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Nigeria to Borrow Additional N7.24 Trillion in 2024 for Economic Revival Plan

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The Nigerian government announced plans to borrow an additional N7.24 trillion in 2024 to finance an ambitious intervention plan aimed at reviving the nation’s economy.

This disclosure was made by Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, during the presentation of the Accelerated Stabilisation and Advancement Plan (ASAP).

The ASAP is designed to tackle critical challenges affecting Nigeria’s reform initiatives and to stimulate development across various sectors.

According to the minister, the 2024 approved budget includes a deficit of N9.18 trillion, which will be partially financed by N7.83 trillion in new borrowings.

However, to fully fund the intervention, the government intends to borrow an additional N7.24 trillion, bringing the total borrowing for the year to N16.42 trillion.

Nigeria’s Debt Management Office reported that the country’s total public debt stood at N97 trillion as of December 2023. With the new borrowings, this figure is projected to rise to N113.4 trillion.

The government acknowledged that the added debt could negatively impact leverage metrics if revenue shortfalls persist, as anticipated.

In the first two months of 2024, the government’s retained revenue was approximately 60% of the target, mainly due to lower crude oil production volumes, which were at 74.5% of the budget projection.

The government estimates that if these shortfalls continue, total revenue for the year will likely not exceed N15.8 trillion.

Also, if tax waivers equivalent to 0.25% of GDP are issued to support the economic intervention, budgeted revenue will decrease by 3%. Consequently, 2024 borrowing and debt service costs are expected to increase by 79% and 7%, respectively.

The ASAP intervention plan allocates substantial funding to crucial sectors such as agriculture, energy, business support, health, and social welfare, with an estimated cost ranging from N6.6 trillion to N5 trillion.

Specific allocations include N498 billion to N373.5 billion for agricultural and food security, N3.25 trillion to N2.44 trillion for energy, N1.10 trillion to N825 billion for health and social welfare, and N1.80 trillion to N1.35 trillion for business support.

These interventions aim to improve the affordability of essential medicines, clear outstanding power subsidies and GasCo debt, and support MSMEs, manufacturers, entrepreneurs, and artisans.

The government emphasized that these measures are necessary to sustain the bold reforms already undertaken and that intervention spending should be prioritized to mitigate the impact on leverage metrics.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 47.6% if all intervention spending is funded through additional borrowing.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s debt rose to 46% of GDP at the end of 2023, driven by naira depreciation.

The IMF noted that Nigeria had one of the lowest revenue takes globally at 9.4% of GDP in 2023.

In a recent assessment, the IMF warned that Nigeria’s risk of sovereign stress is moderate due to the long maturity structure of debt and moderate gross financing needs.

However, it flagged risks from global uncertainty, exchange rate depreciation, and weak revenue mobilization.

During the budget presentation, Edun stressed the importance of reducing reliance on borrowings and focusing more on promoting domestic and foreign investment, as well as the privatization of critical government assets.

At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in April, Edun announced that Nigeria had qualified for a $2.25 billion loan from the World Bank at a one percent interest rate, recognizing the efforts to stabilize and grow the Nigerian economy.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Moniepoint Strengthens Efforts to Broaden Financial Access Through Collaborative Initiatives

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Africa’s fastest growing financial institution according to the Financial Times, Moniepoint Inc has underscored the importance of a collaborative and holistic stakeholder approach in advancing the future of financial and economic inclusion in Nigeria.

In a recent high-level policy dialogue between the Nigerian government and private sector stakeholders held in Washington DC, Moniepoint Inc’s Group CEO and Co-Founder, Tosin Eniolorunda emphasized the importance of public-private collaborations in addressing trust issues that have slowed down the adoption of innovative fintech solutions for economic and financial inclusion.

“Moniepoint has long championed the importance of financial inclusion and financial happiness. Building trust with the public and government, improving business and consumer access to the financial system are critical issues that are aligned to our philosophy. As testament to our commitment, we recently launched a landmark report investigating Nigeria’s informal economy, highlighting opportunities to widen financial inclusion to historically underserved communities. The outputs from this strategic gathering will go a long way in bolstering Nigeria’s economy even as closer linkages are formed from public-private collaboration which will be a huge boost to the overall development and competitiveness of the larger financial services industry,“ Eniolorunda said.

The event, which brought together government officials, regulators, law enforcement agencies, and fintech industry leaders at George Washington University, aimed to leverage innovative approaches to drive a sustainable and inclusive financial system in Nigeria.

Vice President Kashim Shettima, addressing the gathering via video conference, highlighted the urgent need for financial innovation to drive Nigeria’s economic and financial inclusion agenda. This aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration’s commitment to bringing over 30 million unbanked Nigerians into the formal financial sector as part of the Renewed Hope Agenda.

“We must develop a sustainable collaboration approach that will facilitate the adoption of inclusive payment to achieve our objective of economic and financial inclusion,” Vice President Shettima stated.

The dialogue focused on addressing critical challenges in Nigeria’s fintech ecosystem, including regulatory oversight, security concerns, and trust issues that have hindered the widespread adoption of innovative financial solutions. Participants explored strategies to enhance interagency collaboration and strengthen the overall effectiveness of the financial services sector.

Philip Ikeazor, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria responsible for Financial System Stability, emphasized the need for ongoing collaboration among all stakeholders to meet the goals of the Aso Accord on Economic and Financial Inclusion.

Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi, Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), advocated for “a digital-first approach and the fusion of digital literacy with financial literacy to address trust issues affecting the inclusive payment ecosystem.”

Dr. Nurudeen Zauro, Technical Advisor to the President on Economic and Financial Inclusion, explained that the gathering aims to evolve into a mechanism providing relevant information to the Office of the Vice President, facilitating effective decision-making for economic and financial inclusion.

The event resulted in various recommendations covering rules, infrastructure, and coordination, with a focus on implementable actions and clear accountabilities. As discussions continue, Moniepoint remains dedicated to leveraging its expertise and technology to support the government’s financial inclusion goals and create a more financially inclusive society for all Nigerians.

Other notable speakers included Inspector General of Police Mr. Kayode Egbetokun, Executive Director of the Center for Curriculum Development and Learning (CCDL) at George Washington University Professor Pape Cisse, Assistant Vice President at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Mr. Reginald Emordi, Regional Director for Africa at the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) Mr. Lars Benson, and United States Congresswoman representing Florida’s 20th congressional district, The Honorable Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Prof Olayinka David-West from the Lagos Business School among others.

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CBN Rate Hikes Raise Borrowing Costs for Banks Seeking FX

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has implemented a significant adjustment to its borrowing rates.

The move, which follows the CBN’s recent decision to adjust the asymmetric corridor around the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing for banks seeking foreign exchange (FX).

This decision comes amid heightened concerns over the Naira’s performance and inflation rates.

According to Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director/CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, the adjustment means that banks now face borrowing costs of nearly 32% from the CBN, a sharp increase from the previous rate of approximately 26%.

This change in borrowing costs is intended to deter banks from relying on the CBN for FX purchases, thereby reducing pressure on the Naira.

Data reveals that in the first five days of July 2024, banks borrowed an unprecedented N5.38 trillion from the CBN, marking a record high.

The increased borrowing costs are expected to reduce this practice, thereby alleviating some of the strain on the Naira.

Despite these efforts, the Naira has continued to struggle. On Tuesday, the Naira depreciated by 3.13% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling to N1,548.76.

This decline is attributed to reduced dollar supply and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

The black market saw an even sharper drop, with the Naira falling to 1,687 per dollar, reflecting broader concerns about currency stability.

Rewane highlighted that the recent rate hikes are part of a broader strategy by the CBN to manage inflation and stabilize the Naira.

“The increase in borrowing costs is a necessary step to address the carry trade practices where banks use cheap funds from the CBN to buy FX and sell it at higher rates,” he explained.

The CBN’s decision to raise borrowing costs comes amid a backdrop of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.

Over the past three years, the CBN has raised interest rates 12 times, with recent adjustments aimed at managing liquidity and curbing inflation.

As of June 2024, Nigeria’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 34.19%, up from 33.95% in May.

The central bank’s policy changes are expected to have mixed effects.

Analysts at FBNQuest anticipate that banks will continue to benefit from the high-interest rate environment, potentially leading to a shift of assets from equities to fixed-income securities as investors seek higher yields.

The CBN remains committed to navigating Nigeria through these challenging economic conditions.

By adjusting borrowing costs and implementing tighter monetary policies, the central bank aims to strike a balance between managing inflation, stabilizing the Naira, and supporting overall economic growth.

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Finance

Senate Passes Bill for 70% Windfall Levy on Banks’ Forex Gains

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Nigerian Senate has approved an amendment to the Finance Act of 2023, increasing the windfall levy on banks’ foreign exchange gains from 50% to 70%.

The bill was passed during a plenary session on Tuesday after a thorough review by the Finance Committee.

The Senate’s decision aims to address the significant profits banks have accrued due to recent foreign exchange policy shifts.

This windfall is viewed as a product of government intervention rather than the banks’ strategic efforts, prompting the call for redistribution.

The additional revenue from this levy is expected to contribute to financing the N6.2 trillion Appropriation Amendment Bill.

This funding will support various government projects and initiatives, ensuring that the windfall benefits are reinvested into the economy.

The Senate also approved amendments to the payment timeline, setting the levy to take effect from the start of the new foreign exchange regime through 2025, avoiding retrospective application from January 2024.

Also, the Upper Chamber removed the proposed jail term for principal officers of defaulting banks.

Instead, banks that fail to remit the levy will incur a penalty of 10% per annum on the withheld amount, alongside interest at the prevailing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Minimum Rediscount Rate.

This legislative move aligns with President Tinubu’s broader fiscal strategy, which aims to optimize national revenue through independent sources.

The amendment underscores the Senate’s commitment to leveraging bank profits for national development, especially amid economic challenges.

While some industry stakeholders express concerns about the impact on banking operations, others see this as a necessary step towards equitable wealth distribution and economic stability.

The bill’s passage is anticipated to have significant implications for both the financial sector and the broader economy.

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