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Some Positives For the BoE From UK Jobs Data, Chinese Figures Less Good

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Australia Jobless rate

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Stock markets are treading water on Tuesday, with jobs number from the UK not inspiring and Chinese data also highlighting weakness in the recovery.

Some positives for the BoE to cling to

UK jobs data was a mixed bag this morning as wages accelerated again to 6.7%, excluding bonuses, while unemployment also ticked higher as inactivity fell. The Bank of England will no doubt be concerned about the pace of wage growth, with it not being consistent with inflation returning to 2%, but there are signs of slack emerging which is encouraging.

If inflation does halve as expected this year, that in itself should have a dampening effect on wage growth alongside a less tight labour market. There’s still a long way to go but there are promising signs. Sterling declined after the data amid signs that the numbers may soon be enough for the MPC to pause its tightening cycle. Markets are pricing in only one more hike this year before reversing course from the start of next.

An unbalanced recovery in China

Chinese data overnight disappointed, highlighting the likely need for further monetary support from the PBOC over the coming months. The consumer has been the engine of growth for the economy in the opening months of the year but that, as we’ve seen elsewhere post-pandemic, is primarily services based.

The recovery in China is simply not broad-based and there remain many pockets of weakness that targeted stimulus could provide a boost to. Industrial production and fixed asset investment were both well short of expectations last month and there’s little sign of that improving without additional support.

Oil settles in lower range and further declines may prove challenging

Oil prices are marginally higher on Tuesday but remain below the December to March range. The risks remain tilted to the downside amid a sluggish recovery in China, uncertainty around the US economy and banking system, and the impact of much higher interest rates on demand.

The primary bullish case for oil prices comes from OPEC+ and the prospect of another output cut in a couple of weeks but even that has been downplayed. Perhaps Brent has simply consolidated for now in a $70-$80 range, with a move below here potentially difficult as the US seeks to refill the SPR at these levels, while OPEC+ wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger if prices slipped too far.

Gold buoyed by debt ceiling drama

Gold is a little lower on the day but remains above $2,000 as traders appear reluctant to concede on hopes of record highs. The yellow metal came within a whisker of record highs earlier this month and could take another run at it, depending on how things unfold over the coming weeks.

Debt ceiling drama could be supporting gold and preventing a deeper correction. I think everyone is extremely confident that a default will not happen but the closer we get to the deadline, the more we’ll see those risks being priced into the markets which could support gold.

Beyond that, it’s all about interest rates and whether we can get more evidence of inflation abating and the labour market becoming less tight. That will justify a pause next month and, if we see significant progress on that front, start the conversation around when easing will begin.

A deeper correction for bitcoin?

Bitcoin appears to be consolidating around $27,000 in the short term but there remains downside risk after breaking this notable support level last week. It found support around $26,000 but may struggle to generate significant momentum higher. It’s been a phenomenal run this year so a correction would make sense. If it does break below $26,000 then $25,000 would be the next potential support level.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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