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Renewed Hope: the 2024 FGN Budget – Coronation Economic Note

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The 2024 FGN Budget, titled “Budget of Renewed Hope,” was signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on 02 January’24. There were a few revisions made.

The aggregate expenditure is estimated at N28.7trn which is 11.9% or N1.2trn higher than the initially proposed N27.5trn. This figure is 15.9% higher than the 2023 FGN budget of N24.82trn.

Notably, the allocation to capital expenditure in the approved 2024 budget rose by 13.8% to N9.9trn, accounting for 34.5% of the total expenditure, compared to the initial proposed figure of N8.7trn. The increased capital spending aligns with the FGN’s intent to reduce the country’s infrastructure deficit gap. We note that the 2024 budget estimates point towards a fiscal deficit of N9.1trn (approximately 3.88% of the 2024 estimated nominal GDP), which is considerably lower than N13.8trn estimated in the 2023 FGN budget.

The projected fiscal expenditure also includes an increase in statutory transfer to N1.7trn from the initial N1.3trn in the proposed budget However, non-debt recurrent expenditure declined by – 15.5% to N8.7trn from the initially proposed N10.2trn. However, the debt service estimate remained unchanged at N8.2trn.

Furthermore, there was a slight modification in the assumptions underlying the budget. The exchange rate was revised upward to N800/USD from N750/USD. However, other assumptions remained unchanged (oil price benchmark of USD77.9/b, oil production of 1.78mbpd, inflation rate of 21.4%, and GDP growth rate of 3.76% y/y).

There were notable budgetary reallocations, for example, the National Judicial Council received a substantial increase by +107% from N165bn to N341.6bn. Similarly, the allocation to the National Assembly increased by 74.23% to N344.8bn from N197.9bn.

This marks the highest allocation to the National Assembly. Other budgetary reallocations include Niger-Delta Development Commission: N338.9bn (previously N324.8bn), Universal Basic Education Commission: N263billion (previously N251.4bn), Public Complaints Commission: N14.4bn (previously N13.6bn), Northeast Development Commission: N131.8bn (previously N126.9bn), Basic Healthcare Provision Fund: N131.5bn (previously N125.7bn) National Agency for Science and Engineering
Infrastructure: N131.5bn (previously N125.7bn).

The estimated revenue to fund the 2024 budget was revised upward to N19.6trn, 78.2% higher than the 2023 provision of N11trn. The breakdown of this revenue estimate shows that N9.2trn
(46.9%) is expected from oil-related sources while the balance of N10.4trn (53.1%) is expected
from non-oil sources.

Overall, the revenue projections point towards expectations of improved revenue inflow, on the back of the removal of PMS subsidy, fx depreciation following the fx liberalization policy, and increased collection of non-oil taxes.

In our view, achieving the proposed revenue target in 2024 would require deliberate efforts towards tackling the challenges in the oil sector. Average oil production from January – November ‘23 was 1.46mbpd. This is below the FGN 2023 oil production target of 1.72mbpd. In 2024, we expect oil production to range between 1.4 -1.6mbpd, still below the FGN’s 2024 oil production target of 1.78mbpd.

On the other hand, it is worth highlighting that actual non-oil revenue has exceeded FGN’s target by an average of 9.4% since FY2021. Additionally, as at end-September ’23, we note an overperformance of non-oil revenue (N2.5trn exceeding the prorated target of N1.8trn). We expect the FGN to increase its tax mobilization initiatives and further enhance independent revenue generation and collection efforts, especially from government-owned enterprises (GOEs). The proposed fiscal deficit of N9.1trn is expected to be financed by new borrowings totaling c.N7.8trn (domestic: c.N6.0trn, external: c.N1.7trn). Other sources of deficit financing include privatization proceeds of c.N298.4bn and drawdowns on bilateral/multilateral projects/programs of c.N941.1bn.

Regarding ways and means advances from the CBN, we note the senate’s approval to securitize c.N7.3trn of the ways and means advances to a 40-year bond at 5% interest. In early 2023, N23trn was securitized to a 40-year bond at 9% interest. This brings the total amount of securitized ways and means advances to N30.3trn. Although securitization would reduce the cost of debt service and enhance debt transparency, it will concurrently elevate the total public debt stock to approximately N95.2trn. This represents 47.7% of the 2022 nominal GDP, surpassing the debt management office’s (DMO) debt-toGDP ratio target of 40% set for the period of 2020-2023. However, we understand that there are plans to revise Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio target.

The revenue targets are laudable and indeed optimistic. However, we must emphasize that without a significant acceleration of revenue-based fiscal consolidation efforts, the FGN may fall short of meeting its revenue targets. A scenario that could potentially have negative implications for debt sustainability. However, it is important to recognize that challenges present opportunities for strategic adjustment and enhanced fiscal policies. Encouraging proactive measures and innovative strategies to boost revenue can position the FGN for greater fiscal resilience and contribute to achieving its financial goals for sustainable development.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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