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IMF’s Perspective on Nigeria via its Article IV Mission – Coronation Economic Note

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IMF global - Investors King

The IMF recently published its Article IV on Nigeria. The consultations with Nigerian officials on economic developments and policies ended in mid-January ’23.

According to the publication, Nigeria has recovered from the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the back of favorable oil prices as well as a boost to consumption patterns.

This was evident in the consecutive q/q growth figures recorded in 2022. Additionally, the report emphasized the importance of reforming fiscal, structural, and exchange rate policies in order to restore macroeconomic stability.

For national output, the Fund projects a moderate GDP growth of 3.2% in 2023. Non-oil growth is expected to broaden to 3.0% largely driven by agriculture, information technology, and trade. Oil production is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels in the mediumterm largely due to production shut-ins and divestments by IOCs. In our base-case scenario, our estimate for GDP growth is 2.8% y/y.

However, it is as high as 3.9% y/y in our optimistic case scenario.

Headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2023, the IMF projects a headline inflation rate of 17.4% y/y at end-2023. We note that the headline inflation stood at 21.82% in January ’23. Our projection for headline inflation in 2023 is slightly higher at 18% y/y.

According to the IMF, the near-term outlook faces downside risks such as higher global food and fertilizer prices and continued widening of the parallel market premium. These could result in a prolonged high inflation environment.

On the fiscal landscape, despite rising oil prices, the general government fiscal deficit is estimated to have widened further in 2022, mainly due to high fuel subsidy costs. The Fund projects that fiscal deficit could be above 6% of total GDP and public debt could rise to 43% of total GDP by 2027 if revenue mobilization efforts are not strengthened and costly fuel subsidies as well as rising debt servicing costs remain.

Regarding tax measures, the IMF advised the authorities to adopt tax rates comparable to Nigeria’s peers in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). These include raising the VAT rate to at least 10% by 2023 and aligning the VAT rate with the ECOWAS average of 15% by 2027, as well as increasing the excise rates on alcoholic and tobacco products.

The IMF welcomed measures taken by the CBN to tighten liquidity and curb inflationary pressure as well as steps taken to securitize CBN’s existing stock of overdrafts. We note that emphasis was placed on phasing out credit intervention programs driven by the CBN.

However, further policy rate hikes to tame inflation are encouraged. In our base case scenario, we expect a +150bps policy rate hike in 2023 to 18%. However, in our downturn scenario we see MPR at 20%.

In H2 2022, the gap between the parallel market and NAFEX exchange rate stayed above 50%. The IMF reaffirmed its previous recommendations that the authorities should consider a unified and market clearing exchange rate in a bid to address persistent fx shortages, reduce capital outflow, and narrow the parallel market premium. Meanwhile, the accretion of FX reserves is projected to remain limited over the medium term. From our vantage point, we expect the external reserves level to be at +/- USD35bn in 2023.

The report further stressed the importance of well-targeted social assistance programs. The IMF recommends increasing social spending by up to 1.7% of GDP cumulatively between 2023-2027 in a bid to cushion the impact of high inflation and expected fuel subsidy removal.

We understand that the World Bank plans to disburse USD1.5bn in 2023 with 50% (USD750m) expected to be channeled towards social assistance programs.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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