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India Surpasses Hong Kong in Market Cap Race, Emerging as Global Investment Magnet

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Indian Rupee

India’s stock market capitalization has overtaken Hong Kong’s for the first time as the South Asian nation’s growth prospects and policy reforms make it an investor darling while global capital pours out of China.

The combined value of shares listed on Indian exchanges reached $4.33 trillion as of Monday’s close, versus $4.29 trillion for Hong Kong, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That makes India the fourth-biggest equity market globally. Its value crossed $4 trillion for the first time on Dec. 5, with about half of that coming in the past four years.

Equities in India have been booming, thanks to a rapidly growing retail investor base and strong corporate earnings. The world’s most populous country has positioned itself as an alternative to China, attracting fresh capital from global investors and companies alike, thanks to its stable political setup and a consumption-driven economy that remains among the fastest-growing of major nations.

The relentless rally in Indian stocks has coincided with a historic slump in Hong Kong, where some of China’s most influential and innovative firms are listed. Beijing’s stringent anti-Covid-19 curbs, regulatory crackdowns on corporations, a property-sector crisis and geopolitical tensions with the West have all combined to erode China’s appeal as the world’s growth engine.

“We see India as the best structural growth story across not just emerging markets, but worldwide,” said Evan Metcalf, CEO at Global X ETFs. “While China’s growth has stalled and is mired in uncertainty, India has a generational opportunity to emerge as the growth engine of emerging markets. Demographics are a key advantage, coupled with a surge in educated youth and a progressive government pursuing key structural reforms.”

Meanwhile, Chinese and Hong Kong equities are suffering a rout of epic proportions, with the total market value of their stocks having tumbled by more than $6 trillion since their peaks in 2021. New listings have dried up in Hong Kong, with the Asian financial hub losing its status as one of the world’s busiest venues for initial public offerings.

Some strategists have been expecting a turnaround. UBS Group AG sees Chinese stocks outperforming Indian peers in 2024 as battered valuations in the former suggest significant upside potential once sentiment turns, while the latter is at “fairly extreme levels,” according to a November report. Bernstein expects the Chinese market to recover, and recommends taking profits on Indian stocks, which it sees as expensive, according to a note earlier this month.

On Tuesday, equities in mainland China climbed after the nation’s authorities were said to consider a package of measures to stabilize the slumping market.

That said, momentum seems to be on India’s side for now.

Foreigners who until recently were enamored with the China narrative are sending their funds over to its South Asian rival. Global pension and sovereign wealth managers are also seen favoring India, according to a recent study by London-based think-tank Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

Despite a 2.8% rally on Tuesday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index — a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong — is down more than 10% in 2024 after capping a record four-year losing streak in 2023. It is near hovering its lowest level in almost two decades, while India’s stock benchmarks are trading close to record-high levels.

Overseas funds poured more than $21 billion into Indian shares in 2023, helping the country’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index cap an eighth consecutive year of gains.

“There is a clear consensus that India is the best long-term investment opportunity,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Guillaume Jaisson and Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note Jan. 16 with results of a survey from the firm’s Global Strategy Conference.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Exchange Sees 0.05% Uptick After Bearish Streak: Investors Gain N26bn

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After enduring a prolonged period of bearish trading, the Nigerian Exchange has finally witnessed a slight uptick, bringing a glimmer of hope to investors.

The modest increase of 0.05% in the All-Share Index signals a potential reversal of the recent downward trend with investors collectively gaining N26 billion in market value.

In recent days, the local bourse has been grappling with a bearish run, characterized by sell-offs and waning investor interest. Major indexes had faltered, dipping below milestones achieved earlier in the year.

However, Thursday’s trading session brought a much-needed reprieve as the market saw a marginal increase, instilling cautious optimism among market participants.

At the close of trading on Thursday, the All-Share Index edged up by 48 basis points, settling at 98,169.30 points.

Similarly, the market capitalization appreciated by 0.05%, reaching N55.52 trillion. While the increase may seem modest, it marks a significant shift from the downward trajectory that had persisted in previous sessions.

The market movers for the day included stocks of Zenith Bank Plc, Access Holdings, and Transcorp, which contributed to the gains observed.

Transcorp Hotels, Livestock, Tantalizer Plc, Sunu Assurance, and WAPIC led the pack with notable share price increases ranging from 6.15% to 9.75%.

Despite the overall uptrend, the exchange recorded more losers than gainers, reflecting subdued trading activity. Total deals, volume, and value experienced declines, indicating lingering caution among investors.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with the banking and consumer goods indexes witnessing declines, while the insurance index posted gains.

The announcement of corporate earnings and the proposed banking sector recapitalization exercise failed to significantly reignite interest in the market.

While these developments may have influenced investor sentiment to some extent, broader economic factors and global market conditions continue to shape investor behavior.

Zenith Bank emerged as the most traded security by volume and value, further underlining its significance in the market.

With 48.49 million units valued at N1.77 billion exchanged in 577 deals, Zenith Bank remains a key player in driving trading activity on the exchange.

As the market navigates through uncertainties and volatility, investors remain cautiously optimistic about future prospects.

While the recent uptick offers a glimmer of hope, market participants are keenly observing developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly, cognizant of the dynamic nature of the financial markets.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Exchange Continues Bearish Trend, Investors Lose N673bn

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The Nigerian exchange closed another day in the red as market capitalisation dipped by N673 billion on Wednesday.

The persistent downward trend has left stakeholders grappling with uncertainty and heightened volatility in the financial markets.

During midweek trading, the All-Share Index (ASI) endured a decline of 1.20% or 1,190.24 index points to settle at 98,121.30 index points.

Similarly, the market capitalization of listed equities plummeted by 1.20% to N55.494 trillion, this downturn further reduced the year-to-date return to 31.22%.

The Nigerian exchange has been mired in a bearish sentiment for weeks, marked by successive declines attributed to sell-offs driven by prevailing market dynamics and shifts in fundamentals.

Factors such as a high-interest rate environment and improved yields in alternative investment avenues have contributed to the sustained downward pressure on the exchange.

Despite the overall negative sentiment, there were more gainers than decliners, with 22 stocks recording gains compared to 19 stocks in the red. This shift in market dynamics was reflected in trading activity levels, with total deals and value experiencing gains of 7.96% and 22.10%, respectively.

However, traded volume witnessed a notable decline of 31.10% to 395.75 million units.

Sectoral performance exhibited a mixed trend, with the Banking and Insurance sectors posting losses due to sell-offs in key stocks such as FBN Holdings, United Bank for Africa, AIICO, and others.

Conversely, the Consumer and Industrial Goods sectors recorded marginal gains driven by positive sentiment in select stocks.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc emerged as the most traded security in terms of volume and value, followed closely by Zenith Bank Plc. However, key stocks such as MTN Nigeria, Transcorp Hotels, Oando Plc, and FBNH experienced significant declines, contributing to the overall market downturn.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Stocks Open Week with 0.17% Gain, Banking Sector Leads Market Rally

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Nigerian Exchange Limited - Investors King

Nigerian stocks commenced the week on a positive note as the Exchange gained 0.17% in Monday’s trading session, with the banking sector spearheading the market rally.

The positive close pushed this year’s return to date to 33.34%, one of the highest in the world at the moment.

Analysts attributed the market’s positive momentum to increased investor interest in banking, insurance and industrial goods stocks.

This surge in buying activity follows recent widespread selloffs in the banking sector, presenting attractive opportunities for bargain hunters.

According to Vetiva Research analysts, the banking space witnessed significant bargain-hunting activity, indicating renewed confidence in the sector after previous weeks of sell-offs.

This sentiment propelled the overall market performance, with expectations of mixed trading sessions in the coming days as first-quarter earnings reports start to trickle in.

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization reflected the market’s upward trajectory, appreciating from 99,539.75 points and N56.296 trillion respectively to 99,665.05 points and N56.367 trillion.

In total, investors exchanged 306,620,144 shares worth N5.300 billion in 8,298 deals.

Despite the positive market sentiment, analysts from Lagos-based United Capital Research cautioned that activities in the fixed income market could continue to deter equities investments.

However, they highlighted the potential for bargain-hunting activities, particularly in the banking sector, amidst the recent bearish trend.

Overall, the Nigerian equities market’s resilient performance underscores investor confidence and optimism, driven by strategic sectoral investments and expectations of improved corporate earnings.

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