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Oil Gains Marginally on Possible Demand Recovery in China

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices inched slightly higher on Wednesday as optimism for a demand recovery in China and expectations that major producers will maintain current output policy offset global recession worries.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, appreciated by 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $86.30 per barrel after falling by 2.3% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.20, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday.

“Expectations that China’s fuel demand will recover in the second half of the year are growing and are likely to support market sentiment,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

Analysts from the Bank of America Securities said the reopening of the Chinese economy after years of tough COVID restrictions could unleash a large wave of pent-up demand over the next 18 months.

On the supply side, volumes should remain steady for the medium term as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, is expected to keep its output policy unchanged.

An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the producer group’s current oil output policy when it meets next week, five OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday, as hopes for higher Chinese demand are balanced by worries over inflation and the global economy.

OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.

However, gains in oil prices were capped by a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories that was reported after the market settled on Tuesday.

U.S. crude stocks rose by about 3.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 20, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. That was triple the forecast for an about 1 million build in a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday.

Nissan’s Kikukawa, however, expects the build “to be temporary as the supply disruptions from a cold snap in the United States a few weeks ago would only impact data in the next couple of weeks”.

Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will be released later on Wednesday.

Kikukawa expects WTI to trade in a range between $75 and $85 a barrel in the coming weeks.

Markets are also watching out for interest rate decisions from central banks for more trading cues.

“It seems that the absence of hawkish Fed comments from the current blackout period has removed a key overhang for risk sentiments for now, providing some renewed traction back into growth,” Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, said in a note.

Investors are waiting to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will “react to recent downside surprise in inflation and growth” when it meets next week, the analyst added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

OPEC+ Delegates Seek Steady Oil Production Levels as Committee of Ministers Meet Next Week

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With the recent hike in the prices of oil at the international markets, the delegates of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have canvassed for a steady oil production output.

This is coming a few days before the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the organisation would meet to deliberate on the demand and supply chain of crude oil in the global space.

The meeting of the Advisory Committee of Ministers is said to hold online as top OPEC officials continue to push for unchanged oil production levels.

Investors King reports that there has been an uncertain recovery in global demand for oil as international oil prices had climbed in the past two weeks.

It was gathered that Saudi Arabia and its partners are planning to hold a review of output levels on February 1, 2023 after agreeing significant cutbacks late last year to keep world crude markets in balance.

While awaiting clarity on the recovery in consumption in China and the impact of sanctions on Russian supply, the delegates said they expected the Ministers not it tamper with the output.

The Opec+ is embracing conservative stance even China, the biggest oil importer in the world battles devastating effects of COVID-19 pandemic.

Also, Opec+ is expecting the full impact of European Union sanctions on member-country Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts at Eurasia Group have said, in a report, that there are possibilities of Opec+ maintaining the status quo beyond next week’s meeting.

According to the report, prices of oil have stabilised while there are significant levels of uncertainty surrounding both supply and demand.

It was gathered that feedback from the top OPEC hierarchy would go a long way in forming the decision to hold steady or not.

The Secretary-General of petroleum exporting countries, Haitham Al-Ghais has expressed hope on the global economy as the nascent rebound in China is tempered by weakness in advanced economies.

For Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Opec+ would be proactive and preemptive to keep markets in equilibrium.

The head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC, Helima Croft, said there were pointers that Saudi Arabia wants to adopt the policy of preemption and keep production constraints in place until there are clear indications that there is sufficient demand for additional supply.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Energy Aspects Ltd. revealed that Opec+ will only start to reverse its supply curbs, which were formally about 2 million barrels a day, and increase production in the second half of the year.

At this period, accelerating demand would have tightened the market.

Meanwhile, the 23-nation alliance is scheduled to meet at OPEC’s Vienna headquarters in early June to review production levels for other months in the year.

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Fuel Scarcity: IPMAN Decries 50% Reduction of Product Supply Since July 2022

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The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN has faulted the oil sector’s incapability to cater for the full fuel supply order of oil marketers nationwide.

Investors King learnt that the volume of products supplied to marketers dropped by 50 percent since July, 2022 which has worsened the fuel scarcity situation.

The Deputy National President of IPMAN, Zahra Mustapha, during a Television interview stressed that there is confusion in the nation’s oil sector.

Mustapha, who said the fuel subsidy issue is complex, explained that the federal government is overwhelmed by the burden of fuel subsidy which is not sustainable.

“The fact of the matter is that we are in a very complex situation because the burden of subsidy that the government is carrying is no more sustainable and the volume that the NNPC for now, being the sole importer of the petroleum product, PMS, has been hit hard, because of that the supply that we receive as the marketers at the loading point is being reduced by over 50 per cent.

“It doesn’t seem that they (NNPC) are bringing in more, if they are, we will be getting the volume we usually get before. Since July/August last year the volume we receive now is not up to 40 or 50 percent of what we usually get. As of today, the volume we are getting is not enough,” he said.

Mustapha stated that the situation has been reported to the oil sector regulatory bodies and the oil marketers are expecting their actions.

He further lamented the high supply cost and transportation which makes them sell it at a much higher rate to the consumers.

“We are supposed to get this product at N148 but we are buying at N22o and it keeps increasing. 240 in Lagos, 235 in Warri, 240 in Port Harcourt, in Calabar it is as high as N250 per litre for marketers, and you buy and transport yourself to where your retail outlet is. We cannot buy the product between 220 to 240 naira, transport it for about N50, which is already N300, then expect the marketer to sell to the public for N200 or N190. It is not realisable.

“There are a lot of confusions in the industry, which the government must come in and address these confusions so that the common man can get the product for the approved price,” said Mustapha.

 

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FG Fixes April as Deadline For Oil Blocs Pre-bid Processes

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The pre-bid exercise for the new seven deep offshore open oil blocs will be concluded by April 2023, the Federal Government has said.

Investors King reports that the pre-bid exercise began on January 3, 2023 after the launching of the bid round portal.

The Federal Government had earlier called on local and international investors with interest and experience in deep water operations for the oil blocs bidding according to the fiscal provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.

Speaking at the pre-bid conference for the 2022/2023 licensing round held in Lagos, the Chief Executive, Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe noted that the bidding exercise is taking place after 15 years.

He spoke extensively on the theme: ‘Growing Upstream Investment in Nigeria through Licencing Round: The Bid Process and Opportunities.’

Komolafe stated that the four months exercise will involve; registration/pre-qualification, data prying/purchase, technical bid submission/presentation, technical bid evaluation, and commercial bid conference.

He highlighted the new seven deep offshore open blocs as: PPL-300-DO, PPL-301-DO, PPL-302-DO, PPL-303-DO, PPL-304-DO, PPL-305-DO and PPL-306-DO.

“The seven deep offshore blocks, covering an area of approximately 6,700 km2 in water depths of 1,150m to 3,100m, are on offer in this mini-bid round. These are intended to be the first in a series of bid rounds aimed at further development of our prospective petroleum basins.

“The mini-bid round is a market-driven programme expected to outperform the last bid round which was held in April 2007 during which a total of 45 blocs were put on offer under a different regulatory regime (the Petroleum Act, 1969),” the NUPRC boss said.

In his remarks at the event, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva averred that the bidding process was of international standard with global sustainability goals in view.

He said the licensing round would be of great benefit to the stakeholders, adding that “the seven deep offshore blocks have been thoroughly evaluated and are believed to have significant potential for hydrocarbon reserves. They are in some of the most promising areas of the deep waters of Nigeria which have been de-risked by other producing fields nearby.”

 

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