Connect with us

Crude Oil

OPEC Flags Downside Risks to Summer Oil Demand, Shedding Light on Output Cuts

Published

on

opec

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has recently flagged downside risks to summer oil demand as a backdrop to output cuts announced this month by OPEC+ producers.

The group highlighted some of the factors behind the surprise move that led to a rise in oil prices.

OPEC+ comprises OPEC, Russia, and other oil-producing countries, and on April 2, some of its members announced new voluntary production cuts. The unexpected move has prompted oil to rally towards $87 a barrel from below $80.

OPEC+ gave little information on the reasons for the surprise cuts, saying in a statement that they were a “precautionary measure” to support market stability. However, OPEC delegates revealed that they did not know the exact reasons for the reduction.

In a discussion on the summer market outlook in its monthly oil report on Thursday, OPEC said that oil inventories looked more ample and global growth faced a number of challenges.

OPEC referred to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) commercial inventories that have been building in recent months, and product balances that are less tight than seen at the same time last year.

OPEC also pointed out that the usual U.S. seasonal demand uptick could take a hit from any economic weakness due to interest rate hikes. Moreover, the reopening of China after strict COVID-19 containment measures were scrapped had yet to stop a decline in global refining intake of crude.

OPEC added that potential challenges to global economic development include high inflation, monetary tightening, stability of financial markets, and high sovereign, corporate, and private debt levels.

Despite the downside risks, OPEC maintained its forecast that oil demand would rise by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, in 2023, and nudged up its forecast for China.

The global figure remained unchanged for a second straight month. OPEC left its 2023 economic growth forecast at 2.6% and cited potential downside risks. However, it said the spillover from U.S. bank failures in March had a limited economic impact.

Oil weakened after the report was released with Brent crude falling below $87 a barrel. The report also showed that OPEC’s oil production fell in March, reflecting the impact of earlier output cuts pledged by OPEC+ to support the market as well as some unplanned outages.

For November last year, with prices weakening, OPEC+ agreed to a 2 million bpd reduction in its output target, the largest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020.

The April 2 voluntary cuts bring the total curbs pledged by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd, equal to 3.7% of global demand.

The report kept its estimate of the amount of crude OPEC needs to pump in 2023 to balance the market steady at 29.3 million bpd, suggesting there will be a deficit if OPEC keeps pumping at March’s rate or makes further cuts.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

Published

on

Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

Published

on

Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

Published

on

NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending