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Global Risks Jumped Since April 2022, Says IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said global risks jumped just two months later amid heightened inflation and global uncertainty.

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Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said global risks jumped just two months later amid heightened inflation and global uncertainty.

In its Global Financial Stability Report, IMF said changes in a series of key economic fundamentals after Russia attacked Ukraine have increased global risks in recent months, stated Tobias Adrian, IMF’s Financial Counsellor.

Amid the highest inflation in decades and extraordinary uncertainty about the outlook, markets have been extremely volatile.

“We have high inflation and the deteriorating global economic outlook. At the same time, we have geopolitical risks with economic spillovers from the war in Ukraine. On top of all of this, global financial conditions have tightened as central banks continue to raise interest rates. Our latest Global Financial Stability Report shows that financial stability risks have increased since our last report, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. Looking at the global banking sector, we can see that it has withstood the pressures up to now, helped by high levels of capital and ample liquidity.

“However, the IMF’s global bank stress test shows that these buffers may not be enough for some banks. For example, if we were to have a situation in 2023 with an abrupt and sharp tightening of global financial conditions enough to send the economy into recession coupled with high inflation, then up to 29% of bank assets in emerging markets would breach capital requirements. At the same time, most banks in advanced economies would pull through,” said Adrian.

Confronting the specter of stubbornly high inflation, central banks in advanced economies and many emerging markets have had to move to an accelerated path of monetary policy normalization to prevent inflationary pressures from becoming entrenched. As an intended consequence of monetary tightening, global financial conditions have tightened in most regions.

“We see that rising interest rates have brought on additional stress. Both governments facing high debt levels, as well as non-bank financial institutions such as insurance companies, pension funds, and asset managers dealing with stretched balance sheets. We also see European financial markets showing signs of strain. The recent volatility in the UK and China’s sharper than expected slowdown also raised concerns. Emerging markets more broadly are confronting multiple risks. These stemmed from high borrowing costs, high inflation, volatile commodity markets and heightened uncertainty about the global economic outlook. The strains are particularly severe for smaller developing economies,” added Adrian.

According to the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework, where appropriate, some emerging market economies managing the global tightening cycle could consider using some combination of targeted foreign exchange interventions, capital flow measures, and/or other actions to help smooth exchange rate adjustments to reduce financial stability risks and maintain appropriate monetary policy transmission.

“Central banks must act resolutely to bring inflation back to target and avoid the anchoring of inflation expectations, which could damage their credibility. They need to ensure clear communication in three areas. On their policy decisions, on their commitment to the price stability objectives, and on the need to further normalize monetary policy.

“In managing the global tightening cycle, emerging markets could consider targeted foreign exchange interventions and capital flow measures. Both of these would help smooth exchange rate adjustments and reduce financial stability risks. Emerging and frontier markets should reduce the risk from debt vulnerabilities, including through early contact with creditors and support from the international community.

“Finally, for countries near debt distress, bilateral and private sector creditors should find ways to coordinate on preemptive restructuring to avoid costly and hard defaults,” said Adrian.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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