90% decline in trade activity due to the volatile fluctuations in the CFA franc against the Nigerian naira.

Licensed customs agents operating at the border have voiced concerns over the adverse impact of currency instability on cross-border trade.

In a conversation with the media in Lagos, Mr. Godon Ogonnanya, the Special Adviser to the President of the National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwarders, Seme Chapter, shed light on the drastic reduction in trade activities at the border post.

Ogonnanya explained the pivotal role of the CFA franc in facilitating trade transactions, saying the border’s bustling activities were closely tied to the relative strength of the CFA against the naira.

According to Ogonnanya, trade activities thrived at the Seme Border when the CFA franc was weaker compared to the naira.

However, the fluctuating nature of the CFA exchange rate has led to uncertainty and instability in trade transactions, causing a significant downturn in business operations at the border.

“The CFA rate is the reason activities are low here. In those days when the CFA was a little bit down, activities were much there but now that the rate has gone up, it is affecting the business,” Ogonnanya explained.

The unpredictability of the CFA exchange rate has added complexity to trade operations, with importers facing challenges in budgeting and planning due to sudden shifts in currency values.

Ogonnanya highlighted the cascading effects of currency fluctuations, wherein importers incur additional costs as the value of the CFA rises against the naira during the clearance process.

Despite the significant drop in trade activity, Ogonnanya expressed optimism that the situation would gradually improve at the border.

He attributed his optimism to the recent policy interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which have led to the stabilization of the naira and restored confidence among traders.

In addition to currency-related challenges, customs agents cited discrepancies in clearance procedures between Cotonou Port and the Seme Border as a contributing factor to the decline in trade.

Importers face additional costs and complexities in clearing goods at both locations, discouraging trade activities and leading to a substantial decrease in business volume.

The decline in trade activity at the Seme Border underscores the urgent need for policy measures to address currency volatility and streamline trade processes.

As stakeholders navigate these challenges, there is a collective call for collaborative efforts between government agencies and industry players to revive cross-border trade and foster economic growth in the region.

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