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Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector Sees Sluggish 1.9% Growth in Q1-Q3 2023, Facing Multiple Challenges

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Agriculture - Investors King

In the intricate tapestry of Nigeria’s economic landscape, the agricultural sector finds itself navigating turbulent waters, marked by a paltry 1.9% growth during the first three quarters of 2023.

This lackluster performance stands in stark contrast to the robust 6.1% growth achieved in the corresponding period of 2022, painting a vivid picture of the challenges plaguing the nation’s agrarian backbone.

Amidst the myriad obstacles hindering agricultural prosperity, the scarcity of the naira, foreign exchange woes, dwindling investments, climate change, and the geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine war have collectively cast a shadow over the sector’s growth trajectory.

As Nigeria grapples with these multifaceted challenges, the once-vibrant agricultural domain faces a critical juncture in its pivotal role as a contributor to the nation’s economy.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) sheds light on the intricate nuances of this decline, revealing that the four key sub-activities—crop production, livestock, forestry, and fishing—comprising the agricultural sector grew by a mere 5.24% year-on-year in nominal terms in the first quarter of 2023.

This marked a substantial decrease of 6.31 percentage points from the same quarter in 2022, reflecting the sector’s struggle to maintain its growth momentum.

Crop production emerges as the linchpin of the sector, constituting a substantial 86.85% of the overall nominal value in the first quarter of 2023.

However, despite its dominance, the sector witnessed a decline of 13.44 percentage points in year-on-year growth, plummeting from 18.67% in the preceding quarter to a mere -28.83% in the first quarter of 2023.

This underscores the severity of the challenges afflicting the agricultural landscape.

In real terms, the agricultural sector’s performance in the first quarter of 2023 further mirrors the struggles, with a year-on-year growth of -0.90%, showcasing a decrease of 4.06 percentage points compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

A quarter-on-quarter basis paints an even bleaker picture, with a decline of -30.95%, accentuating the sector’s vulnerability to a confluence of adversities.

Despite the sector’s vital contribution, accounting for approximately 23% of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the agricultural landscape faces a pivotal juncture demanding strategic interventions.

The African Development Bank’s earlier projection hinted at the potential for transformative growth, envisioning Africa’s agricultural output skyrocketing from $280 billion to $1 trillion by 2030 with the right investments and policy initiatives.

Regrettably, the promises of agricultural revitalization have yet to materialize as the sector contends with a barrage of challenges, resulting in food price hikes that reverberate through the economy.

The commitment expressed by the former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Mohammad Abubakar, now appears more crucial than ever.

However, the sector, once a beacon of promise, now stands at a crossroads, grappling with a meager 1.9% growth and a host of unresolved issues that demand urgent attention for its rejuvenation.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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