Connect with us

Economy

The Nigerian Banking Industry – A Resilient Industry Navigating a Volatile Operating Terrain – AGUSTO & CO

Published

on

Trade - Investors King

Agusto & Co. Limited, the pan-African credit rating agency and the foremost business information provider has released its 2023 Nigerian Banking Industry Report. The 2023 edition of the annual report provides a comprehensive review of Nigeria’s banking industry (“the Industry”) and the near-term expectations and outlook for the Industry.

The Nigerian banking industry has continued to be resilient despite the raging macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds that have constrained performance in the last three years. Innovation and malleability of the banks as reflected in the transition to the financial holding company structure and upscale of banking license by some players have upheld the Industry.

Collaborations with financial technology companies (FinTechs), domestic and international development finance institutions (DFIs), among other partnerships have also supported the Nigerian banking industry.

Agusto & Co. notes that the Industry’s loan book rose by 27% in FY 2022, spurred by increased activities at the differentiated cash reserve requirement (D-CRR) window, higher deposit base and naira devaluation.

Banks have backed this growth with additional investment in credit risk management and capital raising exercises. Following the inauguration of President Tinubu, the new administration has implemented several reforms aimed at reversing prevailing macroeconomic imbalances.

Agusto & Co. believes that the reforms including the removal of the petrol subsidy, exchange rate harmonisation, tax reforms and restoration of a methodological framework for calculating the cash reserve requirements (CRR) provide growth opportunities for the Industry.

For instance, we believe many banks will take advantage of rising liquidity following the eradication of arbitrary CRR debits to grow the loan book, especially since the working capital needs of businesses continue to rise given the weakening domestic currency and other inflationary pressures.

Agusto & Co expects that new loan disbursements will largely flow to traditional sectors including manufacturing, oil and gas and general commerce amongst others and resilient players given the volatile operating terrain. Nascent sectors such as renewable energy, health and gender-based businesses will also continue to gain according to Agusto & Co.

Nevertheless, some pressures in asset quality are expected, considering the lower consumer purchasing power and dwindling margins of some industries. However, the non-performing loan ratio of the Industry is expected to remain below 5% as at FYE 2023 as many banks leverage their past experiences from recessions and the pandemic to navigate this stressed cycle.

Agusto & Co.’s expectation for performance by the Nigerian banking industry is positive. With the reversal to normalcy with respect to CRR debits and foreign currency illiquidity, many banks have witnessed a rise in available funding for risk asset creation and we believe this would be exploited to boost interest income and ancillary earnings through the treasury function.

Given the Industry’s net foreign currency asset position, Agusto & Co. believes the banking industry is also poised to benefit significantly from the massive naira depreciation that followed the move to harmonise the various exchange windows, reporting significant foreign exchange gains. Overall, Agusto & Co. anticipates a 520 basis points increase in the return on equity to 26.8%.

However, the Industry is not entirely insulated from the vagaries of the Nigerian economy and we expect inflationary pressures to bloat operating expenses in the near term.

The persistent naira devaluation and heightened credit risk environment have adversely impacted the Industry’s capitalisation position. Agusto & Co. expect these pressures to be accentuated by the ongoing macroeconomic reforms, particularly the naira devaluation.

However, the ongoing recapitalisation exercise by some banks as well as the planned retention of profits will moderate the impact. Agusto & Co. notes the initiatives by banks with negative equity to resolve the challenge before December 2023. As a result, we expect the Industry’s capital adequacy ratio to improve to 19.2% as at FYE 2023.

As the competitive landscape is changing the holding company structure is gaining more prominence with banks seeking to diversify into new businesses such as pension and asset management while responding to the disruption by FinTech companies. We expect more banks to go the HoldCo route as the competitive landscape changes. Similarly, environmental and social considerations are also expected to be more prominent in the near term.

Overall, Agusto & Co.’s financial projection for the Nigerian banking industry is generally positive, however, we recognise that the Industry will face emerging risks from policy reforms and the ability to respond swiftly will determine the winners and the losers.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

Published

on

Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

Continue Reading

Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

Published

on

Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

Published

on

IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending