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Oil Economy Still in Need of a Leg-up – Coronation Merchant

The oil economy declined by -11.8% y/y in Q2 ’22 compared with 6.6% y/y recorded in Q1 ’22

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Crude oil - Investors King

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the oil economy declined by -11.8% y/y in Q2 ’22 compared with 6.6% y/y recorded in Q1 ’22. This decline can be largely attributed to production cuts on the back of oil theft and infrastructural deficits.

Turning to contribution to GDP, the oil sector accounted for 6.3% to the GDP compared with 6.6% recorded in the  previous quarter. Meanwhile, the non-oil sector contributed 93.7% highlighting the sector as the major driver of the economy.

In February, oil prices exceeded USD100/b after Russia’s attack on Ukraine exacerbated concerns around disruptions to global energy supply. The Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as the sanctions against Russia impacted global oil supply. Furthermore, the US announced a ban on Russian oil on 08 March, which resulted in further upticks in oil prices.

Although oil prices had been volatile since the Russia-Ukrainian crisis began, prices began to dip below USD100/b in August. This was largely driven by concerns around a global economic downturn amid monetary policy tightening by central banks and covid-19 restrictions in China (the largest energy consumer).

Following the oil price decline, in its October ’22 meeting, OPEC unanimously agreed to adjust oil production downwards by 2mbpd in November ‘22. The adjustment was intended to spur a recovery in oil prices. Since the announcement, Brent crude price has increased by 2% to USD95.1/b.

OPEC data shows that Nigeria produced about 1.14mbpd of oil in September ’22 compared with 1.18mbpd recorded in the previous month. This is below the expected 1.6mbpd OPEC quota. Furthermore, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) noted that production from 13 out of 29 oil terminals declined between July to September.

The worst hit crude terminals include Bonny, Brass and Forcados.

In a bid to address the oil theft menace in the Niger Delta region, we understand that the FGN awarded a pipeline surveillance contract worth N48bn per annum run within the region in August. A few months after the contract was awarded, about 58 illegal connections were discovered in both Delta and Bayelsa states.

The FGN further disclosed that a probe mechanism has been setup to ensure culprits face the full extent of the law.
Despite developments regarding clampdowns on illegal oil refineries and bunkering, Nigeria may struggle to fully benefit from the global oil market. The latest commodity output report released by the World Bank (in October) disclosed that the benchmark crude oil price, Brent crude is expected to average USD92/b in 2023.

In an oil producing economy like Nigeria, oil price increases should reflect more revenue dividend as it is expected to enhance foreign exchange earnings and build reserves.

However, payment of petrol subsidy and low oil production occasioned by the activities of oil vandals have hampered oil revenue growth.

We understand that the effects of global warming have triggered the need for countries to shift attention to renewable energy sources. However, Nigeria’s oil economy should experience a face-lift on the back of the Dangote refinery which has an expected refining capacity of c.650,000 bpd.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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IMF Urges Nigeria to End Fuel and Electricity Subsidies

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In a recent report titled “Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to terminate all forms of fuel and electricity subsidies, arguing that they predominantly benefit the wealthy rather than the intended vulnerable population.

The IMF’s recommendation comes amidst Nigeria’s struggle with record-high inflation and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of subsidies, noting that they are costly and poorly targeted.

According to the IMF, higher-income groups tend to benefit more from these subsidies, resulting in a misallocation of resources. With pump prices and electricity tariffs currently below cost-recovery levels, subsidy costs are projected to increase significantly, reaching up to three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The IMF suggests that once Nigeria’s social protection schemes are enhanced and inflation is brought under control, subsidies should be phased out.

The government’s social intervention scheme, developed with support from the World Bank, aims to provide targeted support to vulnerable households, potentially benefiting around 15 million households or 60 million Nigerians.

However, concerns persist regarding the removal of subsidies, particularly in light of the recent announcement of an increase in electricity tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

While the government has taken steps to reduce subsidies, including the removal of the costly petrol subsidy, there are lingering challenges in fully implementing these reforms.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to be higher than anticipated, according to the IMF staff’s analysis.

The persistence of fuel and electricity subsidies is expected to contribute to this fiscal imbalance, along with lower oil and gas revenue projections and higher interest costs.

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