The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that headline inflation in Nigeria eased to 18.02% in September 2025, down from 20.12% in August 2025.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, headline inflation increased by 0.72%, while food inflation dropped by 1.57% MoM — a rare contraction in the food basket.
Key Highlights & Context
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The easing in the annual inflation rate marks a continuing disinflation trend after several months of moderation.
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A negative MoM rate for food inflation suggests relief in prices for staples, which often weigh heavily on consumer budgets.
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The moderate 0.72% MoM growth in overall inflation indicates that non-food costs (housing, energy, transport, education, etc.) may be exerting upward pressure.
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Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities may interpret these figures as room to begin loosening monetary policy, provided the trend persists.
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However, risks remain: supply chain disruptions, exchange rate volatility, and subsidy or policy reversals could reaccelerate price pressures.
What to Watch
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Core inflation trends (excluding volatile food/agriculture) to see if underlying pressures are easing.
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Central Bank’s response — whether downward pressure on interest rates begins.
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Regional/national divergence — some states may still face stronger inflation depending on logistics, insecurity, or local markets.
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Impact on consumer purchasing power, especially among lower-income households, as food price relief is critical for many.
More details coming soon — full breakdown by food, core, regional indices, and policy implications.
