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Stocks Ease as US Midterm Results Filter in

Investors are more focused on the inflation data on Thursday and whether that will pave the way for a slower pace of tightening in December and early next year

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Market summary

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Equity markets are a little lower on Wednesday as investors continue to watch events unfold in the US for a sense of what impact they’ll have on sentiment.

The impact of the midterms will probably be short-lived, if impactful at all, as far as markets are concerned. Of course, the political implications may be significant if Democrats can manage to retain control of the House and Senate but at this stage, only one of those looks plausible which means deadlock in Washington.

The bigger takeaway from the election may well be what support there is for Trump-backed candidates and what that does for his own re-election hopes in two years. But that’s unlikely to sway the markets now, not with so much else to focus on.

Investors are more focused on the inflation data on Thursday and whether that will pave the way for a slower pace of tightening in December and early next year. There’s unease about the central bank’s views on the terminal rate but those could abate if we see a favourable inflation number tomorrow.

Oil eases amid a surge in inventories

Oil prices are a little lower again on Wednesday after falling around 3% a day earlier. This came following a strong move in recent weeks in which crude prices rallied around 20% on the back of the OPEC+ output cut and the prospect of less restrictive Covid measures in China, which have not been confirmed.

The API inventory data came late in the day on Tuesday after the bulk of the losses had already occurred. If the large inventory build is confirmed by EIA today, it will be interesting to see if it generates a bigger reaction in the markets, with Brent now trading back in the middle of the $90-100 range.

Gold surges ahead of CPI

A surge in gold on Tuesday saw the yellow metal smash through $1,680 and then $1,700 resistance and settle above here, as risk appetite improved and the dollar retreated. While it’s hard to attribute the rally to any particular event, the technical loss of both of those resistance levels won’t have done it any harm.

The question now is whether it can hold onto those gains once the latest inflation report drops. It may well be that gold’s revival, and the dollar’s retreat, are driven by an expectation that the CPI data will be favourable but we’ve seen what the dangers of that are before. Especially when it comes to inflation data. The next test to the upside for gold falls around $1,730, while prior resistance of $1,700 and $1,680 could now become support.

Turmoil at FTX sees cryptos plunge

For a long time, bitcoin has aligned itself with broader risk appetite in the markets but it goes without saying that Tuesday was not one of those days. Cryptocurrencies have been pummeled at the start of the week with bitcoin down almost 20% in two days at one stage amid concerns over FTX and the implications for the FTT token.

Alameda’s balance sheet is a major factor in those fears which has seen that pain spread to Solana, with contagion fears dragging on the crypto space as a whole. Bitcoin fell to a near-two-year low at one stage and is down almost 3% again today. Nervy days ahead for cryptos as Binance looks to come to the rescue.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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