Nigeria’s importation of refined petroleum products has dropped significantly as Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion refinery continues to increase production capacity in 2025.
For decades, Africa’s top crude producer remained heavily dependent on foreign refiners for petrol and diesel, but that dynamic is now changing as local refining gains traction.
According to data released by energy consultancy CITAC, Nigeria imported 3.1 million tons of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025.
This represents a substantial decline from previous years, where quarterly import volumes averaged significantly higher.
In contrast, South Africa has now overtaken Nigeria as the continent’s largest fuel importer, recording 4.2 million tons over the same period.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone of Lagos, has a designed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it the largest single-train refinery globally.
Commissioned for full-scale operations in 2024 after several delays, the refinery is gradually refining more domestic crude and cutting back Nigeria’s historical reliance on expensive imported fuel.
This development aligns with Nigeria’s broader energy strategy to improve self-sufficiency, reduce pressure on foreign reserves and eliminate the long-standing inefficiencies associated with importing petrol into a crude-rich nation.
It also follows President Bola Tinubu’s 2023 decision to remove petrol subsidies and liberalise the foreign exchange market — reforms that have paved the way for more market-driven pricing and investment in local refining capacity.
In 2024 alone, Nigeria reportedly saved $20 billion from the removal of petrol subsidies, which were previously used to offset the high cost of imported fuel. These funds have supported higher state allocations and infrastructure investment while also improving the country’s fiscal position.
Analysts say the Dangote Refinery’s output has contributed to improved energy security, better control of domestic pricing dynamics, and strengthened trade balances. With net external reserves reportedly rising from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by the end of 2024, the country is beginning to see the benefits of reduced import exposure and a more diversified energy supply chain.
Beyond fuel import reduction, the refinery positions Nigeria for potential export of refined products to neighbouring West African markets.
The plant is designed to meet all of Nigeria’s petrol demand and export surplus diesel, aviation fuel, and polypropylene to regional and global markets.
While the country has made meaningful strides, experts note that full self-sufficiency will depend on operational consistency, regulatory stability, and the resolution of distribution bottlenecks.
Nigeria’s downstream infrastructure, including pipelines, depots and logistics channels, remains a critical component in determining how efficiently refined products can reach end users across the nation.
The refinery’s emergence also underscores the growing gap in sub-Saharan Africa’s refining landscape. Countries like South Africa, which once had robust refining capabilities, are now increasingly reliant on imported fuel.
Nearly half of South Africa’s refining capacity has been offline since 2020 due to plant closures, safety incidents and chronic underinvestment. Its largest refinery, Sapref — previously operated by Shell and BP — was idled in 2022 and has not resumed operations despite a 2023 government acquisition.
As South Africa’s fuel deficit widens, global commodity traders including Glencore, Vitol, and Gunvor have increased their activities in the region, capitalising on growing demand. CITAC projects that South Africa will import approximately 15.5 million tons of refined products in 2025 — more than double Nigeria’s projected imports of 6.4 million tons.
While Nigeria continues to stabilise domestic supply through the Dangote Refinery, industry observers caution that sustaining gains will require continuous support for local refining and regulatory clarity to encourage private sector participation.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is expected to release additional guidelines on product pricing and supply chain reforms to ensure efficient market operations.
With the Dangote Refinery already effecting price reductions on multiple occasions in 2025, stakeholders are optimistic that competitive pricing and local availability could eventually bring down fuel prices for consumers and reduce inflationary pressure on transport and logistics sectors.
The Nigerian government has also indicated interest in reviving state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). However, previous turnaround efforts have yielded limited results, and attention remains focused on Dangote’s facility as the flagship of Nigeria’s refining future.
As Africa’s energy dynamics evolve, Nigeria’s declining fuel imports signal a shift in regional power balance — one that not only reduces dependency but also strengthens the country’s economic resilience and trade position in the years ahead.
