Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings fell to N24.92 trillion in the first half of 2025 despite a steady rise in production volumes, according to the latest foreign trade statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Data showed that crude oil exports dropped by N3.18 trillion or 11.3 percent year-on-year from N28.10 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024.
This decline highlights the paradox of Africa’s largest oil producer, where higher output has failed to translate into stronger revenue performance.
Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that crude oil production rose by 12.7 percent to 266.9 million barrels between January and June 2025, compared to 236.7 million barrels produced in the corresponding period of 2024.
Daily output increased across all six months, with the sharpest year-on-year gain in June when production rose by more than seven million barrels.
Despite this improvement, export receipts weakened. In the first quarter of 2025, crude oil exports stood at N12.96 trillion, a fall of 16.3 percent compared to N15.49 trillion in Q1 2024.
In Q2 2025, the value fell to N11.97 trillion, representing a 5.1 percent decline from N12.61 trillion in Q2 2024.
The contribution of crude oil to Nigeria’s total exports also contracted. Crude accounted for 62.9 percent of exports in Q1 2025, down from 80.8 percent in Q1 2024.
In Q2 2025, crude’s share slipped further to 52.6 percent, compared to 71.2 percent a year earlier. Overall, crude oil’s share of total exports fell from 76.2 percent in H1 2024 to 57.5 percent in H1 2025.
In contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. NBS data revealed that non-crude oil exports more than doubled to N18.43 trillion in H1 2025, up from N8.79 trillion in the same period of 2024, representing a growth rate of 109.6 percent.
Non-oil exports alone rose by 66 percent year-on-year, increasing from N3.74 trillion to N6.21 trillion.
Nigeria’s overall trade profile expanded during the review period. Total exports rose to N43.35 trillion, a 17.5 percent increase compared to N36.89 trillion in H1 2024. Imports grew modestly by 6.9 percent to N30.71 trillion.
Consequently, the trade balance improved by 54.6 percent, rising from N8.17 trillion in H1 2024 to N12.64 trillion in H1 2025.
Industry analysts attribute the fall in crude oil export value to weaker global prices, increased domestic utilisation, and the Federal Government’s crude supply arrangement with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
In the first four months of 2025, the government sold crude oil worth N219.38 billion to the refinery under a naira-for-crude deal.
The development raises concerns about the 2025 budget framework, which had been benchmarked at $75 per barrel. With crude prices falling below projections earlier in the year, fiscal revenue could come under pressure even as the government seeks to finance expenditure and manage debt obligations.
While the NUPRC has reported a 50.2 percent reduction in crude oil losses in the first seven months of 2025, bringing theft and vandalism to their lowest levels in over a decade, the revenue outlook remains uncertain.
The decline in crude export earnings despite higher production underlines the volatility facing Nigeria’s external revenues and the urgent need to diversify trade inflows.
