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Oil Prices Dip 1% to Two-Week Low as Middle East Tensions Ease

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Oil prices fell to a two-week low on Tuesday as easing tensions in the Middle East and weakening economic indicators from China influenced global crude values.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, decreased by 46 cents to settle at $77.20 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which will soon transition from the front-month contract, fell 33 cents to end at $74.04.

The more actively traded WTI futures for October dropped by 49 cents to $73.17 per barrel.

The decline comes amid a period of relative calm in the Middle East, particularly with the recent acceptance of a proposal aimed at addressing disagreements over a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

This has contributed to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that had previously inflated oil prices.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s diplomatic efforts in Egypt have been pivotal in pushing for progress on a ceasefire and the release of hostages. Although significant differences remain to be resolved in ongoing negotiations, the market has reacted positively to the potential stabilization of the region.

However, the market remains cautious as conflicts between Israel and Hamas continue, and traders are closely monitoring developments for any sudden changes that could impact supply dynamics.

According to Svetlana Tretyakova, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, “The markets will remain highly sensitive to any developments in the region.”

Adding to the pressure on oil prices are economic signals from China. The world’s second-largest economy has shown signs of significant slowdown, with new home prices falling at their fastest rate in nine years, and industrial output, export, and investment growth all dipping.

This economic weakness has raised concerns about reduced fuel demand, further weighing on crude oil prices.

In the United States, worries about fuel demand have also been exacerbated by a decline in refining profit margins.

Heating oil futures have hit their lowest levels since May 2023, and gasoline futures have dropped to their lowest point since February 2024.

Analysts from Gelber and Associates noted that refinery companies, including PBF Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon, have responded to these market pressures by cutting their capacity rates.

On the inventory front, U.S. oil storage data will be closely watched, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) set to release figures this week.

Analysts anticipate a withdrawal of around 2.7 million barrels of crude oil from storage for the week ending August 16, marking the seventh decline in U.S. crude stocks over the past eight weeks.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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Again NNPC Raises Petrol Price to N897/litre

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Petrol - Investors King

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has once again increased the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N855 per litre on Tuesday to N897 on Wednesday.

The increase was after Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of Dangote Refinery, announced the commencement of petrol production at its refinery.

The continuous increase in pump prices has raised concerns among Nigerians despite the initial excitement from the refinery announcement.

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the 650,000 barrels per day refinery will supply 25 million litres of petrol to the Nigerian market daily this September.

This, NMDPRA said will increase to 30 million litres per day in October.

However, the promise of increased fuel supply has not yet eased the situation on the ground.

Tunde Ayeni, a commercial bus driver at an NNPC station in Ikoyi, said “I have been in the queue since 6 a.m. waiting for them to start selling, but we just realised that the pump price has been changed to N897. This is terrible, and yet they still haven’t started selling the product.”

The price hike comes as NNPC continues to struggle with sustaining regular fuel supply.

On Sunday, the company warned that its ability to maintain steady distribution across the country was under threat due to financial strain.

NNPC cited rising supply costs as the cause of its difficulties in keeping up with demand.

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