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IMF’s Perspective on Nigeria via its Article IV Mission – Coronation Economic Note

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The IMF recently published its Article IV on Nigeria. The consultations with Nigerian officials on economic developments and policies ended in mid-January ’23.

According to the publication, Nigeria has recovered from the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the back of favorable oil prices as well as a boost to consumption patterns.

This was evident in the consecutive q/q growth figures recorded in 2022. Additionally, the report emphasized the importance of reforming fiscal, structural, and exchange rate policies in order to restore macroeconomic stability.

For national output, the Fund projects a moderate GDP growth of 3.2% in 2023. Non-oil growth is expected to broaden to 3.0% largely driven by agriculture, information technology, and trade. Oil production is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels in the mediumterm largely due to production shut-ins and divestments by IOCs. In our base-case scenario, our estimate for GDP growth is 2.8% y/y.

However, it is as high as 3.9% y/y in our optimistic case scenario.

Headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2023, the IMF projects a headline inflation rate of 17.4% y/y at end-2023. We note that the headline inflation stood at 21.82% in January ’23. Our projection for headline inflation in 2023 is slightly higher at 18% y/y.

According to the IMF, the near-term outlook faces downside risks such as higher global food and fertilizer prices and continued widening of the parallel market premium. These could result in a prolonged high inflation environment.

On the fiscal landscape, despite rising oil prices, the general government fiscal deficit is estimated to have widened further in 2022, mainly due to high fuel subsidy costs. The Fund projects that fiscal deficit could be above 6% of total GDP and public debt could rise to 43% of total GDP by 2027 if revenue mobilization efforts are not strengthened and costly fuel subsidies as well as rising debt servicing costs remain.

Regarding tax measures, the IMF advised the authorities to adopt tax rates comparable to Nigeria’s peers in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). These include raising the VAT rate to at least 10% by 2023 and aligning the VAT rate with the ECOWAS average of 15% by 2027, as well as increasing the excise rates on alcoholic and tobacco products.

The IMF welcomed measures taken by the CBN to tighten liquidity and curb inflationary pressure as well as steps taken to securitize CBN’s existing stock of overdrafts. We note that emphasis was placed on phasing out credit intervention programs driven by the CBN.

However, further policy rate hikes to tame inflation are encouraged. In our base case scenario, we expect a +150bps policy rate hike in 2023 to 18%. However, in our downturn scenario we see MPR at 20%.

In H2 2022, the gap between the parallel market and NAFEX exchange rate stayed above 50%. The IMF reaffirmed its previous recommendations that the authorities should consider a unified and market clearing exchange rate in a bid to address persistent fx shortages, reduce capital outflow, and narrow the parallel market premium. Meanwhile, the accretion of FX reserves is projected to remain limited over the medium term. From our vantage point, we expect the external reserves level to be at +/- USD35bn in 2023.

The report further stressed the importance of well-targeted social assistance programs. The IMF recommends increasing social spending by up to 1.7% of GDP cumulatively between 2023-2027 in a bid to cushion the impact of high inflation and expected fuel subsidy removal.

We understand that the World Bank plans to disburse USD1.5bn in 2023 with 50% (USD750m) expected to be channeled towards social assistance programs.

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Economy

China and Brazil Move Away from US Dollar in New Trade Deal

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china's economy

China and Brazil have struck a new trade deal that will allow them to trade in their own currencies, bypassing the need for the US dollar as an intermediary.

This agreement marks a significant move by China to reduce its reliance on the dollar and establishes the country as a formidable rival to the US in the global economy.

The deal was announced by the Brazilian government on Wednesday and will enable the two nations to conduct their financial transactions directly, using Chinese Yuan for Brazilian Real and vice versa.

Brazil’s biggest trading partner is China with bilateral trade worth a record USD 150.5 billion in 2022.

For Brazil, this deal represents a significant shift away from the traditional reliance on the US dollar as the world’s primary currency. According to the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, ApexBrasil, the agreement is expected to reduce costs and promote even greater bilateral trade.

The move away from the US dollar as an intermediary in international trade could have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Other countries may follow suit and start conducting their trade and financial transactions in their own currencies, potentially undermining the dollar’s position as the world’s primary currency.

This is not the first time that China has taken steps to reduce its dependence on the US dollar. In recent years, the country has been promoting the use of the yuan in international trade and investment, and has signed currency swap agreements with other countries to facilitate trade in their own currencies.

The shift away from the US dollar comes at a time of growing tensions between China and the US, with both countries engaged in a trade war and competing for global influence. As China seeks to establish itself as a major player in the global economy, this move is just one example of the country’s efforts to assert its economic power and challenge the dominance of the US.

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Economy

Nigeria’s External Reserves Receive $1 Billion Boost from Oil Sales and Exports

Nigeria’s external reserves grew by $1.063 billion within 24 hours on March 28, 2023 to $36.668 billion in a move suspected to be inflow from the proceed of crude oil and exports.

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United States Dollar - Investors King Ltd

Nigeria’s external reserves have received a significant boost of $1 billion from oil sales and exports, according to recent reports.

The increase resulted in a 0.11% appreciation in Naira value on Wednesday as the Naira to United States Dollar exchange rate moderated from N461.75 it closed on Tuesday to N451.24 at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) forex window.

However, despite the positive news, currency dealers maintained bids between N459.50 (low) and N462.13 (high) per dollar. At the parallel market, also known as the black market, the local currency traded at N744 per dollar on Wednesday.

Analysts at the FSDH research have predicted that the Nigerian Naira will continue to face pressure from high import costs and demand for foreign currency by businesses and individuals. However, they expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue intervening in the FX market to contain the pace of depreciation.

Nigeria’s external reserves grew by $1.063 billion within 24 hours on March 28, 2023 to $36.668 billion in a move suspected to be inflow from the proceed of crude oil and exports.

The decline in external reserves from US$37.1 billion in January 2023 to US$36.1 billion on March 15, 2023, has been attributed to interventions in the FX markets and limited foreign exchange inflows. However, rising oil production in recent months raises the prospect of reserves accretion in the second half of 2023, according to analysts.

The scarcity of foreign currency in the official market coupled with a high exchange rate of N745/US$ in the parallel market continues to drive high input costs and imported inflation.

It remains to be seen how the country will navigate these challenges in the coming months.

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Economy

Rivers State Customs Service Generates Over N54 Billion in Q1 2023

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Nigeria Customs Service

The Nigeria Customs Service, Area 2 Command in Onne, Rivers State realised N54.992 billion in revenue in the first (Q1) of 2023. 

According to the Command Controller, Comptroller Baba Imam, this amount realised is part of the N336 billion revenue projected for 2023.

Imam revealed this information while addressing journalists in Onne, Eleme Local Government Area of Rivers State on Tuesday.

This represents an increase of N1.133 billion when compared to the amount generated in the first quarter of 2022.

Imam revealed that the command made several seizures, which he stated is a reflection of their commitment to facilitating only legitimate trade in accordance with extant laws.

The seizures included 24 containers carrying refined vegetable oil, two containers carrying 1,165 cartons of Analgin injection and fireworks, and one 20ft of machete that was detained on documentation grounds until an end-user certificate was provided.

The duty-paid value of the seized containers was N94,652,168.39 million, while the duty-paid value of the seized vegetable oil containers was N833,172,538.42.

Imam stated, “In revenue generation, the command was given a target of N336 billion as revenue target for 2023.

“As of today, the command has generated a total revenue of N54, 992,123, 687.15 billion which transits to 16.3 per cent of the target. When compared to the same period last year, the Command has an increase in revenue of N1,132, 925, 556.82bn.

“This figure was realized in spite of not having vessels berth in Onne Port for some time due to the election atmosphere. We look forward to a continuous rise in revenue generation in the coming months as we expect vessels to berth on our coastline within the next few weeks.”

Speaking further on the command’s anti-smuggling activities, he said within the past few weeks, there has been a lot of seizures.

“This is made visible with the display of a total number which comprises 26 seized containers and one detained container for violation or contraventions of various customs laws and breach of procedures as provided under the revised import prohibition guidelines Schedule 3 Article 4 of the Common External Tariff 2022-2026 as well as Section 46 paragraph (b), (d), (e), (f) and 169 of Customs and Excise Management.

“Twenty four containers laden with refined vegetable oil comprising a total of 24,860 gallons of 25 and 10 litres of La-Jonic vegetable oil. Also seized were other two containers laden with 1,165 cartons of Analgin injection and fireworks with other items.”

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