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Bitcoin’s Strong Start in 2024 Sparks Speculation on Mainstream Asset Shift

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In a surprising departure from the gloomy tone prevailing in global markets during the first days of January, Bitcoin posted a 6% gain after trading above $45,300 as of 6:50 a.m. Wednesday.

The resilience of the largest digital asset has defied the lackluster start seen in traditional markets, especially in US equity futures, which struggled for traction after a drop in American stocks on the first trading day of 2024.

The optimistic momentum is attributed to growing expectations that the US is on the verge of allowing the country’s first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart is among those anticipating that the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) will greenlight a batch of spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the January 10 deadline.

This optimism has driven Bitcoin’s value up by 172% in the past 12 months, with investors betting that ETFs will stimulate increased demand for the cryptocurrency.

The pivotal question now centers around whether the anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will trigger a profit-taking scenario among speculators.

Analysts from K33 Research suggest caution, foreseeing a potential “sell-the-news” event in the short term, as mega immediate inflows to the ETFs might not materialize.

However, they emphasize that this development signifies a more profound and lasting shift in buyer interest.

While K33 Research estimates a 75% chance of approval resulting in a “sell-the-news” event, they assign a 20% probability to a further increase in Bitcoin prices due to ETF inflows.

Also, there is a 5% chance, according to the research firm, that the SEC may reject the ETF launch efforts, though this outcome is deemed less likely.

Digital assets, including Bitcoin, have also been buoyed by speculations that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts in 2024.

The recent weakness in traditional stocks is seen as a reassessment of these projections, and crypto prices could experience fluctuations if investors continue to adjust their expectations regarding looser monetary policy.

Notably, the increasing cost of bets on rising Bitcoin prices in the futures market serves as an indicator of emerging speculative excess in the ongoing bullish run.

Sean Farrell, the head of digital-asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, highlights that funding costs at these levels typically precede volatility, and the direction of that volatility will hinge on near-term flows.

As Bitcoin maintains its bullish trajectory, market participants are closely watching for the SEC’s decision and its potential implications for the broader cryptocurrency landscape.

The outcome could mark a turning point, propelling Bitcoin further into the financial mainstream or prompting a recalibration of market expectations.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Steady Above $70,900 as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Outflows Increase

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Bitcoin (BTC) maintains its stronghold above $70,900 despite increasing outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

As reported by CheckonChain, a total of $124.9 million flowed out of GBTC recently, contrasting with modest inflows into other investment vehicles like Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB.

This trend has prompted speculation within the market regarding its impact on Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

While some believe that continued outflows from GBTC may exert selling pressure on BTC, driving down prices, others adopt a more cautious approach.

They argue that such outflows are expected from GBTC, given its relatively higher fee structure compared to alternative investment options.

Traders, however, seem to be pricing in a degree of stability for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, with optimistic forecasts on platforms like Polymarket.

According to predictions, there’s a 60% chance that BTC will reach $75,000 by the end of April, while the likelihood of it hitting $80,000 stands at 32%.

Despite the varying sentiments among market participants, Bitcoin’s resilience above the $70,900 mark underscores its status as a cornerstone asset in the crypto space.

Investors continue to monitor developments closely, navigating through the complex interplay of factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

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Bitcoin Tests $66,000 Amidst Volatility Forecast

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As Bitcoin surged to a $66,000 price level during Asian trading hours, cryptocurrency markets brace for heightened volatility, with market observers predicting turbulent times ahead.

The cryptocurrency’s price volatility has been a subject of much discussion, particularly in light of recent events.

Semir Gabeljic, Director of Capital Formation at Pythagoras Investments, who highlighted the ongoing volatility cited a recent drawdown of 10% fueled by spot Bitcoin ETF outflows from GBTC, totaling approximately $300 million on March 20.

Gabeljic emphasized that such drawdowns typically occur in the lead-up to Bitcoin halving events, signaling a potential for increased volatility in the near future.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which tracks the world’s most liquid digital assets, experienced a minor dip of 0.5%.

However, amidst this overall market movement, CoinDesk’s Digitization Index (DTZ) saw a notable uptick, led by protocols like Ethereum Name Service (ENS), which rose by 2.7% during Asia trading hours.

Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital noted the current consolidation in the market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum trading within a relatively tight range.

They suggested that the market might see a pause in activity over the weekend following the volatility leading up to the previous weekend’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Also, QCP Capital highlighted the continued outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), expecting a fourth consecutive day of BTC spot exchange-traded fund net outflows.

The firm also pointed out a widening discount on Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and the market’s diminishing expectations for the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF.

With Bitcoin’s test of $66,000 and ongoing market dynamics, cryptocurrency investors and analysts remain vigilant, anticipating further fluctuations in the days to come.

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Binance CEO Forecasts Bitcoin Surge Beyond $80,000 on Institutional Inflows

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Binance Chief Executive Officer Richard Teng has set his sights on Bitcoin surging beyond the $80,000 price level on the back of rising institutional investments into crypto-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Speaking at an event in Bangkok on Sunday, Teng highlighted the significant impact of the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States earlier this year.

He noted that this development has attracted a considerable influx of institutional investors, propelling fresh funds into the cryptocurrency market.

Teng expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, emphasizing that “we’re just getting started.”

Initially estimating Bitcoin to reach around $80,000 by the end of the year, Teng now believes that the cryptocurrency’s price will surpass this milestone.

He attributed this bullish outlook to a combination of decreasing supply and sustained demand within the market.

However, he cautioned that the rally wouldn’t be without its fluctuations, suggesting that the market’s ups and downs would ultimately benefit its overall health.

Bitcoin has already surged by an impressive 56% this year, reaching a record high of nearly $73,798 last week.

Despite concerns among some investors about a potential bubble, Teng remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Teng’s forecast comes in the wake of his appointment as CEO of Binance, succeeding co-founder Changpeng Zhao in November following the company’s $4.3 billion settlement with US authorities.

With relentless inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since their approval in January, Teng expects further institutional adoption in the near term, with more endowments and family offices anticipated to increase their allocations into Bitcoin ETFs.

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