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Oil Prices Dip Over 1% Due to Saudi Arabia’s Price Cuts And Increased OPEC Output

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices dipped by more than 1% on Monday following Saudi Arabia’s strategic decision to implement sharp price cuts and a simultaneous rise in OPEC output.

This development countered concerns surrounding escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and illustrated the complex dynamics influencing global oil markets.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, slipped by 1.09% or 86 cents to settle at $77.90 per barrel at around 4:44 am on Monday.

Concurrently, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil witnessed a decline of 1.15% or shed 85-cent close at $72.96 per barrel.

The notable move by Saudi Arabia involved cutting the February official selling price (OSP) of its primary Arab Light crude to Asia, reaching the lowest level observed in 27 months.

Vandana Hari, the founder of Vanda Insights and a prominent oil market analysis provider, highlighted this action as reinforcing the narrative of weak demand.

Analysts like Tony Sycamore from IG acknowledged the bearish outlook portrayed by fundamental factors such as increased inventories, elevated OPEC/non-OPEC production, and lower-than-expected Saudi OSP.

However, he emphasized that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could act as a mitigating factor, introducing a level of uncertainty to the market dynamics.

The first week of 2024 witnessed both Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures experiencing a positive surge of over 2%, primarily attributed to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Attacks by Yemeni Houthis on ships in the Red Sea intensified concerns, prompting investors to focus on potential disruptions to the region’s stability.

The ongoing visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the Middle East added to the geopolitical narrative.

Blinken expressed apprehensions about the Gaza conflict spreading unless concerted peace efforts were made.

In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to persist in the conflict until Hamas was eradicated.

Despite these geopolitical concerns providing upward pressure on oil prices, a Reuters survey revealed that OPEC’s output increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, reaching 27.88 million bpd.

Analysts, including Vandana Hari, regarded the tensions in the Red Sea as a somewhat weak and intermittent counterweight against the broader bearish sentiment influenced by expectations of softened global demand and rising inventories.

Adding another layer to the oil market dynamics, Baker Hughes reported a marginal increase of one oil drilling rig in the U.S., bringing the total to 501 for the week.

JPMorgan forecasted the addition of 26 oil rigs in the coming year, with a concentration expected in the Permian region during the first half of 2024.

The juxtaposition of these factors contributes to the intricate landscape shaping the trajectory of oil prices in the near term.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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