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Real Estate and Construction Boom: A Steady Pillar of Nigeria’s Economic Growth Amidst Challenging Times

Private Sector Drives Growth Despite Soaring Interest Rates and Inflation

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real-estate

Nigeria’s real estate and construction sectors have emerged as resilient pillars of economic growth, contributing a staggering N93.14tn to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Despite facing headwinds of rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions, both sectors have demonstrated remarkable growth, proving their significance in job creation and economic prosperity.

According to an in-depth analysis of the GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics between 2019 and 2022, the real estate and construction industries have been able to secure loans totaling N21.89tn from deposit money banks. This influx of credit facilities has facilitated infrastructural activities and fueled substantial investments, propelling these sectors to new heights.

However, the recent increase in the benchmark interest rate by the Central Bank of Nigeria to 18.5 percent in May 2023 has raised concerns among industry experts. The move was part of a strategy to curb inflation and mop up liquidity, but it has led to higher interest rates on loans, potentially impacting housing development negatively.

Toye Eniola, the Executive Secretary of the Association of Housing Corporation of Nigeria, said “Higher interest rates on loans would hamper housing development.”

He pointed out that development loans require patient funds, and obtaining loans at above 20 percent could deter lucrative projects and lead to a surge in abandoned constructions.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) echoed these concerns, warning that tightening financial conditions, including interest rate hikes, might impact commercial property prices and reduce investments in the sector. Such stringent conditions could also indirectly slow economic activity and reduce demand for commercial properties, including shops, restaurants, and industrial buildings.

Despite these challenges, the real estate and construction sectors have shown resilience and substantial growth. Between January 2019 and December 2022, borrowing by real estate firms surged by an impressive 44.4 percent from N15.16tn to N21.89tn.

Moreover, infrastructural activities in the housing and construction sector witnessed a remarkable growth rate of 59.6 per cent during the same period, surging from N18.13tn in 2019 to N28.94tn in 2022.

This exponential growth showcases the potential of these sectors to drive economic expansion and create job opportunities, further underlining the importance of supporting private investors and providing them with a conducive environment to thrive.

Aliyu Wamakko, Chairman of the Real Estate Developer Association of Nigeria, emphasized that “the private sector must be given a platform and a level playing ground for them to perform” to harness the full potential of the real estate and construction industries. He highlighted the substantial job creation potential in these sectors and called for more opportunities to be given to the private sector to support the country’s economic growth.

While challenges persist, the resilience and significant contributions of the real estate and construction sectors remain undeniable. As Nigeria navigates through the complexities of economic growth, ensuring an enabling environment for these industries is crucial for sustained prosperity and progress.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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