President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front are contemplating strategic withdrawals of their candidates to prevent the far-right National Rally from gaining power.
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secured a surprising 33.2% of the vote, according to interior ministry figures, outpacing both the New Popular Front’s 28% and Macron’s coalition, which garnered 20.8%.
This result has sent shockwaves through the French political landscape, heightening fears of a far-right ascendance.
“The lesson of today is that the far right is at the gates of power,” French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told supporters on Sunday night. “Our objective is clear: to prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority.”
A decisive victory in the second round would enable National Rally President Jordan Bardella to claim the premiership, granting the party significant legislative power.
Traditionally, France’s mainstream parties have united to keep the far right out of government.
The financial markets responded with cautious optimism after the National Rally’s smaller-than-expected margin of victory.
Futures on France’s CAC 40 index surged almost 3% at the opening bell, while the euro gained 0.5%, marking its largest intraday increase in over two weeks.
However, the political uncertainty has led to fluctuating yields on French bonds, reflecting investor unease.
In over half of the 577 constituencies, three candidates qualified for the runoffs. In these cases, the third-placed candidate can withdraw to bolster the chances of another mainstream party defeating the National Rally.
The deadline for such withdrawals is 6 p.m. on Tuesday, leaving party leaders in a frantic race to form alliances.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the New Popular Front, an alliance of left-wing parties, announced his intention to encourage third-placed candidates from his group to withdraw in favor of a united front against the far right.
President Macron echoed this sentiment, calling for a “broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round.”
However, the situation is complicated. Mélenchon’s France Unbowed has proposed policies that conflict with European Union budget rules, potentially unsettling investors.
This has made it unclear whether Macron’s Renaissance party will withdraw in constituencies where the far left would benefit.
In a gesture toward building alliances with the left, Prime Minister Attal announced the suspension of an unpopular unemployment insurance reform on Sunday evening.
The government had argued that the changes would incentivize employment, but opposition parties criticized the timing, given rising joblessness.
Although Macron’s presidency itself is not at risk — and he has stated he has no plans to resign — the election results indicate he will either have to share governing responsibilities with the National Rally or navigate a gridlocked parliament.
The National Rally opposes many of Macron’s key initiatives, including migration policy, pension reform, and EU integration.
Market analysts suggest that while investors prefer gridlock over a far-right government, any credible alliances to block Le Pen from absolute power could restore some stability to French markets.
“A hung parliament could make it hard to get anything done in France, which is exactly what the markets would like,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
As the political landscape evolves rapidly, the coming days will be crucial in determining France’s legislative future and the broader implications for European politics.
The nation watches closely as Macron and Mélenchon’s parties deliberate their next moves to counter the far-right surge.
