Stock Market

India Surpasses Hong Kong in Market Cap Race, Emerging as Global Investment Magnet

Published

4 months ago

January 23, 2024

India’s stock market capitalization has overtaken Hong Kong’s for the first time as the South Asian nation’s growth prospects and policy reforms make it an investor darling while global capital pours out of China.

The combined value of shares listed on Indian exchanges reached $4.33 trillion as of Monday’s close, versus $4.29 trillion for Hong Kong, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That makes India the fourth-biggest equity market globally. Its value crossed $4 trillion for the first time on Dec. 5, with about half of that coming in the past four years.

Equities in India have been booming, thanks to a rapidly growing retail investor base and strong corporate earnings. The world’s most populous country has positioned itself as an alternative to China, attracting fresh capital from global investors and companies alike, thanks to its stable political setup and a consumption-driven economy that remains among the fastest-growing of major nations.

The relentless rally in Indian stocks has coincided with a historic slump in Hong Kong, where some of China’s most influential and innovative firms are listed. Beijing’s stringent anti-Covid-19 curbs, regulatory crackdowns on corporations, a property-sector crisis and geopolitical tensions with the West have all combined to erode China’s appeal as the world’s growth engine.

“We see India as the best structural growth story across not just emerging markets, but worldwide,” said Evan Metcalf, CEO at Global X ETFs. “While China’s growth has stalled and is mired in uncertainty, India has a generational opportunity to emerge as the growth engine of emerging markets. Demographics are a key advantage, coupled with a surge in educated youth and a progressive government pursuing key structural reforms.”

Meanwhile, Chinese and Hong Kong equities are suffering a rout of epic proportions, with the total market value of their stocks having tumbled by more than $6 trillion since their peaks in 2021. New listings have dried up in Hong Kong, with the Asian financial hub losing its status as one of the world’s busiest venues for initial public offerings.

Some strategists have been expecting a turnaround. UBS Group AG sees Chinese stocks outperforming Indian peers in 2024 as battered valuations in the former suggest significant upside potential once sentiment turns, while the latter is at “fairly extreme levels,” according to a November report. Bernstein expects the Chinese market to recover, and recommends taking profits on Indian stocks, which it sees as expensive, according to a note earlier this month.

On Tuesday, equities in mainland China climbed after the nation’s authorities were said to consider a package of measures to stabilize the slumping market.

That said, momentum seems to be on India’s side for now.

Foreigners who until recently were enamored with the China narrative are sending their funds over to its South Asian rival. Global pension and sovereign wealth managers are also seen favoring India, according to a recent study by London-based think-tank Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

Despite a 2.8% rally on Tuesday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index — a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong — is down more than 10% in 2024 after capping a record four-year losing streak in 2023. It is near hovering its lowest level in almost two decades, while India’s stock benchmarks are trading close to record-high levels.

Overseas funds poured more than $21 billion into Indian shares in 2023, helping the country’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index cap an eighth consecutive year of gains.

“There is a clear consensus that India is the best long-term investment opportunity,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Guillaume Jaisson and Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note Jan. 16 with results of a survey from the firm’s Global Strategy Conference.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Stock Market Sinks as Benchmark Index Hits January Levels

Published

5 days ago

May 15, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Nigerian equity market closed in the red on Tuesday as the benchmark index plummeted to levels last seen in January.

The All-Share Index (ASI) dropped to 97,473.98 points, mirroring the bearish sentiment that prevailed earlier in the year.

Similarly, the market capitalization of listed stocks also experienced a sharp decline, falling to N55.132 trillion, a level reminiscent of the market’s performance in January when it reached N55.583 trillion.

This decline marks a stark reversal from the bullish trend that characterized the latter part of 2023 and spilled over into the early months of 2024.

Analysts had long anticipated a correction in the market, citing the unsustainable nature of the rally driven largely by sentiment rather than fundamental economic or market improvements.

David Adonri, a seasoned stockbroker, described the previous bullish run as sentiment-driven, noting that while the equities market had recorded impressive gains of 39.84 percent in the first quarter of 2024, it lacked substantial support from economic or market fundamentals.

Despite efforts to reignite investor interest through corporate actions and announcements, such as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s plans for a recapitalization exercise, the market struggled to maintain momentum.

Other investment avenues offering better yields further diverted attention away from equities.

The day’s trading session saw notable declines in the share prices of key players such as Dangote Sugar and PZ Cussons, both recording a 10 per cent drop, extending their stay on the losers’ chart.

The Initiates Plc, a waste management firm, also witnessed a similar decline in its share price.

Trading activities painted a gloomy picture as total deals, volume, and value all depreciated significantly compared to the previous day.

Sectoral performance reflected the overall bearish sentiment with declines observed in banking, insurance, and consumer goods indices.

While the industrial goods index saw a marginal rise, the oil and gas sector remained stable amidst the turmoil.

AccessCorp emerged as the most traded security by volume, while GTCO led in traded value, highlighting investor interest in specific stocks despite the market-wide downturn.

Bonds

Investor Appetite Wanes as FG Bond Auction Sees Lowest Participation of the Year

Published

5 days ago

May 15, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Subscription for the Federal Government bond auction on May 13, 2024 was the lowest so far in 2024.

Despite the subdued interest, the government successfully raised N380.76 billion, albeit experiencing a 39 per cent reduction compared to the proceeds from the previous month’s auction.

The aggregate subscription across all tenors amounted to N551.316 billion, representing a decrease from the N920.08 billion recorded in the preceding month.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reported a non-competitive allotment of N301.30 billion.

The auction featured various bond tenors with the new 9-year bond taking center stage. This bond attracted substantial interest, garnering N373.875 billion in subscriptions.

Of this amount, N285.124 billion was allotted, inclusive of N179.00 billion under non-competitive bids.

The bids ranged from 16.95 per cent to 22.00 per cent, eventually settling at a marginal rate of 19.89 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 7-year bond received bids totaling N76.875 billion, with N62.975 billion allotted. Non-competitive allotments accounted for N85.80 billion.

The bids ranged from 17.20 per cent to 20.80 per cent, resulting in a final marginal rate of 19.74 per cent.

In addition, the 5-year bond attracted bids amounting to N100.56 billion, with an allotment of N32.67 billion.

An additional N36.500 billion was allocated through non-competitive bids. Bids spanned from 17.50 per cent to 21.00 per cent, and the marginal rate was set at 19.29 per cent.

The subdued subscription level in May 2024 indicates a lack of robust investor participation in government bonds compared to previous auctions.

This decline in investor interest could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing market conditions, economic uncertainties, and evolving investment preferences.

Stock Market

Retail Traders Revive Meme-Stock Craze with GameStop and AMC Rally

Published

5 days ago

May 15, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Meme-stock traders have reignited the flame that propelled shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. to record heights once again.

GameStop, the video-game retailer at the center of the meme-stock phenomenon, appreciated by 60% in stock price to gain as much as 113% earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, AMC, the struggling movie theater chain, saw its shares rise by 32%, triggering multiple trading halts throughout the trading session.

The abrupt and dramatic swings in both stocks indicated the resurgent fervor among retail investors.

This latest rally was sparked by the return of Keith Gill, famously known as “Roaring Kitty” on social media, who played a pivotal role in driving the meme-stock mania of 2021.

Gill’s reappearance online reignited enthusiasm among day traders on platforms like Reddit, reviving interest in GameStop and AMC.

Amid the fervent trading activity, AMC announced the successful completion of a previously announced at-the-market offering of shares, raising approximately $250 million in total.

The company sold 72.5 million shares at an average price of $3.45, bolstering its financial position amidst the stock surge.

Tuttle Capital Management CEO, Matthew Tuttle, commented on the developments, stating, “I think it shaped up pretty good for everybody here.

They did what they needed to do, and the shareholders didn’t get wiped out.”

The rally in AMC’s stock also had a significant impact on its bonds, with its notes experiencing substantial gains in high-yield trading.

AMC’s 10% bond due 2026 surged as much as 11.25 cents on the dollar to 87 cents, reflecting investor optimism fueled by the stock’s resurgence.

While the recent surge in GameStop and AMC stocks echoes the frenzy of 2021, trading volumes and activity still fall short of the peak reached during the meme-stock craze of that period.

Despite this, GameStop ranked as the second-most traded stock by retail investors for out-of-the-money call option volumes on Monday, signaling sustained interest in the meme-stock universe.

As retail traders continue to drive momentum in GameStop and AMC, market observers remain vigilant, watching closely for further developments in this evolving saga of retail-driven stock market dynamics.