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Goldman Sachs Predicts Surge in Equity Market with Influx of Passive Cash in July

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk has projected a significant surge in the equity market in early July, driven by a substantial influx of passive cash allocations.

This anticipated capital flow is expected to fuel a continuing rally through the early summer, according to Scott Rubner, Managing Director and tactical specialist in Goldman’s global markets division.

“New quarter (Q3), new half year (2H), this is when a wall of money comes into the equity market quickly,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

He highlighted the beginning of the third quarter and the second half of the year as key periods when passive investment funds typically pour into the stock market.

In addition to the influx of passive cash, Rubner said share prices are likely to benefit from strong seasonal trends and increasing engagement from retail investors.

“I am seeing a re-emergence in retail traders during the summer; they tend to come around in July,” he noted.

Historically, the first 15 days of July have been the best two-week trading period of the year for equities since 1928.

According to Rubner, the S&P 500 Index has been positive for nine consecutive Julys, with an average return of 3.7%.

The Nasdaq 100 Index has an even more impressive record, posting gains in 16 straight Julys, with an average return of 4.6%.

Rubner’s calculations suggest that roughly nine basis points of new capital are typically invested in equities every July.

Based on the $29 trillion in passive assets available for investment this year, this would translate to an influx of approximately $26 billion.

“The bar for being short equities right now is very high given these upcoming flows and random market dynamics,” Rubner wrote, underscoring the strength of the anticipated capital inflow and its potential impact on the market.

The S&P 500 Index moved back above 5,300 on Wednesday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains and approaching a new intraday high.

The rally has been driven by strong performances from the world’s largest technology companies.

Nvidia Corp. set another record and now holds the second-largest weighting in the S&P 500 at 6.6%, surpassing Apple Inc. at 6.4% and trailing only Microsoft Corp. at 7%.

The resurgence of retail investors is another factor contributing to the bullish outlook.

Retail traders, who typically become more active during the summer months, are expected to play a significant role in the upcoming rally.

This re-engagement of individual investors could further amplify market gains as they seek to capitalize on the positive momentum.

The combination of passive cash inflows, favorable seasonal trends, and heightened retail investor activity sets the stage for a robust equity market performance in July.

As market dynamics align with historical patterns and the anticipated surge in capital, investors are poised to benefit from the positive trends predicted by Goldman Sachs.

With the financial landscape evolving, the strategic insights provided by Goldman Sachs offer valuable guidance for investors navigating the market.

As the third quarter begins and the second half of the year unfolds, the projected influx of passive cash could indeed drive a significant rally, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the equity market.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nvidia Stock Falls 13%, Biggest Three-Day Drop Ever Erases $430 Billion

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Nvidia Corp. shares entered correction territory on Monday, the biggest three-day value loss for any company in history.

The AI-focused chipmaker experienced a 6.7% drop, its largest one-day percentage decrease since April.

This marks the third consecutive negative session for Nvidia, culminating in a total three-day loss of approximately $430 billion from its market capitalization.

The stock’s 13% decline over the period surpasses the 10% threshold that typically defines a correction.

This dramatic drop has not only affected Nvidia but also weighed heavily on the semiconductor sector, with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index falling 3% on Monday.

Other notable declines included Broadcom Inc. with a 4% drop, Qualcomm Inc. down 5.5%, and ARM Holdings Plc slipping by 5.8%.

US-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. also shed 3.5%.

This significant market shift has reduced Nvidia’s valuation below the $3 trillion threshold, positioning it behind both Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc. in terms of market size.

Nvidia briefly held the title of the world’s largest stock last week before this downturn.

“In the near-term, it is plausible that investors begin suffering from AI-fatigue or become more broadly concerned about index concentration,” said Neville Javeri, portfolio manager and head of the Empiric LT Equity team at Allspring Global Investments.

Despite the recent slump, Nvidia remains one of the top performers of the year, with shares up nearly 140% year-to-date, making it the second-best performer among S&P 500 Index components, just behind Super Micro Computer Inc., another favored AI stock.

Earlier in the year, Nvidia faced a similar drawdown of about 20% but quickly rebounded to achieve all-time highs. The current downturn, however, has amplified concerns about the company’s valuation.

Nvidia trades at 21 times its estimated sales over the next 12 months, making it the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 by this measure.

Nevertheless, it continues to be well-regarded on Wall Street, with nearly 90% of analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommending a buy and an average price target suggesting about a 12% upside from current levels.

“The momentum in Nvidia and AI stocks in general has been staggering,” said Charlie Ashley, portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds. “In terms of investing, I would not be a contrarian right now.”

Nvidia’s rapid ascent, driven by high demand for its AI processing chips, has been a double-edged sword, fueling both optimism and apprehension among investors.

The stock’s recent performance underscores the volatile nature of the tech market and the ongoing debate about the sustainability of its high valuations amidst economic uncertainties.

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Nigerian Equities Market Sheds N103 Billion in Three-Day Trading of Last Week

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In a brief yet impactful trading week marked by Eid-el-Kabir celebrations, Nigeria’s equities market closed in the red as the market shed a total of N103 billion in market capitalization.

Investors navigated through a condensed trading schedule that spanned just three days, with profit-taking activities predominantly affecting key sectors despite selective bargain hunting in others.

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) All-Share Index (ASI) closed the week at 99,743.05 points, reflecting a decline from the previous week’s high of 99,925.29 points.

Similarly, market capitalization dipped to N56.423 trillion, down from N56.526 trillion recorded in the preceding trading period.

Throughout the truncated trading sessions, the market experienced two days of negative closes, contrasting with one day of flat performance.

Analysts attributed the decline primarily to profit-taking activities across critical sectors such as insurance and banking, which overshadowed gains observed in oil & gas, consumer goods, and industrial stocks.

The NGX Oil & Gas Index saw a marginal decrease of 0.21 percent, while the NGX Banking Index dipped by 0.04 percent.

The NGX Insurance Index recorded the steepest decline, falling by 1.41 percent during the week.

On the other hand, the NGX Consumer Goods Index rose by 0.29 percent, and the NGX Industrial Index saw a modest increase of 0.10 percent.

Despite the downturn in market performance for the week, the year-to-date (YtD) return moderated to 33.39 percent, indicating a resilient overall performance in 2024.

Month-to-date (MtD), the market managed a slight uptick of 0.43 percent, underscoring the mixed sentiment and cautious trading observed among investors.

Market analysts and stakeholders emphasized the impact of profit-taking in driving the market’s decline and suggested that the upcoming weeks could see renewed activity depending on economic indicators and investor sentiment.

As Nigeria’s equities market continues to navigate various economic dynamics, stakeholders remain optimistic about potential recovery and growth opportunities amid evolving market conditions.

The holiday-shortened trading week underscored the volatility and resilience of Nigeria’s equities market, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors in the coming sessions.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

FBN Holdings, Fidelity Bank Lead Trades as Nigerian Stock Market Closes Flat

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For the first time in weeks, Nigeria’s equities market closed flat on Thursday as investors adopted a cautious approach, taking a “wait-and-see” stance.

Despite active trading in major stocks such as FBN Holdings, Fidelity Bank, Transcorp, Access Holdings, and AIICO, the market showed no significant movement.

On Thursday, investors exchanged 1,299,961,984 shares worth N25.326 billion in 8,364 deals on the Exchange.

However, the trading activity did not translate into a market shift.

The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalisation, which stood at 99,842.19 points and N56.478 trillion on the preceding trading day, closed Thursday at 99,842.94 points and N56.479 trillion, respectively.

This static closure occurred despite notable performances from stocks like Champion Breweries and Chams, which rallied.

Conversely, Transcorp Hotels Plc, NEM Insurance, and Fidelity Bank topped the list of laggards.

“We anticipate a mixed trading session with potential buy-side pressure in key names that could steer the market to a green close,” stated analysts from Lagos-based Vetiva Research in their post-trading note. “Investors are expected to monitor movements in high-performing stocks as well.”

Related developments highlighted the challenges facing investors. Rising diesel prices have surged by 66%, hitting the Northeast hardest.

The Naira remains weak at the official market despite rising external reserves, and prime office tenants face dilemmas with dollar-rents surging 200% in Naira value.

The flat close on Thursday underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing among investors in Nigeria’s equities market.

The market’s performance continues to reflect broader economic uncertainties and investor strategies focusing on stability and risk management.

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