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Analysts Fault Timing, But Agree Cashless Policy is Way to Go

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  • Analysts Fault Timing, But Agree Cashless Policy is Way to Go

The decision by the deposit money banks with the support of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to increase charges on cash deposits and withdrawals has drawn the ire of market watchers and analysts for coming at an inappropriate time. While the analysts believe the decision was taken with the intention of encouraging cashless transactions, they contended that the new directive was ill-timed and for mooting the idea, the banks were seeking to make excessive gains.

In collaboration with the CBN, deposit money banks under the aegies of the Bankers’ Committee last week reviewed upward charges for cash deposits and withdrawals.

Reeling out the new charges, the Director, Banking and Payment System, CBN, Mr. ‘Dipo Fatokun, noted that the decision was taken at the Bankers’ Committee at its 493rd meeting held on February and also announced that the cashless policy would be extended to the 30 remaining states of the federation.

According to the circular posted on CBN website, charges on deposits and withdrawals were reviewed such that for individuals with less than N500,000 cash deposit and withdrawals would not bear any charge. But, for cash between N500,000 and N1 million, deposit would be 1.5 per cent charge while for withdrawals two per cent of the amount.

Also, as contained in the circular, cash deposit transaction between N1 million and N5 million attracts two per cent of the amount, bank customers making withdrawals of amounts within the range are liable to three per cent charge. For cash above N5 million, deposit attracts three per cent charge while withdrawals is 7.5 per cent.

However, for corporate bodies doing deposit and withdrawals of cash less than N3 million, there would be no charge.

But firms with cash between N3 million and N10 million, depositing such would attract two per cent charge, while withdrawals would attract five cent of the amount when the policy takes off. Also, for cash between N10 million and N40 withdrawn from a corporate account holder, three per cent would be charged for deposit and 7.5 per cent for withdrawals. For cash above N40 million, deposit is five per cent and withdrawals is 10 per cent.

However, the Chief Executive Officer, Global Analytics Consult Ltd, Tope Fasua, argued that, “The idea is ill-timed.”

According to him, “Perhaps the banks are again under pressure to declare profits as alleged in some quarters. Just when the CBN seems to be about to get the FX policy right, we shouldn’t have this. I find it hard to believe that otherwise smart bankers cannot see the optics of things. The timing is wrong and people will complain.”

Saying “The CBN has again offered itself to be lampooned,” Fasua suggested that the apex bank should “stay action if possible for a few months.”

“Again, it’s as if they are coming with a vengeance now. The first time this issue came up, they were more lenient. This time, it’s no holds barred. All at once. I wish them luck, but from a layman’s perspective, I’d say they are underestimating the situation among Nigerians.”

Speaking along the same line, Director, Union Capital Markets Ltd, Egie Akpata, said while the charges introduced were not entirely new, “the timing seems curious and might suggest that the CBN is trying to achieve other aims by discouraging cash transactions.”

“It remains to be seen if these can work in other states where the available technology and operating environment might not be as favourable as what obtains in Lagos or Abuja,” Akpata added.

The Chief Executive Officer of The CFG Advisory, Adetilewa Adebajo, noted that, “These are hard and lean times with mounting pressures of NPLs and the lending to deposit rate spread is shrinking.” As a result, he pointed out, “Banks are looking inward to look at key cost drivers and passing on cost to customers in an effort to encourage the use of electronic banking channels.”

Adebajo believed, “Activity Based Cost Management solutions will help banks get a better understanding and elimination of the high cost drivers and help improve their cost to income ratios.”

“The winner here are the electronic banking platforms and in effect banks are using technology to drive down transaction costs,” he concluded.

In his own analysis, an investment analyst, Adetola Odukoya, acknowledged that, “the development is in line with the CBN’s cash-less policy.”

“I’m of the view that the charges are meant to discourage the usage of cash within the economy thereby reducing the attendant costs of cash handling. This is in addition to the boost it will give to increasing transparency and assist in reducing corrupt practices,” he submitted.

The new charges would take effect from April 1, 2017, in the existing cash-less states (Lagos, Ogun, Kano, Abia, Anambra, Rivers and the FCT).

But the policy shall be implemented with the charges taking effect on May 1, 2017, in Bauchi, Bayelsa, Delta, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Ondo, Osun and Plateau States according to the CBN.

The policy would be implemented with the charges taking effect on August 1, 2017, in Edo, Katsina, Jigawa, Niger, Oyo, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Taraba and Nasarawa State.

“The policy shall be implemented with the charges taking effect on October 1, 2017, in the following states: Borno, Benue, Ekiti, Cross River, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Yobe, Sokoto and Zamfara. The income generated from the processing fees charged above the allowable cash transaction limits shall be shared between CBN and the banks in the ratio of 40:60.

The CBN, however, clarified that, “Existing exemptions remain sustained for revenue generating accounts of the federal, state and local governments (lodgments only). Embassies, diplomatic missions, multilateral and aid donors in Nigeria are also exempted from all processing fees relating to the cashless policy implementation.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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Gold

Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Steady as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope, Red Sea Attacks Persist

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Amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts, oil prices remained relatively stable as hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas emerged, while attacks in the Red Sea continued to escalate.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw a modest rise of 27 cents to $88.67 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 30 cents to $82.93 a barrel.

The optimism stems from negotiations between Israel and Hamas with talks in Cairo aiming to broker a potential ceasefire.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis persist, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, emphasized the importance of a concrete agreement to drive market sentiment, stating that the oil market awaits a finalized deal between the conflicting parties.

Meanwhile, investor focus remains on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review, particularly in light of persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for any rate adjustments have been pushed out due to stubborn inflation, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and impacting oil demand.

Concerns over demand also weigh on sentiment, with ANZ analysts noting a decline in premiums for diesel and heating oil compared to crude oil, signaling subdued demand prospects.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and market dynamics evolve, observers closely monitor developments in both the Middle East and global economic policies for their potential impact on oil prices and market stability.

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