Nigeria’s crude oil production fell further in February to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) despite efforts to sustain the recent increase recorded.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s daily crude oil output declined by 73,691 bpd compared to the 1.54 million bpd recorded in January.
This represents a setback for Africa’s largest oil producer, which had set an ambitious budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd.
The dip in production comes amid struggling global oil prices, which have remained below Nigeria’s budgetary benchmark of $75 per barrel.
In February, the country produced approximately 41 million barrels of crude oil worth $3 billion in revenue at an average price of $74 per barrel.
However, this represents a decline from the 47.7 million barrels recorded in January and reflects continued volatility in the sector.
Despite efforts to ramp up output, key oil terminals across the country reported lower production figures. The Forcados terminal, which recorded the highest output, produced 7.75 million barrels in February, down from 8.86 million in January.
The Bonny terminal followed with 6.3 million barrels, compared to 8.1 million barrels the previous month.
Other terminals, including Qua Iboe, Escravos, and Obudu, also reported declines, with total national output sliding below the expected threshold.
The House of Representatives has expressed concern over the persistent decline in oil production, warning that Nigeria’s revenue projections could be significantly impacted if urgent measures are not taken to address the challenges facing the sector.
Lawmakers have called on the Presidency to prioritize the rehabilitation of the country’s aging pipeline network, which has been plagued by vandalism and operational inefficiencies.
Speaking on the matter, Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Sustainable Development Goals, Mohammed Shehu, explained that Nigeria’s oil and gas sector remains the backbone of the economy and contributes approximately 90% of export revenues and around 9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
“The integrity of our oil transportation network is critical to sustaining production levels. Between 2018 and 2023, over 7,000 incidents of pipeline vandalism were recorded, leading to crude oil losses valued at over $12.74 million,” Shehu stated.
In October 2024, crude supply to Shell’s Forcados terminal was slashed by 50% following acts of sabotage, delaying shipments and raising concerns over potential force majeure declarations.
The House has now mandated an ad hoc committee to assess existing security and maintenance strategies for Nigeria’s petroleum infrastructure.
While the Federal Government has continued its push for increased production, structural challenges persist. Industry experts have warned that without decisive action to address pipeline security, maintenance, and investment in new infrastructure, the country’s production capacity may continue to decline.
With oil prices fluctuating and production struggling to meet expectations, concerns are growing over Nigeria’s ability to finance its fiscal obligations.
The 2025 budget heavily relies on oil revenue, with a capital allocation of ₦1.06 trillion set aside for national projects.
Analysts warn that persistent shortfalls in production could widen the fiscal deficit and increase borrowing pressures on the government.
