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Nigeria’s Fiscal and External Reforms Receive Positive Nod from Moody’s

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Moody’s Investors Service recently elevated the nation’s outlook from stable to positive.

This development serves as both a commendation and a call to action for the government’s efforts to address fiscal and external challenges.

Moody’s highlighted key policy changes, including the unification of foreign exchange windows and the removal of the oil subsidy as significant steps toward resolving foreign exchange shortages and supporting external rebalancing.

The positive outlook signifies Moody’s recognition of the potential reversal in Nigeria’s fiscal and external position resulting from these reform initiatives.

The country’s proactive measures, such as devaluing the naira and embracing a market-determined exchange rate policy, have set the stage for addressing longstanding issues.

Furthermore, the removal of the oil subsidy, a substantial and crucial reform often postponed, has contributed to the optimistic outlook.

However, Moody’s maintained a cautious stance, affirming Nigeria’s Caa1 rating, indicating a still weak fiscal and external position.

The rating agency underscored the challenges posed by high inflation, which exerts pressure on government spending and raises social risks.

Also, uncertainties remain regarding the extent of fiscal relief from the oil subsidy removal.

Market analysts view Moody’s positive outlook as a signal to international investors, indicating an improved external fiscal position.

Tunde Amolegbe, Managing Director of Arthur Stevens Asset Management, sees this review as a positive indication of improved revenue, reserves, and the government’s ability to meet obligations.

This could attract foreign investors and businesses looking to engage with Nigerian entities.

However, experts emphasize the dual impact of these policies, noting that while they may attract foreign investments, the socioeconomic impact on ordinary Nigerians cannot be ignored.

The removal of subsidies and the fluctuating exchange rates have contributed to the citizens’ economic challenges, including high inflation and rising prices.

Rotimi Olubi, Managing Director of ARM Securities Ltd, suggests that in the short term, the impact on the capital market may be limited, given its dominance by domestic players.

However, he anticipates a potential influx of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) in the mid to long term once forex illiquidity challenges are addressed.

Moody’s highlighted the importance of sustained improvement in oil production and external funding inflows for a continued positive trajectory.

The rating agency also emphasized the need for effective policy coordination to combat inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability, citing institutional constraints and data reliability as challenges.

Nigeria’s local and foreign currency country ceilings remain unchanged, reflecting some degree of unpredictability in government actions, political risk, and reliance on a single revenue source.

Moody’s ESG Credit Impact Score for Nigeria indicates considerably higher exposure to environmental, social, and governance risks.

As Nigeria navigates this rating upgrade, attention shifts to the potential benefits for the economy and the challenges faced by citizens, highlighting the delicate balance required for sustainable growth and inclusive development.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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