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Goldman Says Now’s the Time to Sell Yuan

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Goldman Sachs- Investors King
  • Yuan Pares Record Rally

The offshore yuan pared its record weekly rally as China’s central bank raised its daily fixing less than projected and some analysts reiterated their bearish views on the currency.

The exchange rate fell 0.5 percent to 6.8224 a dollar as of 11:06 a.m. in Hong Kong, after a 2.5 percent surge over the past two days. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised clients that the best times to bet against the yuan have tended to be after interventions that flushed out bearish positions, or when China concerns were off traders’ radar screens.

Yuan bears were squeezed in Hong Kong this week after interbank borrowing rates soared and Bloomberg News reported that policy makers are preparing contingency plans to support the exchange rate. The move widened the offshore yuan’s premium over the onshore rate to 1.6 percent, the most since February last year. Options traders boosted their expectations of future price swings to the highest level in 11 months.

“The offshore yuan is sinking because there is some recovery in the dollar, perhaps the unwinding of short-yuan positions has mostly been done, and it’s closing the gap with the onshore currency,” said Roy Teo, senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Singapore. The yuan is likely to weaken this year as capital outflows continue and the U.S. Federal Reserve increases interest rates, Teo said.

The People’s Bank of China raised its reference rate by 0.92 percent to 6.8668 per dollar, following a 1 percent drop in a gauge of the greenback’s strength overnight. The onshore yuan slumped 0.2 percent. Friday’s fixing was weaker than Mizuho Bank Ltd.’s prediction of 6.8447 and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.’s estimate of 6.8456.

“This is a technical move in the dollar, and the PBOC took advantage,” said Irene Cheung, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist at ANZ.

The yuan could potentially fall further than 7.3 per dollar by the year-end, Goldman’s emerging-market strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi in London, predicted in a note dated Thursday. That’s more bearish than the 7.16 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Benjamin Fuchs, chief investment officer at the $2 billion hedge fund BFAM Partners (Hong Kong), said that China’s moves to repeatedly tighten capital controls risk eroding confidence in its currency. The dollar’s advance against the yen and other currencies is also increasing competitive pressure on China to let the yuan depreciate, he said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira Notes

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,350
  • Selling Rate: N1,340

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Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

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yen

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.

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Forex

BDC Operators in Abuja Face EFCC Crackdown: Chaos Erupts in Wuse Zone 4

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BDC Operators - Investors King

The bustling streets of Wuse Zone 4 in Abuja transformed into a scene of chaos and apprehension as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) conducted a surprise crackdown on Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The operation, which unfolded on Monday, sent shockwaves through the financial district, leaving traders and residents bewildered.

Eyewitnesses recounted scenes of pandemonium as EFCC agents descended upon the area, swiftly apprehending an undisclosed number of BDC operators.

The raid, which occurred around noon, disrupted normal trading activities and prompted fear among the local populace.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, BDC operators confirmed the raid, expressing dismay at the sudden turn of events.

“EFCC just raided the market, arresting many operators. They arrested some persons seen on the street and even pursued some persons to their offices. We are still looking for N30,000 or N50,000 to bail those arrested on Friday yet they came again today,” one trader lamented.

The crackdown comes as part of the EFCC’s concerted efforts to combat illicit financial activities and restore stability to the foreign exchange market.

Last Friday, the anti-graft agency announced the arrest of 34 suspected currency speculators for alleged involvement in foreign exchange fraud, signaling a firm stance against financial malpractice.

However, the EFCC’s actions have stirred controversy, with some questioning the efficacy of such raids in addressing underlying issues affecting the Nigerian currency.

Despite these efforts, the naira opened the week on a negative trajectory against the United States dollar, signaling potential challenges ahead.

At the official market on Monday, the naira witnessed a significant depreciation, trading at N1,419 against the dollar, representing a loss of N58 or 4.3% from the previous trading session.

The decline underscores the persistent demand for the greenback amid economic uncertainties.

Currency traders at the Zone 4 market reported heightened volatility, with the dollar trading at N1,340 per dollar, marking a notable increase from the weekend rate.

Amidst the turmoil, traders like Abubakar Taura navigated the fluctuating market, capitalizing on the volatility to secure profits.

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