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Economic Downturn Ravages Multiple Sectors in Q2 2023

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The Nigerian economy faced a severe setback in the second quarter of 2023, with losses exceeding N1 trillion.

This alarming decline was unveiled following a breakdown of Gross Domestic Product data released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics.

An astonishing total of twenty-six sectors witnessed a contraction during this period, collectively hemorrhaging a staggering N1.16 trillion from their economic value.

The real Gross Domestic Product slumped from N7.69 trillion in the first quarter to a disconcerting N6.54 trillion.

Among the industries that struggled to stay afloat in Q2 2023 were fishing, crude petroleum and natural gas, cement, food, beverage, and tobacco, textile, apparel, and footwear, wood and wood products, pulp, paper, and paper products, non-metallic products, basic metal, iron and steel, motor vehicles and assembly, other manufacturing, construction, accommodation and food services, road transport, and air transport.

Further adding to the economic distress were sectors like post and courier services, publishing, motion pictures, sound recording and music production, arts, entertainment, and recreation, financial institutions, real estate, professional, scientific, and technical services, education, other services, metal ores, and plastic and rubber products.

Recent GDP results from the NBS offered a sliver of hope, with real GDP experiencing a marginal uptick of 0.20 percentage points, reaching 2.51 percent in Q2, 2023, compared to the 2.31 percent recorded in Q1, 2023.

The NBS attributed this modest growth to the persistent economic challenges facing the nation.

However, this resurgence was not enough to erase the scars of the previous quarter when the economy contracted sharply from 3.52 percent in Q4, 2022, to 2.31 percent in Q1, 2023, due to cash shortages.

Also, inflation continued its relentless ascent, reaching a disconcerting 22.79 percent in June, eroding the purchasing power of Nigerians.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s GDP growth remains below the International Monetary Fund’s projections of a 3.2 percent growth rate for 2023.

The economic downturn has been attributed to recent reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates, which have imposed hardships on businesses.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria reported job cuts and reduced productivity, underscoring the ramifications of these changes on the workforce and output.

Speaking on the situation, Segun Kuti-George, the National Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, said, “If the GDP decreases, it can trigger job losses. It means that our output is on the decline. It means there is reduced productivity.”

Musa Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, echoed these concerns, stating that economic reforms have cast a shadow over GDP growth.

The road to economic recovery appears challenging, with the nation grappling with a multitude of obstacles that must be surmounted for sustained growth and prosperity.

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Economy

Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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Sanwo-Olu Unveils Lagos Red Line Rail For Commercial Operations

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The Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has officially unveiled the LMRT Red Line for commercial operations.

The governor said the Red Line is the second rail system to become operational in less than two years in the state.

The 27-kilometre Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado.

The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as the schedule is increased, providing a viable means of commuting.

In a post on his verified social media handles on Tuesday, Sanwo-Olu warned against vandalisation of the project, saying his government wouldn’t tolerate the destruction of public property.

Sanwo-Olu wrote, “Dear Lagosians, today marks the launch of commercial operations of the LMRT Red Line, commencing passenger services from Agbado to Oyingbo.

“We’re on a mission to keep Lagos moving, and the Red Line is a key part of our vision to create a seamlessly connected city. It is also our second rail system to become operational in less than two years.

“Spanning 27, the Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado. The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as we ramp up the schedule and provide a viable means of commuting.”

He added that daily passenger services will depart from Agbado at 6:00 AM, with the second train leaving Iju Station at 7:30 AM.

“Ensure you have your Cowry Card ready to board,” he noted.

He urged residents to treat the project with the respect it deserves, stressing that “vandalism or disruptions will not be tolerated.”

He said, “Together, we can ensure that our trains remain a safe and enjoyable experience for everyone.”

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