Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 24.2 percent in March 2025, the first increase since the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased its inflation data in January.
The uptick from 23.2 percent in February reflects both internal cost pressures and the looming impact of external shocks.
Data released by the statistics agency on Tuesday showed a 1.1 percent month-on-month rise in consumer prices.
The development comes ahead of the anticipated fallout from the global trade war triggered by new tariff measures introduced by the United States.
Oil prices, Nigeria’s primary export revenue source, have declined sharply following the announcement of global tariffs by US President Donald Trump on April 2.
While Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmarked crude oil price at $75 per barrel, Brent crude oil is now trading at around $65 per barrel.
Also, the Nigerian naira has lost 4.2 percent against the US dollar since the start of April. To manage volatility, the Central Bank of Nigeria has injected over $650 million into the foreign exchange market this month alone, according to investment firm AIICO Capital.
These developments are expected to influence monetary policy discussions when the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee convenes on May 19 and 20.
The committee may opt to retain the benchmark interest rate at 27.5 percent for a second consecutive meeting as inflationary risks persist and uncertainty clouds the economic outlook.
Core inflation rose to 24.4 percent in March from 23 percent in February, revealing broader price pressures beyond food.
However, annual food inflation eased slightly to 21.8 percent from 23.5 percent a month earlier. The seasonal planting period, which typically results in leaner food supplies, may reverse that trend in the coming weeks.
According to Bloomberg Africa economist Yvonne Mhango, naira depreciation will likely sustain inflation pressures through the next two quarters.
She noted that the central bank is expected to maintain a cautious stance in May as it waits for a clearer inflation trend post-rebasing.
